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Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
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THE NC Herd Fan Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-04-2017 10:40 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  For whatever it's worth, if you are a starter in high school, you can likely play D3. The costs of attending a D3 school are usually not worth extending the playing time but most can play. We had guys on my HS team who barely lettered that ended up playing D3 football.

Exactly, kids go to college to get an education. Kids are much better off going to a bigger school with more established and recognized programs of study. What good is a full ride to a college when the degree earned won't open a whole lot of doors.
(This post was last modified: 07-04-2017 06:35 PM by THE NC Herd Fan.)
07-04-2017 06:35 PM
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ODU_NYG Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-04-2017 06:29 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 10:40 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  For whatever it's worth, if you are a starter in high school, you can likely play D3. The costs of attending a D3 school are usually not worth extending the playing time but most can play. We had guys on my HS team who barely lettered that ended up playing D3 football.

The chart from the original link shows that only 8% of all high school football starters play any kind of college football though; that's D1, D2, D3, NAIA, and NJCAA combined. So I'm not following what you base your analysis on. If it really is based on just your one school, I think you need to look a little further.

I understand that some guys who play multiple sports in high school almost always end up choosing just one sport in college, so there may be some overlap with HS football players who might play baseball, basketball, or something else in college instead. But even if we work under the assumption that every HS football starter will actually choose football for college, rather than another sport, I can't see the number jumping from 8% to anything more than maybe 40-45%.

Maybe you graduated from a regional football powerhouse where a much higher percentage than normal go on to play college football at various levels, as we have a few of those in Texas to be sure (national powerhouses even). But nationally, I can't see it going above 45% given the low 8% figure provided on the link, and I think 45% is probably even a pretty liberal estimate.

He was saying that if you are a starter in HS you "can likely play" at the D3 level. Doesn't mean it turns out that way. One of my best friends from HS was a decent FB player on the OL (2 year starter; 2nd team all district). Not a D1 player by any means, but got offers from small schools to play, but he wasn't interested. Wanted to go to college and have fun instead.
07-05-2017 05:33 PM
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MUther Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-05-2017 05:33 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 06:29 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 10:40 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  For whatever it's worth, if you are a starter in high school, you can likely play D3. The costs of attending a D3 school are usually not worth extending the playing time but most can play. We had guys on my HS team who barely lettered that ended up playing D3 football.

The chart from the original link shows that only 8% of all high school football starters play any kind of college football though; that's D1, D2, D3, NAIA, and NJCAA combined. So I'm not following what you base your analysis on. If it really is based on just your one school, I think you need to look a little further.

I understand that some guys who play multiple sports in high school almost always end up choosing just one sport in college, so there may be some overlap with HS football players who might play baseball, basketball, or something else in college instead. But even if we work under the assumption that every HS football starter will actually choose football for college, rather than another sport, I can't see the number jumping from 8% to anything more than maybe 40-45%.

Maybe you graduated from a regional football powerhouse where a much higher percentage than normal go on to play college football at various levels, as we have a few of those in Texas to be sure (national powerhouses even). But nationally, I can't see it going above 45% given the low 8% figure provided on the link, and I think 45% is probably even a pretty liberal estimate.

He was saying that if you are a starter in HS you "can likely play" at the D3 level. Doesn't mean it turns out that way. One of my best friends from HS was a decent FB player on the OL (2 year starter; 2nd team all district). Not a D1 player by any means, but got offers from small schools to play, but he wasn't interested. Wanted to go to college and have fun instead.

Exactly. The statistics show only those who chose to go play at the lower levels. It doesn't take into account those that were good enough or recruited that simply chose to go to their favorite college, instead, and not play after high school. I would consider that the largest overall percentage of post-high school athletes. Those that just chose to give up sports after high school for whatever reason.
07-05-2017 05:45 PM
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Volkmar Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-05-2017 05:45 PM)MUther Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 05:33 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 06:29 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 10:40 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  For whatever it's worth, if you are a starter in high school, you can likely play D3. The costs of attending a D3 school are usually not worth extending the playing time but most can play. We had guys on my HS team who barely lettered that ended up playing D3 football.

The chart from the original link shows that only 8% of all high school football starters play any kind of college football though; that's D1, D2, D3, NAIA, and NJCAA combined. So I'm not following what you base your analysis on. If it really is based on just your one school, I think you need to look a little further.

I understand that some guys who play multiple sports in high school almost always end up choosing just one sport in college, so there may be some overlap with HS football players who might play baseball, basketball, or something else in college instead. But even if we work under the assumption that every HS football starter will actually choose football for college, rather than another sport, I can't see the number jumping from 8% to anything more than maybe 40-45%.

Maybe you graduated from a regional football powerhouse where a much higher percentage than normal go on to play college football at various levels, as we have a few of those in Texas to be sure (national powerhouses even). But nationally, I can't see it going above 45% given the low 8% figure provided on the link, and I think 45% is probably even a pretty liberal estimate.

