(03-11-2019 04:32 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I keep meaning to comment of the Big West related conversation intermixed in this thread. I think if Long Beach St, Cal St Fullerton, and Pacific kept FBS football things would have transpired something like this:

1996: The WAC takes UNLV and San Jose St. The Big West adds UNT, Idaho, and Boise St
WAC FB membership sits at Cal St Fullerton, Long Beach St, Pacific, Nevada, Boise St, Idaho, Utah St, NMSU, and UNT--a very healthy 9 team conference

2001: Nevada and Boise St have left the Big West for the WAC. The Big West responds by adding ULL and Ark St for football only. The Subelt lacks the numbers to build it's own league and UNT and NMSU are unwilling to leave the stability of the Big West.

2005: Mass chaos ensues. The WAC is reduced to just 6 members: Hawaii, San Jose St, Fresno St, Nevada, Boise St and recent addition LA Tech. The Big West has just 7 full members who play football: Longbeach St, Cal St Fullerton, Pacific, Idaho, Utah St, NMSU, and UNT. In the Southeastern US thou have ULL, Ark St, and FIU in the Sunbelt with FBS teams along with FAU, MTSU, Troy, and ULM. No faction has enough schools to qualify for the 8 full member requirement. LA Tech, seeing a distant chasm between themselves and their conference mates who are eyeballing more western schools for replacements hatches a plan. They will go to SBC, along with the Big Sky's UNT if ULM is left out. The WAC then adds the other 6 Big West football schools:

SBC: UNT, LA Tech, Ark St, ULL, Troy, MTSU, FAU, FIU non FB: WKU, USA, UALR, UNO, Denver

WAC: Hawaii, San Jose St, Fresno St, Pacific, Cal St Fullerton, Longbeach St, Nevada, Boise St, Idaho, Utah St, NMSU

Indy: ULM

Big West: non football schools

Real screw to ULM, especially since La Tech had abandoned the Sun Belt just 4 years prior. Still, they'd probably take LT back over ULM, especially since ULM was only a FB affiliate at the time.

I wonder if in this scenario, the WAC would have been bold enough to extend ULM a FB affiliation to make 12 and have a CCG. I also wonder if CSU Fullerton, Long Beach State, and Pacific would have gone all-in with the WAC or just FB only. Even without them, the WAC has 8 full FB-playing members.

I had to come up with a way to get the SBC to 8 full members. They could go with ULM and UNT. LA Tech would be highly isolated in the reconstituted WAC.

As far as the WAC goes, they only need 8 full members but 9 makes for easier scheduling. If 2 or 3 were going to be left as affiliates I'm not sure who they'd be. Fresno St and San Jose St would probably feel compelled to to pull for their fellow Cal St schools to get full membership. If NMSU gets snubbed by the WAC they might be compelled to head to the Sunbelt.

With the Big West being the lowest prestige conference, despite having the most members, it might make sense that their membership would be pilfered by the other two camps.

(03-11-2019 09:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I had to come up with a way to get the SBC to 8 full members. They could go with ULM and UNT. LA Tech would be highly isolated in the reconstituted WAC.

As far as the WAC goes, they only need 8 full members but 9 makes for easier scheduling. If 2 or 3 were going to be left as affiliates I'm not sure who they'd be. Fresno St and San Jose St would probably feel compelled to to pull for their fellow Cal St schools to get full membership. If NMSU gets snubbed by the WAC they might be compelled to head to the Sunbelt.

With the Big West being the lowest prestige conference, despite having the most members, it might make sense that their membership would be pilfered by the other two camps.

Nine makes for easier scheduling than eight? No, no, no. Even numbers are always easier than odd ones.

(03-11-2019 09:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I had to come up with a way to get the SBC to 8 full members. They could go with ULM and UNT. LA Tech would be highly isolated in the reconstituted WAC.

