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Dodd on Baylor
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westwolf Offline
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Post: #1
Dodd on Baylor
Dennis Dodd opines that Baylor will be excluded from the P5 in the next realignment. Not that he thinks it will be only 64 in the new P4, but Baylor, Kansas, KSU, ISU will be possibly out while BYU and a few others will go up. Heard his interview on College Sports (XM).
07-04-2017 08:07 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Dodd on Baylor
Here's how I would look at it.

1) What's your support profile look like?
2) What's your institutional profile look like?
3) What's your history of success look like?
4) Are you a real threat to thrive as a top 20 program as an outsider?
5) Do you have any powerful allies pushing for you to be included?

Baylor has an issue with item 1, 2, 4, and 5. And 3 is iffy.

---

Also, remember that in a world without 'must take' cable contracts, Birmingham is more valuable than NYC. And Memphis is more important than DC. My question is this...how does this program being in this or that association help my team make money? If I leave that team out, will they create a CREDIBLE competitor to my conference? Can I actually add/retain this team without upsetting my stakeholders?

In a 'big bug out' scenario, Baylor is probably on the outside looking in. I don't see BYU making the cut either. They're on the outside now for a reason.

My guess is that the next realignment will take the form of a conference raid or a defection by certain teams. And that the Big XII will lose OU and UT and that the ACC's premier programs will be tempted to jump. If anything happens. OU and UT could actually even - gasp - just try to go indy.

Its kind of odd, but I think Oklahoma State has more to worry about than Vandy does at this point.
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2017 08:29 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
07-04-2017 08:29 AM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Dodd on Baylor
No - Birmingham is not more important than New York City

And no, Kansas will not be left out
07-04-2017 08:40 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 08:40 AM)dbackjon Wrote:  No - Birmingham is not more important than New York City

And no, Kansas will not be left out

How does Kansas make Auburn or Clemson or Arizona State money? That's the question you need to answer before arguing that.

The B1G is still making non-athletic based decisions, but I think they'll find religion when those new contracts come out.

Kansas has fans. Just not a lot of them. And their fan base and program concentrates on a sport that is less valuable than football.

Remember, the best basketball program over the last 30 years is sitting in the G5 (UConn). And they have a claim to 'marketz'. If basketball really was entering into the discussion, they'd be in the ACC or B1G.

If someone is looking at pure 'value', I don't see KU making the cut.

---

Guys I think the new P5 TV deals might be BRUTAL. Take 40 percent of the TV money away and almost every P5 program goes into the red, and some go into the red in a big way. Some CUSA teams experienced some significant pain when the new contract came out. That pain will pale in comparison to schools that get 8 figure budget holes in their athletic budgets appear overnight. KU doesn't really move the needle in football - for anyone. You can just schedule them in basketball, especially if they get left behind and probably double down further in basketball.

Back to the OT....Baylor probably can't make any P5 team any money and is probably just another mouth to feed. So they'll be left behind.
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2017 09:00 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
07-04-2017 08:49 AM
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megadrone Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 08:07 AM)westwolf Wrote:  Dennis Dodd opines that Baylor will be excluded from the P5 in the next realignment. Not that he thinks it will be only 64 in the new P4, but Baylor, Kansas, KSU, ISU will be possibly out while BYU and a few others will go up. Heard his interview on College Sports (XM).

could be anyone in the Big 12 not named Texas or Oklahoma is left out. Options for the rest of the schools would be band together in a better than AAC G conference or really be a tweener conference.

I don't think there's a way to align the leftovers of the Big 12 in any other way, with the possible exception of Kansas to the Big 10.

West Virginia, Iowa State and KState probably don't have other realistic options. WVU would want to look east, but the ACC and SEC have already passed on them, leaving the American (which isn't the same conference they left). These 3 with Ok. State are a good core, and better than the American, but may not be enough to land a contract bowl spot.
07-04-2017 09:24 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 09:24 AM)megadrone Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 08:07 AM)westwolf Wrote:  Dennis Dodd opines that Baylor will be excluded from the P5 in the next realignment. Not that he thinks it will be only 64 in the new P4, but Baylor, Kansas, KSU, ISU will be possibly out while BYU and a few others will go up. Heard his interview on College Sports (XM).

could be anyone in the Big 12 not named Texas or Oklahoma is left out. Options for the rest of the schools would be band together in a better than AAC G conference or really be a tweener conference.

I don't think there's a way to align the leftovers of the Big 12 in any other way, with the possible exception of Kansas to the Big 10.

