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Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
(07-31-2017 02:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  That's what I meant by elevating the AAC, or as you suggest a new conference formed from the best of the three and B.Y.U.. If their champ is viable in a year when another of the P conferences might have a 3 loss champ then it serves the purposes well, especially as a legal buffer since you will have elevated virtually all of the schools which might have a case for having been excluded: Connecticut, South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, E.C.U., B.Y.U., and possibly Cincinnati (if they aren't ACC bound). The only reason I suggested the AAC is because it is fully ESPN held and when those brands like Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and T.C.U. move to the new conference it can't be a rebuilt Big 12 if ESPN is looking for sole ownership of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas product. A rebuilt Big 12 would contractually be 50% FOX owned (unless we wait until 2024). B.Y.U. is already under ESPN contract, and a new one at that.

So we are really not disagreeing on this. It would be like what we have now, only more concentrated at the top, and more inclusive in the new conference.

Remember too that Wichita has partially joined the AAC and Tulsa is already in it. So by directing the Big 12 remnant there ESPN gains full control of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas as states and markets (should Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas the schools wind up in ESPN hands.

My only contention would be that I think the playoff will expand to 8 and that all 5 champions may be guaranteed a spot. The committee can then choose 3 wildcards.

The expansion of the playoff is one of the few ways the networks have to create more value.

Let's say that only 4 leave the Big 12 and 6 are left behind to rebuild...

If we assume Cincinnati goes to the ACC then we could reason that the Big 12 adds these 6 or something similar: BYU, Boise State, Houston, UConn, UCF, and USF. The quality of that league isn't immense, but it's probably more marketable than the current AAC. For the remainder of the AAC, unless they go OTT, I think they would end up with ESPN anyway. There's really nowhere else to go. At one point, FOX did invest in the CUSA, but they gave it up. CBS still owns the majority of the MWC, I believe, but I'm guessing part of the reason for that is there's only so many time slots ESPN can offer.

You'd probably still have 5 leagues on the lower rung and any deficiencies in the markets tapped could be filled with additions from the top FCS programs. So you've got a large amount of content for the P5 and a larger playoff to top it off. You've got the same deal with the G5 although I think their playoff could range from 12-16 and completely supplant their bowl structure.
08-01-2017 07:21 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
(08-01-2017 07:21 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(07-31-2017 02:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  That's what I meant by elevating the AAC, or as you suggest a new conference formed from the best of the three and B.Y.U.. If their champ is viable in a year when another of the P conferences might have a 3 loss champ then it serves the purposes well, especially as a legal buffer since you will have elevated virtually all of the schools which might have a case for having been excluded: Connecticut, South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, E.C.U., B.Y.U., and possibly Cincinnati (if they aren't ACC bound). The only reason I suggested the AAC is because it is fully ESPN held and when those brands like Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and T.C.U. move to the new conference it can't be a rebuilt Big 12 if ESPN is looking for sole ownership of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas product. A rebuilt Big 12 would contractually be 50% FOX owned (unless we wait until 2024). B.Y.U. is already under ESPN contract, and a new one at that.

So we are really not disagreeing on this. It would be like what we have now, only more concentrated at the top, and more inclusive in the new conference.

Remember too that Wichita has partially joined the AAC and Tulsa is already in it. So by directing the Big 12 remnant there ESPN gains full control of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas as states and markets (should Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas the schools wind up in ESPN hands.

My only contention would be that I think the playoff will expand to 8 and that all 5 champions may be guaranteed a spot. The committee can then choose 3 wildcards.

The expansion of the playoff is one of the few ways the networks have to create more value.

Let's say that only 4 leave the Big 12 and 6 are left behind to rebuild...

If we assume Cincinnati goes to the ACC then we could reason that the Big 12 adds these 6 or something similar: BYU, Boise State, Houston, UConn, UCF, and USF. The quality of that league isn't immense, but it's probably more marketable than the current AAC. For the remainder of the AAC, unless they go OTT, I think they would end up with ESPN anyway. There's really nowhere else to go. At one point, FOX did invest in the CUSA, but they gave it up. CBS still owns the majority of the MWC, I believe, but I'm guessing part of the reason for that is there's only so many time slots ESPN can offer.