As far as the WAC goes, they only need 8 full members but 9 makes for easier scheduling. If 2 or 3 were going to be left as affiliates I'm not sure who they'd be. Fresno St and San Jose St would probably feel compelled to to pull for their fellow Cal St schools to get full membership. If NMSU gets snubbed by the WAC they might be compelled to head to the Sunbelt.

With the Big West being the lowest prestige conference, despite having the most members, it might make sense that their membership would be pilfered by the other two camps.

If Lamar have not dropped football and stayed with SBC? They could have been number 8.

(03-11-2019 10:49 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-11-2019 09:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I had to come up with a way to get the SBC to 8 full members. They could go with ULM and UNT. LA Tech would be highly isolated in the reconstituted WAC.

As far as the WAC goes, they only need 8 full members but 9 makes for easier scheduling. If 2 or 3 were going to be left as affiliates I'm not sure who they'd be. Fresno St and San Jose St would probably feel compelled to to pull for their fellow Cal St schools to get full membership. If NMSU gets snubbed by the WAC they might be compelled to head to the Sunbelt.

With the Big West being the lowest prestige conference, despite having the most members, it might make sense that their membership would be pilfered by the other two camps.

Nine makes for easier scheduling than eight? No, no, no. Even numbers are always easier than odd ones.

I think the other poster meant was that there’d be an equal number of home and away conference games for each school. But, yes, an odd number leaves someone out weekly for their bye week or an OOC game.

(03-12-2019 12:10 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(03-11-2019 10:49 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(03-11-2019 09:18 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I had to come up with a way to get the SBC to 8 full members. They could go with ULM and UNT. LA Tech would be highly isolated in the reconstituted WAC.

As far as the WAC goes, they only need 8 full members but 9 makes for easier scheduling. If 2 or 3 were going to be left as affiliates I'm not sure who they'd be. Fresno St and San Jose St would probably feel compelled to to pull for their fellow Cal St schools to get full membership. If NMSU gets snubbed by the WAC they might be compelled to head to the Sunbelt.

With the Big West being the lowest prestige conference, despite having the most members, it might make sense that their membership would be pilfered by the other two camps.

Nine makes for easier scheduling than eight? No, no, no. Even numbers are always easier than odd ones.

I think the other poster meant was that there’d be an equal number of home and away conference games for each school. But, yes, an odd number leaves someone out weekly for their bye week or an OOC game.

I really don't buy the argument that an odd number of conference games is a bad thing. Yes, in any particular year, half the teams get 4 home games and 5 away while the other half get 5 home and 4 away. Guess what? The next year, the situation is reversed. So it balances out. The argument is either disingenuous or incredibly shortsighted.

Life is hard when you're a G5 with only 3 conference home games. that's why 9 members is better than 8.

Another way you could split up the Big West football schools in hypothetical 2005 is NMSU and UNT to the Sunbelt, along with ULM.

The WAC snags Utah St, Idaho, and the 3 CA schools for 12 members and LA Tech just sits there as an odd ball until things start moving again.

2010-2013 still results in the WAC losing Boise St, Frenso St, Nevada, Hawaii, LA Tech, Utah St, and San Jose St. The SBC gets hit too but both are able to rebuild.

(03-12-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Life is hard when you're a G5 with only 3 conference home games. that's why 9 members is better than 8.

Another way you could split up the Big West football schools in hypothetical 2005 is NMSU and UNT to the Sunbelt, along with ULM.

The WAC snags Utah St, Idaho, and the 3 CA schools for 12 members and LA Tech just sits there as an odd ball until things start moving again.

2010-2013 still results in the WAC losing Boise St, Frenso St, Nevada, Hawaii, LA Tech, Utah St, and San Jose St. The SBC gets hit too but both are able to rebuild.

OK, "easier" in that they get more guaranteed home games, but in that case, 10 is even better than 9.

(03-12-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Life is hard when you're a G5 with only 3 conference home games. that's why 9 members is better than 8.

Another way you could split up the Big West football schools in hypothetical 2005 is NMSU and UNT to the Sunbelt, along with ULM.