West Virginia, Iowa State and KState probably don't have other realistic options. WVU would want to look east, but the ACC and SEC have already passed on them, leaving the American (which isn't the same conference they left). These 3 with Ok. State are a good core, and better than the American, but may not be enough to land a contract bowl spot.

Houston, Baylor, Tech, Okla State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, BYU, Boise, West Virginia, Cincy, UConn, Iowa State, and USF would probably be pretty strong in football. Strong enough to embarrass the CFP in some years.

Remember the CFP only has value because people see it as the 'real national championship'. You end up with a 2 loss team winning the CFP and an undefeated Oklahoma State team with good wins going undefeated...and the whole CFP product gets damaged.

The reason that the P5/G5 thing has held up is because no G5 team has upset the apple cart yet.
07-04-2017 09:35 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Dodd on Baylor
Boise State have been talked about. They are doing better than Washington State and Oregon State in football and basketball. I been hearing they would be one that they wuld include because you are leaving money on the table if you do not include them.
07-04-2017 09:46 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Dodd on Baylor
Baylor wouldn't get picked up by the PAC-12, ACC, SEC or B1G. There's too much radioactivity around not just their athletic program right now, but their institution as well. IMO, Houston has a very realistic shot at getting a call-up and taking their place.

I think Dodds is wrong about Kansas. Kansas will absolutely have interest from all four remaining power conferences. The SEC would be an intriguing option, for it would help them elevate basketball, and it would pair them again with Missouri. The B1G will always be there, because of their location and AAU. The PAC-12 would be interesting, as getting them into a basketball conference with UCLA and Arizona would get more eyeballs during the Winter. The ACC may be a long-shot, both because of geography, lack of big-time football, and less desire to improve basketball, but I still think there would be some interest there (especially if it gets a Texas or Oklahoma there too).

Kansas heavily investing in their football stadium is no mistake either. That is a calculated plan in order to prepare them for a move to another conference.
07-04-2017 09:52 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 09:46 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State have been talked about. They are doing better than Washington State and Oregon State in football and basketball. I been hearing they would be one that they wuld include because you are leaving money on the table if you do not include them.

Hit the brakes there. Boise State isn't as valuable as Kansas State, which would probably be left out of any P5 shuffle that reduced teams.

They have value, but I would be shocked if they got in the Pac 12, unless they started running off national championships (and I mean plural).

They have value to a remnants conference based upon their athletic success profile. The Pac 12 doesn't need them for that at this time, and their support level is small in comparison to potential other targets in the long-term view of that conference IMHO.
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2017 09:58 AM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
07-04-2017 09:52 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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RE: Dodd on Baylor
(07-04-2017 09:35 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 09:24 AM)megadrone Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 08:07 AM)westwolf Wrote:  Dennis Dodd opines that Baylor will be excluded from the P5 in the next realignment. Not that he thinks it will be only 64 in the new P4, but Baylor, Kansas, KSU, ISU will be possibly out while BYU and a few others will go up. Heard his interview on College Sports (XM).

could be anyone in the Big 12 not named Texas or Oklahoma is left out. Options for the rest of the schools would be band together in a better than AAC G conference or really be a tweener conference.

I don't think there's a way to align the leftovers of the Big 12 in any other way, with the possible exception of Kansas to the Big 10.

West Virginia, Iowa State and KState probably don't have other realistic options. WVU would want to look east, but the ACC and SEC have already passed on them, leaving the American (which isn't the same conference they left). These 3 with Ok. State are a good core, and better than the American, but may not be enough to land a contract bowl spot.

Houston, Baylor, Tech, Okla State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, BYU, Boise, West Virginia, Cincy, UConn, Iowa State, and USF would probably be pretty strong in football. Strong enough to embarrass the CFP in some years.

Remember the CFP only has value because people see it as the 'real national championship'. You end up with a 2 loss team winning the CFP and an undefeated Oklahoma State team with good wins going undefeated...and the whole CFP product gets damaged.

The reason that the P5/G5 thing has held up is because no G5 team has upset the apple cart yet.

And, barring an undefeated G5 in a given year - one where they can defeat a big-time P5 school or two - that cart doesn't appear to be at threat.

In the past 30 years, there are currently only three programs that have gone undefeated in FBS that are not currently within the P5 - Tulane, Marshall, and Boise State. Utah and TCU got call-ups and are set moving forward. The percentage is just overwhelmingly low to guarantee a non-P5 program a spot in the CFP. If a G5 runs the tables, depending on who they defeat in a given year, then they can get consideration.

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07-04-2017 10:00 AM
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