You'd probably still have 5 leagues on the lower rung and any deficiencies in the markets tapped could be filled with additions from the top FCS programs. So you've got a large amount of content for the P5 and a larger playoff to top it off. You've got the same deal with the G5 although I think their playoff could range from 12-16 and completely supplant their bowl structure.

We could possibly move to 8 and have it selected as you say. But, I think that would be the end of the CCG. The number of total games and the time frame would be one issue and being the loser of the CCG and possibly missing your slot in the 8 would be the other.
08-01-2017 10:52 PM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
(08-01-2017 10:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-01-2017 07:21 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(07-31-2017 02:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  That's what I meant by elevating the AAC, or as you suggest a new conference formed from the best of the three and B.Y.U.. If their champ is viable in a year when another of the P conferences might have a 3 loss champ then it serves the purposes well, especially as a legal buffer since you will have elevated virtually all of the schools which might have a case for having been excluded: Connecticut, South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, E.C.U., B.Y.U., and possibly Cincinnati (if they aren't ACC bound). The only reason I suggested the AAC is because it is fully ESPN held and when those brands like Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and T.C.U. move to the new conference it can't be a rebuilt Big 12 if ESPN is looking for sole ownership of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas product. A rebuilt Big 12 would contractually be 50% FOX owned (unless we wait until 2024). B.Y.U. is already under ESPN contract, and a new one at that.

So we are really not disagreeing on this. It would be like what we have now, only more concentrated at the top, and more inclusive in the new conference.

Remember too that Wichita has partially joined the AAC and Tulsa is already in it. So by directing the Big 12 remnant there ESPN gains full control of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas as states and markets (should Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas the schools wind up in ESPN hands.

My only contention would be that I think the playoff will expand to 8 and that all 5 champions may be guaranteed a spot. The committee can then choose 3 wildcards.

The expansion of the playoff is one of the few ways the networks have to create more value.

Let's say that only 4 leave the Big 12 and 6 are left behind to rebuild...

If we assume Cincinnati goes to the ACC then we could reason that the Big 12 adds these 6 or something similar: BYU, Boise State, Houston, UConn, UCF, and USF. The quality of that league isn't immense, but it's probably more marketable than the current AAC. For the remainder of the AAC, unless they go OTT, I think they would end up with ESPN anyway. There's really nowhere else to go. At one point, FOX did invest in the CUSA, but they gave it up. CBS still owns the majority of the MWC, I believe, but I'm guessing part of the reason for that is there's only so many time slots ESPN can offer.

You'd probably still have 5 leagues on the lower rung and any deficiencies in the markets tapped could be filled with additions from the top FCS programs. So you've got a large amount of content for the P5 and a larger playoff to top it off. You've got the same deal with the G5 although I think their playoff could range from 12-16 and completely supplant their bowl structure.

We could possibly move to 8 and have it selected as you say. But, I think that would be the end of the CCG. The number of total games and the time frame would be one issue and being the loser of the CCG and possibly missing your slot in the 8 would be the other.

Without changing the current structure, could the playoffs be expanded to 6? There are 3 access bowls which could accommodate 6 teams, right?
4 P teams, a G champ and one wild card.
Once the playoff contracts expire, then we could see a change in formats. I don't think anyone would want to pay the army of lawyers that would be necessary of untangle all of the CFP contracts.
08-02-2017 04:46 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
BTW, looking at he the AAC.
If you count Tulane, Memphis and Cincinnati as eastern teams, and assume that BYU merges into the AAC (west) then there is still a need of 4 teams in the west to form a 16 team league. West Virginia as an addition to the AAC could lend some real cred to AAC football in the east and give WVU access to more Florida talent through UCF and USF....Tulane moves west maybe with Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
08-02-2017 05:04 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
Outside the box:

What does a network need to survive? Inventory


How can the American be elevated with more money? Get them a network

How do you marry the expanded American conference with the LHN? Texas goes independent and takes a "Notre Dame" deal with the American (but plays an uneven schedule...more western division games that in the east).

