Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
What non-power schools...?
Author Message
_C2_ Offline
The King of Overanalysis
*

Posts: 17,146
Joined: Feb 2008
Reputation: 349
I Root For: Houston
Location: Near Seawall Town
Post: #21
RE: What non-power schools...?
To become P5 is about luck, timing and connections. It's old money versus new money. If the plate tectonics were shifting in 1985, maybe BYU is in the Big 12 or Pac-X because of how well they were doing.

Bottom line is, attendance and winning guarantee nothing. There's only so many rooms at the inn and the early bird gets the worm. I mean, Rutgers and Wake Forest are in the club for goodness sake.
07-09-2017 10:06 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BruceMcF Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,990
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 102
I Root For: Reds/Buckeyes/.
Location:
Post: #22
RE: What non-power schools...?
(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-09-2017 02:19 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  ...would your power conference legitimately consider?

Seriously, are there any non-power schools that could contend for a spot in your conference?

Big 10 if all else they have planned fails possibly Connecticut. 1 chance in 50.

Not "if all else fails" ... if all else fails, the Big Ten stands pat.

If, however, the Big Ten has ONE school that wants to come, and none of the power schools they would prefer as a #16 is available, UConn could conceivably sneak in as a #16. Looking at the parallel thread on non-institutional support of Go5 schools ... all of the other 14 would be even less plausible than UConn.

But the #15 would have to be a real home run for that scenario to actually be feasible. It would have to be basically carrying the weight of two adds all on its own.
07-09-2017 10:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 13,883
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 700
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #23
RE: What non-power schools...?
(07-09-2017 10:06 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  To become P5 is about luck, timing and connections. It's old money versus new money. If the plate tectonics were shifting in 1985, maybe BYU is in the Big 12 or Pac-X because of how well they were doing.

Bottom line is, attendance and winning guarantee nothing. There's only so many rooms at the inn and the early bird gets the worm. I mean, Rutgers and Wake Forest are in the club for goodness sake.

It's about the longest established schools clamoring to survive the huge cutbacks coming because of a 20 Trillion dollar debt that we have no way of paying or covering except through radical cuts in all forms, and inclusive of higher education. It has not been about pride, even though message board posters have made it seem that way. It is in short about survival. And since most members of each state's house are graduates of that states larger and older universities they have more representation when those cuts finally come.

Realignment has taken place as large schools struggle to secure new revenue streams as old independent donors die out and corporations take their place (prompting schools to hire teams of attorneys to make sure that when their gifts are given that intellectual property rights aren't forfeited with the receipt of their gifts and grants). TV revenue from sports is an easy mark without said strings. So you see C2 they aren't consolidating out of greed and arrogance. They are consolidating more like the first class passengers did on the Titanic, out of fear.

There is a world of hurt coming down eventually and college football realignment will just be a minor detail in a footnote of a much greater change when it does finally happen.
(This post was last modified: 07-09-2017 10:46 PM by JRsec.)
07-09-2017 10:43 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
_C2_ Offline
The King of Overanalysis
*

Posts: 17,146
Joined: Feb 2008
Reputation: 349
I Root For: Houston
Location: Near Seawall Town
Post: #24
RE: What non-power schools...?
However you stamp it, it's rarely about merit, that's about only a small part of it. Just like in the real world, the best person doesn't always get the job/promotion and likewise, it works the same way in college athletics. That was my point.
07-09-2017 11:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stugray2 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,109
Joined: Jan 2017
Reputation: 42
I Root For: tOSU SJSU
Location:
Post: #25
RE: What non-power schools...?
(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-09-2017 02:19 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  ...would your power conference legitimately consider?

Seriously, are there any non-power schools that could contend for a spot in your conference?

Cincinnati to the ACC or SEC? Connecticut to the B1G or ACC? UNLV or New Mexico to the PAC? Anyone to the XII or is it a dead man walking?