The WAC snags Utah St, Idaho, and the 3 CA schools for 12 members and LA Tech just sits there as an odd ball until things start moving again.

2010-2013 still results in the WAC losing Boise St, Frenso St, Nevada, Hawaii, LA Tech, Utah St, and San Jose St. The SBC gets hit too but both are able to rebuild.

Would the MWC get San Jose State or would they go after Fullerton State or Long Beach State? Fullerton State actually won the college world series.

(03-12-2019 11:21 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-12-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Life is hard when you're a G5 with only 3 conference home games. that's why 9 members is better than 8.

Another way you could split up the Big West football schools in hypothetical 2005 is NMSU and UNT to the Sunbelt, along with ULM.

The WAC snags Utah St, Idaho, and the 3 CA schools for 12 members and LA Tech just sits there as an odd ball until things start moving again.

2010-2013 still results in the WAC losing Boise St, Frenso St, Nevada, Hawaii, LA Tech, Utah St, and San Jose St. The SBC gets hit too but both are able to rebuild.

Would the MWC get San Jose State or would they go after Fullerton State or Long Beach State? Fullerton State actually won the college world series.

That would depend on the state of the athletic departments and schools at that time of realignment. Obviously this thread is speculatively-based, but I still think San Jose St gets the nod. Their current endowment is larger than both Long Beach St and Cal St Fullerton combined. I doubt football has a huge role in that. Both Long Beach St and Cal St Fullerton have a larger enrollment, though. If both schools plus Pacific and Idaho maintain their FBS programs, I think we do still have a three-tiered system out West today.

(03-12-2019 11:21 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(03-12-2019 07:36 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Life is hard when you're a G5 with only 3 conference home games. that's why 9 members is better than 8.

Another way you could split up the Big West football schools in hypothetical 2005 is NMSU and UNT to the Sunbelt, along with ULM.

The WAC snags Utah St, Idaho, and the 3 CA schools for 12 members and LA Tech just sits there as an odd ball until things start moving again.

2010-2013 still results in the WAC losing Boise St, Frenso St, Nevada, Hawaii, LA Tech, Utah St, and San Jose St. The SBC gets hit too but both are able to rebuild.

Would the MWC get San Jose State or would they go after Fullerton State or Long Beach State? Fullerton State actually won the college world series.

I recall that San Jose St got the call over UTEP due to their market. Perhaps the bigger question is would the stronger of the LA school get in over Utah St?

In 1981, Pitt left the Eastern 8 for a three year contract with the Big East (we know how that turned out). Interestingly, Temple, Holy Cross, and Penn State were the original schools set to join in 1982 to update the Eastern 8 to the Atlantic 10. Temple and Penn State were officially announced, but then a week later St. Joe’s was added. I couldn’t figure out what happened with Holy Cross, because at first they appeared like a lock.

When Pitt joined the Big East another article mentioned they left the seven school all-sports “Eastern League” in doubt.

Rotating pod schedules for the current 14-team P5 conferences. Conference schedule is 8 games. The pods alternate between divisions every 2 years. Each team in a pod of 3 plays its pod mates and a protected crossover in the other pod of 3 annually, and all other teams an average of once every 2 years. Each team in a pod of 4 plays its pod mates and a protected crossover in the other pod of 4 annually, the teams in pods of 3 an average of once every 2 years, and the non-protected teams in the other pod of 4 an average of once every 3 years.

School: Protected crossover

ACC

Pod 1
Boston College: Louisville
Miami-FL: Florida State
Syracuse: Pittsburgh

Pod 2
Clemson: Georgia Tech
NC State: Wake Forest
North Carolina: Duke
Virginia: Virginia Tech

Pod 3
Louisville: Boston College
Florida State: Miami-FL
Pittsburgh: Syracuse

Pod 4
Georgia Tech: Clemson
Wake Forest: NC State
Duke: North Carolina
Virginia Tech: Virginia