B1G stays the same
ACC stays the same (Notre Dame stays a partial)
SEC stays the same

PAC adds: Oklahoma, Kansas and Iowa State for 15 or Kansas State for 16

American adds: West Virginia, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State (maybe Kansas State)


American West:
Oklahoma State, Tulsa, Texas Tech, TCU, SMU, Baylor, Houston, Tulane (do you think Texas would be happy playing in this division?)

American East:
Memphis, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple, East Carolina, USF, UCF and West Virginia

Navy remains football only (plays mostly an eastern schedule). Wichita State stays basketball only.
Texas is in heaven, ESPN has content for the LHN and the PAC has some meaningful properties in the CTZ.
Six team playoff (see above).

BOOM!
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2017 07:21 AM by XLance.)
08-02-2017 07:15 AM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
More likely, if the B12 loses Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa St. (or whoever) --> backfills with AAC inventory:

B12 WEST: Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Kansas St., Houston/Memphis/Tulane
B12 EAST: WVU, Cincinnati, UConn, Temple, USF, UCF

Affiliates with independent Texas for Olympic sports and OOC football and bowl games.
08-03-2017 04:31 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
Well Iger indicated today that Disney will be looking to invest in original product for its networks and that included sports. So maybe 18 isn't crazy if the Big 10 and PAC don't play ball and maybe 16 is in line if they do.

Anyway you cut it I like the odds of the SEC and ACC acquiring key properties if Disney opens the war chest to boost original inventory.
08-09-2017 10:02 PM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Post: #28
Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
(08-09-2017 10:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Well Iger indicated today that Disney will be looking to invest in original product for its networks and that included sports. So maybe 18 isn't crazy if the Big 10 and PAC don't play ball and maybe 16 is in line if they do.

Anyway you cut it I like the odds of the SEC and ACC acquiring key properties if Disney opens the war chest to boost original inventory.


If Disney "opens the war chest" then Fox is done.

But what direction does ESPN go in? Split the B12 between the SEC & ACC or merge the brands with the PAC & own 3 power conferences?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2017 09:45 AM by Lenvillecards.)
08-10-2017 08:42 AM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
(08-10-2017 08:42 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(08-09-2017 10:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Well Iger indicated today that Disney will be looking to invest in original product for its networks and that included sports. So maybe 18 isn't crazy if the Big 10 and PAC don't play ball and maybe 16 is in line if they do.

Anyway you cut it I like the odds of the SEC and ACC acquiring key properties if Disney opens the war chest to boost original inventory.


If Disney "opens the war chest" then Fox is done.

But what direction does ESPN go in? Split the B12 between the SEC & ACC or merge the brands with the PAC & own 3 power conferences?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think they'd have to wait a few years before they could own the PAC. Theoretically, they could buy the PACN at any time, but FOX still owns about half of the T1 and T2 content.

All that will be available at the next negotiation, but that won't be until about 2025.
08-10-2017 10:29 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Let's Assume that the Final Phase in Realignment Is About the CFP
(08-10-2017 10:29 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(08-10-2017 08:42 AM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  
(08-09-2017 10:02 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Well Iger indicated today that Disney will be looking to invest in original product for its networks and that included sports. So maybe 18 isn't crazy if the Big 10 and PAC don't play ball and maybe 16 is in line if they do.

Anyway you cut it I like the odds of the SEC and ACC acquiring key properties if Disney opens the war chest to boost original inventory.


If Disney "opens the war chest" then Fox is done.

But what direction does ESPN go in? Split the B12 between the SEC & ACC or merge the brands with the PAC & own 3 power conferences?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think they'd have to wait a few years before they could own the PAC. Theoretically, they could buy the PACN at any time, but FOX still owns about half of the T1 and T2 content.

All that will be available at the next negotiation, but that won't be until about 2025.

FOX and ESPN merely lease the rights to the PAC. I think the distinction between leasing and purchasing the rights has to do with the authority to determine game times, and who is on the tube. But anyway it means the PAC retains more control and it is one reason that FOX and ESPN pay less.
08-10-2017 11:49 AM
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