Big 10 if all else they have planned fails possibly Connecticut. 1 chance in 50.
This is correct, but the odds are possibly higher, as in 1 in 20

(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  SEC if all else fails they sit at 14 for a long long time and if E.C.U. or South Florida improve enough to get their academic ranking within range and an R1 status maybe in 30 to 40 years they get a look. 1 chance in 100.
you overestimate the odds by two orders of magnitude, try 1 in 10,000

(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ACC if Notre Dame has a hankering for Cincinnati for some reason and is willing to go all in maybe. 1 chance in 10.
Since the hankering is zero, the chances are zero

(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Big 12 most likely will be picked apart by the others. They've already exhausted a search and decided no. Little to no chance.
By this answer I think you mean while the B12 is a power conference. If a rump remains as a non-power, they are the most likely

(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  PAC 12 is the most likely to promote current G5's IMO. U.N.L.V., New Mexico,and Hawaii might one day get a look. 1 chance in 3.
You are correct the P12 may accept a G5 school, as a 16th should they pick up three Texas schools (the travel ban thing will be resolved one way or another in five years).

But the schools you list have no chance. UNLV is in there with Boise State academically. Like Frank the Tank, you are definitely an easterner who does not hear all the jokes about UNLV. The academic numbers are dreadful. Hawaii is zero value, ridiculously expensive travel and kickoff/tip-off times are 1 AM eastern.

If the Pac does reach for a G5 school the only choices that has strong enough academics and research are Rice and Colorado State. Colorado State is the most likely, as Rice just doesn't invest much in athletics. The biggest competition is likely to come from a school like Iowa State or Kansas (if they are not B1G bound).

New Mexico goes in a pile of "just not enough of ..." schools that includes the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State, San Diego State and Houston.



You final two paragraphs were an unusual stream of conscience that got a little out there. Cal, UCLA, Stanford, USC, and UW aren't going anywhere, and that means neither are Oregon, OSU, Wazzu or Utah. This group just has to figure out how to make the P12 work. A merger with the B12 will look like the SWC merger with the Big 8, which is to say Texas will dictate 2 schools and possibly negotiate a 3rd to go with them to for a new Pac conference. OU is going a different direction.
07-09-2017 11:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 13,883
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 700
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #26
RE: What non-power schools...?
(07-09-2017 11:51 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-09-2017 02:19 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  ...would your power conference legitimately consider?

Seriously, are there any non-power schools that could contend for a spot in your conference?

Cincinnati to the ACC or SEC? Connecticut to the B1G or ACC? UNLV or New Mexico to the PAC? Anyone to the XII or is it a dead man walking?

Big 10 if all else they have planned fails possibly Connecticut. 1 chance in 50.
This is correct, but the odds are possibly higher, as in 1 in 20

(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  SEC if all else fails they sit at 14 for a long long time and if E.C.U. or South Florida improve enough to get their academic ranking within range and an R1 status maybe in 30 to 40 years they get a look. 1 chance in 100.
you overestimate the odds by two orders of magnitude, try 1 in 10,000

(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ACC if Notre Dame has a hankering for Cincinnati for some reason and is willing to go all in maybe. 1 chance in 10.
Since the hankering is zero, the chances are zero

(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Big 12 most likely will be picked apart by the others. They've already exhausted a search and decided no. Little to no chance.
By this answer I think you mean while the B12 is a power conference. If a rump remains as a non-power, they are the most likely

(07-09-2017 02:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  PAC 12 is the most likely to promote current G5's IMO. U.N.L.V., New Mexico,and Hawaii might one day get a look. 1 chance in 3.
You are correct the P12 may accept a G5 school, as a 16th should they pick up three Texas schools (the travel ban thing will be resolved one way or another in five years).

But the schools you list have no chance. UNLV is in there with Boise State academically. Like Frank the Tank, you are definitely an easterner who does not hear all the jokes about UNLV. The academic numbers are dreadful. Hawaii is zero value, ridiculously expensive travel and kickoff/tip-off times are 1 AM eastern.

If the Pac does reach for a G5 school the only choices that has strong enough academics and research are Rice and Colorado State. Colorado State is the most likely, as Rice just doesn't invest much in athletics. The biggest competition is likely to come from a school like Iowa State or Kansas (if they are not B1G bound).

New Mexico goes in a pile of "just not enough of ..." schools that includes the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas State, San Diego State and Houston.