Big Ten

Pod 1
Illinois: Minnesota
Nebraska: Iowa
Northwestern: Wisconsin

Pod 2
Indiana: Rutgers
Michigan: Ohio State
Michigan State: Penn State
Purdue: Maryland

Pod 3
Minnesota: Illinois
Iowa: Nebraska
Wisconsin: Northwestern

Pod 4
Rutgers: Indiana
Ohio State: Michigan
Penn State: Michigan State
Maryland: Purdue


SEC

Pod 1
Arkansas: Ole Miss
Missouri: Mississippi State
Texas A&M: LSU

Pod 2
Alabama: Florida
Auburn: Georgia
Tennessee: Kentucky
Vanderbilt: South Carolina

Pod 3
Ole Miss: Arkansas
Mississippi State: Missouri
LSU: Texas A&M

Pod 4
Florida: Alabama
Georgia: Auburn
Kentucky: Tennessee
South Carolina: Vanderbilt

In this alternate history scenario, the NCAA is much stricter when it comes to the "Great Reclassification" of 1982. Not only are the Ivy League, SoCon, and Southland relegated to I-AA, but the MAC, MVC, and PCAA as well. Hybrid I-A/I-AA conferences are banned. The only school to successfully appeal its reclassification is Cincinnati (unlike Miami-OH, SW Louisiana, and WMU). Furthermore, no schools may join I-A without an invite from a I-A conference. As in our timeline, although Yale and McNeese State meet the standards for I-A, they opt to drop to I-AA to be with their conference mates. Survivors from the MAC, MVC, and PCAA band together in a football-only I-A league, the Trans-American Football Conference (TAFC).

I-A 1982

ACC
Full: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Non-FB: Georgia Tech

Big 8: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

I-A Ind: Army, Boston College, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Memphis, Miami-FL, Navy, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Syracuse, Temple, Tulane, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

SWC: Arkansas, Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

TAFC (FB only): Central Michigan, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Pacific, Toledo, Tulsa, UNLV, Utah State, Wichita State

WAC: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming

~~~~~~

CMU and Toledo are very quickly forced to bail after their attendance tanks in the TAFC, joining their MAC brethren in I-AA. Wichita State drops to I-AA a few years later. Arkansas State is the first demoted school to return to I-A, joining the TAFC in 1990. Boise State makes an earlier entrance into I-A in this timeline, replacing Fresno State in the TAFC upon their defection to the WAC in 1992. Big East football forms in a similar manner as our timeline, with two notable differences: the Big East proactively offers full membership to football heavyweights Florida State and Penn State, who accept. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is unable to score the TV deal with NBC it did in our timeline and decides to shack up with the Big Ten. Arkansas and South Carolina join the SEC as in reality, resulting in the first I-A conference with divisions.

I-A 1993 (* = FB-only member)

ACC: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 8: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big East
Full: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers*, Syracuse, Temple*, Virginia Tech*, West Virginia*
Non-FB: Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

I-A Ind: Army, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Louisville, Memphis, Navy, Southern Miss, Tulane

Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

SWC: Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

TAFC (FB only): Arkansas State, Boise State, New Mexico State, Pacific, Tulsa, UNLV, Utah State

WAC: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming

~~~~~~

Big changes follow! In 1996, the WAC scoops up Boise State and UNLV to go to 12. The Big 12 forms that year as in our timeline, with one exception: Nebraska defects to the Big Ten, and Houston is rescued from the SWC to replace them. The much diminished SWC, containing just Rice, SMU, and TCU, decides the show must go on and invites 5 TAFC schools as full members. The last remaining TAFC school, Pacific, drops to I-AA, leading to the demise of the FB-only conference.

Rutgers and WVU are granted full membership in the Big East in 1995. Temple (with PSU's support) and Virginia Tech join in full in 2000. The Metro Conference, never having fragmented in this timeline, begins sponsoring football in 1996. The Metro lineup that year consists of full members Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, and UAB; FB-only members UCF and ECU; and non-FB member USF. The Metro would quickly expand: Marshall joins in full in 1997; Army and Navy join as FB-onlies in 1998; and in 2001, UCF and ECU become full members and USF football joins up.