You final two paragraphs were an unusual stream of conscience that got a little out there. Cal, UCLA, Stanford, USC, and UW aren't going anywhere, and that means neither are Oregon, OSU, Wazzu or Utah. This group just has to figure out how to make the P12 work. A merger with the B12 will look like the SWC merger with the Big 8, which is to say Texas will dictate 2 schools and possibly negotiate a 3rd to go with them to for a new Pac conference. OU is going a different direction.

1. Things are slow so trying to generate some conversation is a good thing.

2. As to the G5 potentially getting into the Big 10, ACC or SEC, I was kind on the chance estimations, but then it is matter of letting the audience speak.

3. I must have typed Big 12 instead of Big 10 with regards to absorbing the 6 - 10 of the PAC into the Big 10. You may not think so, but should Texas and Oklahoma be off the menu for the Big 10 eventually they will get around to finding someway to incorporate the West coast into the finances, especially if the PAC doesn't get it together. They are still slipping.

But you're dreaming if you think OU is headed to the Big 10. And there is no lure for Texas to the PAC. If Texas has to do something it will be whatever gives them the greatest exposure in Texas and makes them more money, and if it happens within the next 5 years it will be an ESPN held conference. And because of that my first statement in this paragraph is true. OU will not cut itself off from Texas and head North. No Texas, no Oklahoma for the B1G.

Other than that it is the same spew from you.
(This post was last modified: 07-10-2017 12:09 AM by JRsec.)
07-10-2017 12:04 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
templefootballfan Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,640
Joined: Jan 2005
Reputation: 54
I Root For: TU & BGSU & TEX
Location: CLAYMONT DE
Post: #27
RE: What non-power schools...?
Hawaii gives you 5 xtra FB games & 20 xtra BB games
Haw midnight [ET] start times r 9[PT] starts
1am {PT] start times work for conf network
07-10-2017 12:28 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DavidSt Online
Heisman
*

Posts: 8,681
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 76
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #28
RE: What non-power schools...?
(07-09-2017 06:30 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  
(07-09-2017 06:14 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(07-09-2017 05:10 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  G5 with P5 chances

SEC: ECU, SMU, UCF or USF
ACC: Cincinnati, Navy, Temple, UCF or USF
BIG: UConn, Buffalo
PAC: UNLV, New Mexico, Hawaii, Houston, Rice

Again, I am not getting the REGION logic used by G5 schools. It will be still be based on new markets. Regions is not a P5 worry.

ACC -
- Navy only if ND wants them. The other big issue will be Army/Navy game. ACC will not want the game after the regular season and ACC requires equal revenue sharing. Navy may say no even if ND wants them in the AAC.

- SMU and Houston - Texas Market (SMU is the better fit with other private schools, Houston to me is the better option being the larger school)

- Cincy - Ohio market

I doubt U_F or Temple could get enought support from the ACC schools. Miami & FSU will not want the Florida Schools and it is not like Pitt and Temple has a historic rival.

The holy grail for Swofford & the ACC is to get ND and Texas as full time members. So I think the ACC does nothing until 2023-25 until the B12 Schools figures out what they are doing.

I realize it is about new markets. I could see the ACC taking another Florida school to make the southern the school happy if the ACC toolbox WVU or Cincinnati. I could also see the ACC going after Memphis to get into Tennessee market.

BIG: wants Va/NC market, New England market, and Kansas City market.
ACC: Needs Mid-Atlantic market. Could take Navy or Temple for DC or Philadelphia market. Also could go into Ohio market.
SEC: NC/VA market and would like D.C. Market. Also wants Dallas market.
PAC: Need Texas market. Could go after Hawaii market as well for later games and to try to get into the Asian/Australian market. Could solidify Las Vegas market.

Big 12: Needs more markets. Surprised they haven't gone after NC, TN, OH, FL, and New Orleans. They could add ECU, UCF, USF, Tulane, Memphis, and Cincinnati and double their market.


Big 10 wants Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia markets. They want the AAU ACC members and Florida State to go with it.
Big 10 Wishlist?
Notre Dame
Texas
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Kansas
North Carolina
Virginia
07-10-2017 04:59 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DavidSt Online
Heisman
*

Posts: 8,681
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 76
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #29
RE: What non-power schools...?
(07-09-2017 10:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-09-2017 10:06 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  To become P5 is about luck, timing and connections. It's old money versus new money. If the plate tectonics were shifting in 1985, maybe BYU is in the Big 12 or Pac-X because of how well they were doing.

Bottom line is, attendance and winning guarantee nothing. There's only so many rooms at the inn and the early bird gets the worm. I mean, Rutgers and Wake Forest are in the club for goodness sake.

It's about the longest established schools clamoring to survive the huge cutbacks coming because of a 20 Trillion dollar debt that we have no way of paying or covering except through radical cuts in all forms, and inclusive of higher education. It has not been about pride, even though message board posters have made it seem that way. It is in short about survival. And since most members of each state's house are graduates of that states larger and older universities they have more representation when those cuts finally come.

Realignment has taken place as large schools struggle to secure new revenue streams as old independent donors die out and corporations take their place (prompting schools to hire teams of attorneys to make sure that when their gifts are given that intellectual property rights aren't forfeited with the receipt of their gifts and grants). TV revenue from sports is an easy mark without said strings. So you see C2 they aren't consolidating out of greed and arrogance. They are consolidating more like the first class passengers did on the Titanic, out of fear.

There is a world of hurt coming down eventually and college football realignment will just be a minor detail in a footnote of a much greater change when it does finally happen.


That would be an issue in many states now. Many politicians are graduate of smaller colleges and Universities. They are usually conservative schools. Many Arkansas politicians are from Arkansas Tech, Arkansas State, UAPB, Southern Arkansas, UCA, Harding, Ouachita Baptist and so forth. They would like to defund University of Arkansas because that school became too Liberal than some. Texas and Illinois are also another group. There are some Illinois lawmakers wanted Southern Illinois-Edwardsville to join the Big 10 because they are in the St. Louis market. That clamour went down when Northern Illinois was a candidate for the Big 12 last year. But, as you are saying, you do have corporate sponsors who donated money to non-P5 schools to G5, FCS and D2.
Boise State
Central Oklahoma
Dixie State
all are examples of schools that got corporate donations in recent years. Memphis is another one. The P5 better not ignore these guys too long either, or no gifts from those corporations.
07-10-2017 05:21 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
The Cutter of Bish Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,784
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation: 73
I Root For: the little guy
Location:
Post: #30
RE: What non-power schools...?
I believe the service academies are all upwardly mobile. Army chooses to sit out, and Navy thought it was joining a major when it finally came to terms with the Big East, only to see it bottom out (they committed to it regardless). And, I don't think one can come to conclusions over the Big XII and AFA from the last go-around. The conference is dying and expansion will come at the cost of prolonging some of the arrangements which is a total non-starter for them, while AFA may not have the best people on the tempo and styles needed to work with other conferences when pushed to it (ala the lacrosse thing and their AD saying nobody called them).

I'm of the belief that if the B12 implodes, there will still be a fifth major conference. There will still be enough power programs out there that can fetch respectable money and wouldn't dictate HUGE network revenue streams. Think Big East-lite. So, the Houston's, SMU's, UConn's, Cincy's...put BYU, the aforementioned AFA, and some of the remnants of the Big XII? Yeah, that could still pull money.

Schools that if they really could commit to athletics, and purposefully lobbied for it, would likely "get there:" the SA's, Rice, Tulane

Presently stuck and unknown but popular bets: UConn, Cincy, Houston, BYU, Colorado State

Who knows, more downside than upside: New Mexico, UNLV, SDSU, USF, UCF, Temple, SMU

In the realm of basketball? The upwardly mobile include: Gonzaga, Richmond, Davidson, SLU, and Dayton. I think Wichita State upgraded...they will have to demonstrate they can sustain success in a conference as thick as the AAC, and not resemble those like Temple and Memphis who we all know are good, but aren't currently consistent to the level of Cincy or SMU (presently). VCU is in Wichita State' boat...their ceiling, if the A10 were to ever dwindle, wouldn't be a Big East that seems to have no interest in public school members.
07-10-2017 08:45 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 2 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2017 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2017 MyBB Group.