I-A 2001 (* = FB-only member)

ACC: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 12
North: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State
South: Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Big East
Full: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Non-FB: Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Metro
East: Army*, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Navy*, South Florida
West: Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB

Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

SWC: Arkansas State, New Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulsa, Utah State

WAC
Mountain: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Pacific: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, UNLV, UTEP

~~~~~~

Division I-A is remarkably stable for the next decade, making the moves that take place starting in 2011 all the more shocking. The Pac-10 expands first to the Pac-12 that year by recruiting Colorado State and Utah from the WAC. The next year, the conference changes its name again when Houston, Texas, A&M, and Tech become the eastern pod of the Pac-16. Like sharks circling a sinking ship, the Big Ten and SEC each take a bite of the flailing Big 12 as well. The SEC picks up OU and OSU, shifting the Alabama schools to the Eastern Division while moving Vandy to the Western. The Big Ten scores with Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri, at which point they reluctantly invite an overjoyed Iowa State to round out their numbers. Thus the Big 16 is born. With 10 schools in the Big 12 destined for new homes in power conferences, the conference is disbanded after the 2012-13 academic year. This is to the sorrow of Baylor and KSU, who bring the WAC back to 12.

One condition of Baylor and KSU's joining the WAC is to add more schools in the region. The SWC is finally put out of its misery, as Rice, SMU, TCU, and Tulsa are invited to the WAC in 2013, and Arkansas State and North Texas join the Metro (shifting Cincinnati to the East). NMSU and USU spend a brief spell as I-A independents before signing up as FB-only members of the Metro in 2014.

The SEC, despite having gorged on the Big 12, is not content to stand at 14. In 2013, they expand their footprint into the coveted states of Virginia and North Carolina by snagging VT from the Big East and NCSU from the ACC. This precipitates a relatively amiable split between the football and basketball schools of the Big East, which was a long time coming. The ACC, seeking to avoid irrelevance, extends an invite to the 9 remaining FB members of the Big East, who graciously accept. The 6 non-FB members retain the Big East name and restock with Butler, DePaul, Marquette, and Xavier.

I-A 2014 (* = FB-only member)

ACC
East: Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
North: Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL
West: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 16
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State
North: Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
West: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Metro
East: Army*, Central Florida, Navy*, South Florida
North: Cincinnati, East Carolina, Louisville, Marshall
South: Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: Arkansas State, New Mexico State*, North Texas, Utah State*

Pac-16
East: Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

WAC
East: Kansas State, New Mexico, Tulsa, UTEP
North: Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Wyoming
South: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU
West: Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, UNLV

~~~~~~

And so by the present day, we arrive at my favorite of alignments, with all conferences sporting 16 teams in 4 pods. The pods alternate between two 8-team divisions. Rather than the 130 FBS schools in 2019 of our timeline, there are only 96 schools in I-A by 2019 in this timeline, the legacy of the culling in 1982.

~~~~~~

Bonus material

Big East basketball protected opponents (2000-2012)

Conference schedule is 18 games, with 2 games vs. each of 3 protected opponents and 1 game vs. each of the remaining 12 opponents.


Annual interconference I-A matchups (as of 2019)
Air Force/Army
Air Force/Navy
BYU/Utah
Clemson/South Carolina
Colorado/Colorado State
Florida/Florida State
Georgia/Georgia Tech
Houston/Rice
Kansas/Kansas State
Kentucky/Louisville
Navy/Notre Dame
NC State/North Carolina
New Mexico/New Mexico State
New Mexico State/UTEP
Notre Dame/USC
Oklahoma/Texas
Virginia/Virginia Tech

~~~~~~

Questions, feedback, and constructive criticism are welcome and encouraged!

(03-22-2019 09:29 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  In this alternate history scenario, the NCAA is much stricter when it comes to the "Great Reclassification" of 1982. Not only are the Ivy League, SoCon, and Southland relegated to I-AA, but the MAC, MVC, and PCAA as well. Hybrid I-A/I-AA conferences are banned. The only school to successfully appeal its reclassification is Cincinnati. Furthermore, no schools may join I-A without an invite from a I-A conference. As in our timeline, although Yale and McNeese State meet the standards for I-A, they opt to drop to I-AA to be with their conference mates. Survivors from the MAC, MVC, and PCAA band together in a football-only I-A league, the Trans-American Football Conference (TAFC).

I-A 1982

ACC
Full: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Non-FB: Georgia Tech

Big 8: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

I-A Ind: Army, Boston College, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Memphis, Miami-FL, Navy, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, South Carolina, Southern Miss, Syracuse, Temple, Tulane, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

SWC: Arkansas, Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

TAFC (FB only): Central Michigan, Fresno State, New Mexico State, Pacific, Toledo, Tulsa, UNLV, Utah State, Wichita State

WAC: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming

~~~~~~

CMU and Toledo very quickly are forced to bail after their attendance tanks in the TAFC, joining their MAC brethren in I-AA. Wichita State drops to I-AA a few years later. Big East football forms in a similar manner as our timeline, with two notable differences: both Florida State and Penn State sign up, and the Big East wisely extends full membership to the football heavyweights. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is unable to score the TV deal with NBC it did in our timeline and decides to shack up with the Big Ten. Arkansas and South Carolina join the SEC as in reality, resulting in the first 2-division I-A conference.

I-A 1993 (* = FB-only member)

ACC: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 8: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big East
Full: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers*, Syracuse, Temple*, Virginia Tech*, West Virginia*
Non-FB: Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

Big Ten: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

I-A Ind: Army, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Louisville, Memphis, Navy, Southern Miss, Tulane

Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

SWC: Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

TAFC (FB only): Arkansas State, Boise State, New Mexico State, Pacific, Tulsa, UNLV, Utah State

WAC: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, Wyoming

~~~~~~

Big changes follow! In 1996, the WAC scoops up Boise State and UNLV to go to 12. The Big 12 forms that year as in our timeline, with one exception: Nebraska defects to the Big Ten, and Houston is rescued from the SWC to replace them. The much diminished SWC, containing just Rice, SMU, and TCU, decides the show must go on and invites 5 TAFC schools as full members. The last remaining TAFC school, Pacific, drops to I-AA, leading to the demise of the FB-only conference.

Rutgers and WVU are granted full membership in the Big East in 1995. Temple (with PSU's support) and Virginia Tech join in full in 2000. The Metro Conference, never having fragmented in this timeline, begins sponsoring football in 1996. The Metro lineup that year consists of full members Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, and UAB; FB-only members UCF and ECU; and non-FB member USF. The Metro would quickly expand: Marshall joins in full in 1997; Army and Navy join as FB-onlies in 1998; and in 2001, UCF and ECU become full members and USF football joins up.

I-A 2001 (* = FB-only member)

ACC: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 12
North: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma State
South: Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech

Big East
Full: Boston College, Florida State, Miami-FL, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Non-FB: Connecticut, Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova

Big Ten
East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Purdue
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Metro
East: Army*, Central Florida, East Carolina, Marshall, Navy*, South Florida
West: Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB

Pac-10: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss

SWC: Arkansas State, New Mexico State, North Texas, Rice, SMU, TCU, Tulsa, Utah State

WAC
Mountain: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming
Pacific: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, UNLV, UTEP

~~~~~~

Division I-A is remarkably stable for the next decade, making the moves that take place starting in 2011 all the more shocking. The Pac-10 expands first to the Pac-12 that year by recruiting Colorado State and Utah from the WAC. The next year, the conference changes its name again when Houston, Texas, A&M, and Tech become the eastern pod of the Pac-16. Like sharks circling a sinking ship, the Big Ten and SEC each take a bite of the flailing Big 12 as well. The SEC picks up OU and OSU, shifting the Alabama schools to the Eastern Division while moving Vandy to the Western. The Big Ten scores with Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri, at which point they reluctantly invite an overjoyed Iowa State to round out their numbers. Thus the Big 16 is born. With 10 schools in the Big 12 destined for new homes in power conferences, the conference is disbanded after the 2012-13 academic year, to the sorrow of Baylor and KSU, who bring the WAC back to 12.

One condition of Baylor and KSU's joining the WAC is to add more schools in the region. The SWC is finally put out of its misery, as Rice, SMU, TCU, and Tulsa are invited to the WAC in 2013, and Arkansas State and North Texas join the Metro (shifting Cincinnati to the East). NMSU and USU spend a brief spell as I-A independents before signing up as FB-only members of the Metro.

The SEC, despite having gorged on the Big 12, is not content to stand at 14. In 2013, they expand their footprint into the coveted states of Virginia and North Carolina by snagging VT from the Big East and NCSU from the ACC. This precipitates a relatively amiable split between the football and basketball schools of the Big East, which was a long time coming. The ACC, seeking to avoid irrelevance, extends an invite to the 9 remaining FB members of the Big East, who graciously accept. The 6 non-FB members retain the Big East name and restock with Butler, DePaul, Marquette, and Xavier.

I-A 2014 (* = FB-only member)

ACC
East: Boston College, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
North: Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL
West: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big 16
East: Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State
North: Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
West: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Metro
East: Army*, Central Florida, Navy*, South Florida
North: Cincinnati, East Carolina, Louisville, Marshall
South: Memphis, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: Arkansas State, New Mexico State*, North Texas, Utah State*

Pac-16
East: Houston, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado State, Utah
West: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West: Arkansas, LSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

WAC
East: Kansas State, New Mexico, Tulsa, UTEP
North: Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Wyoming
South: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU
West: Fresno State, Hawaii, San Diego State, UNLV

~~~~~~

And so by the present day, we arrive at my favorite of alignments, with all conferences sporting 16 teams in 4 pods. The pods alternate between two 8-team divisions. Rather than the 130 FBS schools in 2019 of our timeline, there are only 96 schools in I-A by 2019 in this timeline, the legacy of the culling in 1982.

Annual interconference I-A matchups
Air Force/Army
Air Force/Navy
BYU/Utah
Clemson/South Carolina
Colorado/Colorado State
Florida/Florida State
Georgia/Georgia Tech
Houston/Rice
Kansas/Kansas State
Kentucky/Louisville
Navy/Notre Dame
NC State/North Carolina
New Mexico State/UTEP
New Mexico/New Mexico State
Notre Dame/USC
Oklahoma/Texas
Virginia/Virginia Tech

~~~~~~

Questions, feedback, and constructive criticism are welcome and encouraged!

With you for the most part, but even in this scenario Louisiana Tech and Buffalo move into FBS in the mid 90's, leaving the other LA schools behind in a FCS Sun Belt. Also, Liberty still gets their waiver to move up, since they would have pushed for it around the same time frame as an institutional decision.

Lots of working pieces in the 1982 Nerdlinger plan. I'm not sure I see a fb only conference forming from the eligible Big West, MVC, and MAC schools. Also, what makes FSU and Penn St choose the Big East? Why would the absence of some of those lower level programs push them towards that conference?

I think the more interesting tweak to the 1982 relegation to look at is if the stipulation that was simply no new D1-A schools without conference invitations.

I think you might have seen a couple football only conferences spring up to accomodate some of the existing independents. The smaller leagues would then have a major impact on who moved up.

(03-23-2019 09:19 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Lots of working pieces in the 1982 Nerdlinger plan. I'm not sure I see a fb only conference forming from the eligible Big West, MVC, and MAC schools. Also, what makes FSU and Penn St choose the Big East? Why would the absence of some of those lower level programs push them towards that conference?

Why FSU and PSU to the Big East? Butterflies!

It's not implausible, if the Big East actually played its cards right and were proactive rather than reactive.

(03-23-2019 07:08 AM)whittx Wrote:  With you for the most part, but even in this scenario Louisiana Tech and Buffalo move into FBS in the mid 90's, leaving the other LA schools behind in a FCS Sun Belt. Also, Liberty still gets their waiver to move up, since they would have pushed for it around the same time frame as an institutional decision.

Not necessarily, especially since butterflies stemming from the point of divergence could have resulted in different administrations of those universities.

In 1977 to 78, there were still schools that fits the 1A up towards the late 1980s.

Many MAC schools do have the stadium sizes to stay D1. MAC could use Marshall and Cincinnati who are both have FBS stadiums.

Appalachian State stays FBS Independent instead of moving down to 1AA. Joins SBC early. SBC FBS football starts 1982.
Fullerton State future WAC member.
Chattanooga stays FBS and joined SBC 1982.
Colgate stays FBS and continues rival games with Army and Navy.
Holy Cross stays FBS like Colgate.
Idaho stays as WAC member.
Illinois State stays FBS and joins the MAC in 1982.
Indiana Statet stays FBS and joins the MAC in 1982.
Lamar stays FBS and be SBC without dropping football.
Long Beach State stays in as WAC member in the future.
Marquette keeps football and joins the Big East for all sports.
McNeese State becomes SBC member over La.-Monroe.
Richmond stays FBS and a possible Big East member.
Santa Clara kept football and a WAC football affiliate.
Southern Illinois joins the MAC
UTA joins SBC in 1982.
Tennessee State stays FBS and possible SBC member.
William & Mary could be C-USA member.
Villanova as Big East.
Western Carolina also stays FBS.
West Texas A&M stays and becomes SWC member in the 1990s.
Wichita State kept football and joins the SWC in 1990s.

WAC football 2019:
Idaho
Montana
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Long Beach State
UC-Davis
Santa Clara
Dixie State (future all sports member.) joins football in 2022.
Montana State joins 2019
Sacramento State
Portland State
Northern Arizona

Great West:
Seattle
UTRGV
Grand Canyon
Chicago State
Utah Valley
CSU-Bakersfield
California Baptist

Fullerton State becomes MWC number 12 team.

SWC:
Houston
Rice
TCU
SMU
West Texas A&M
UTA
UTSA
Tulsa
La. Tech
Tulane
Missouri State
Wichita State

SBC:
Arkansas State
North Texas
Lamar
La.-Lafayette
McNeese State
Chattanooga
Tennessee State
Troy
South Alabama
Georgia Southern
Coastal Carolina
Appalachian State

C-USA:
Middle Tennessee State
UAB
Charlotte
ODU
Richmond
Georgia State
Southern Mississippi
James Madison
William & Mary
FIU
FAU
Colgate
Holy Cross

MAC:
Northern Illinois
Illinois State
Western Michigan
Central Michigan
Indiana State
Ball State
Miami
Akron
Ohio
Toledo
Marshall
Buffalo
Milwaukee (if they kept football)

AAC:
Cincinnati
Rutgers
Louisville
UCF
USF
UConn.
ECU
Navy football only.
UMass.
Temple
Marquette
Colgate
Holy Cross
Villanova
Delaware

Western Carolina can't find a home for football drops down to SoCon. Same with Southern Illinois. 2 conferences would still be FBS. WAC and SWC and the Big East splits and the AAC became an FBS conference. Schools like Jacksonville, Charlotte and La.-Monroe dropped down, but only Charlotte rejoins when they added football. Rutgers and Louisville gets rescued to be in a P5 conference. Army joins as football only in AAC, and VCU and Dayton added for olympic sports to offset the 2 football only schools in AAC.

Gonzaga, St. Mary's Cal., Eastern Washington and Cal. Poly could be future WAC members. TCU leaves SWC to join the Big 12, North Texas from the SBC replaces them, and UTRGV would replace them in the SBC when they add football.

Marquette leaves the AAC joining the Big East and moves football to the Pioneer League.
AAC have 14 football members and 14 Olympic sports.