He was saying that if you are a starter in HS you "can likely play" at the D3 level. Doesn't mean it turns out that way. One of my best friends from HS was a decent FB player on the OL (2 year starter; 2nd team all district). Not a D1 player by any means, but got offers from small schools to play, but he wasn't interested. Wanted to go to college and have fun instead.

Exactly. The statistics show only those who chose to go play at the lower levels. It doesn't take into account those that were good enough or recruited that simply chose to go to their favorite college, instead, and not play after high school. I would consider that the largest overall percentage of post-high school athletes. Those that just chose to give up sports after high school for whatever reason.

In my defense, though I didn't state it in my comment, I actually took that into account also, which is why I used what I felt was the fairly liberal estimate of 40-45% from the stated 8% number. It's a pretty big jump from 8% to 40-45% after all. And we also have to remember that the 8% number also includes NAIA and NJCAA football, as well as "Other". If those are removed, the starting point we're dealing with for D3 or above falls from 8% of HS football players to only 6.2%. At any rate, it's pretty much just conjecture on anyone's part as to what percent actually could play D3, and so there's bound to be disagreement.

It also changes greatly depending on what state you're talking about, and especially what size school you're talking about. You'll certainly have a much higher percentage of football players at a large high school (e.g. 2,400+ enrollment) who would be good enough to play D3 than you would from a smaller school (600 enrollment or less) where many of the players probably wouldn't even make it onto a varsity squad if they attended a school much larger.
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2017 12:23 PM by Volkmar.)
07-07-2017 12:18 PM
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ODUDrunkard13 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-07-2017 12:18 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 05:45 PM)MUther Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 05:33 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 06:29 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 10:40 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  For whatever it's worth, if you are a starter in high school, you can likely play D3. The costs of attending a D3 school are usually not worth extending the playing time but most can play. We had guys on my HS team who barely lettered that ended up playing D3 football.

The chart from the original link shows that only 8% of all high school football starters play any kind of college football though; that's D1, D2, D3, NAIA, and NJCAA combined. So I'm not following what you base your analysis on. If it really is based on just your one school, I think you need to look a little further.

I understand that some guys who play multiple sports in high school almost always end up choosing just one sport in college, so there may be some overlap with HS football players who might play baseball, basketball, or something else in college instead. But even if we work under the assumption that every HS football starter will actually choose football for college, rather than another sport, I can't see the number jumping from 8% to anything more than maybe 40-45%.

Maybe you graduated from a regional football powerhouse where a much higher percentage than normal go on to play college football at various levels, as we have a few of those in Texas to be sure (national powerhouses even). But nationally, I can't see it going above 45% given the low 8% figure provided on the link, and I think 45% is probably even a pretty liberal estimate.

He was saying that if you are a starter in HS you "can likely play" at the D3 level. Doesn't mean it turns out that way. One of my best friends from HS was a decent FB player on the OL (2 year starter; 2nd team all district). Not a D1 player by any means, but got offers from small schools to play, but he wasn't interested. Wanted to go to college and have fun instead.

Exactly. The statistics show only those who chose to go play at the lower levels. It doesn't take into account those that were good enough or recruited that simply chose to go to their favorite college, instead, and not play after high school. I would consider that the largest overall percentage of post-high school athletes. Those that just chose to give up sports after high school for whatever reason.

In my defense, though I didn't state it in my comment, I actually took that into account also, which is why I used what I felt was the fairly liberal estimate of 40-45% from the stated 8% number. It's a pretty big jump from 8% to 40-45% after all. And we also have to remember that the 8% number also includes NAIA and NJCAA football, as well as "Other". If those are removed, the starting point we're dealing with for D3 or above falls from 8% of HS football players to only 6.2%. At any rate, it's pretty much just conjecture on anyone's part as to what percent actually could play D3, and so there's bound to be disagreement.

It also changes greatly depending on what state you're talking about, and especially what size school you're talking about. You'll certainly have a much higher percentage of football players at a large high school (e.g. 2,400+ enrollment) who would be good enough to play D3 than you would from a smaller school (600 enrollment or less) where many of the players probably wouldn't even make it onto a varsity squad if they attended a school much larger.

I think the biggest point you're missing is many D3 schools use football as a way to recruit more students. They use the chance to play NCAA football to get students who would normally never give the school a second look, let alone attend. At the prices they're charging at most of these schools, they have to offer an incentive like that.

My senior year, our team lost a multi-OT game in the state regional final for AA (highest in Virginia at the time was AAA). It sucked. Within a week, we had coaches from schools like Shenandoah and Bridgewater schedule meetings with the team to offer campus visits to every single senior on our team.

Some of these guys invited didnt play outside of practice.

If you showed interest in even visiting, they would start "recruiting" you. Why? Because they need bodies for practice. Bodies willing to practice a game, while paying $10k+ per semester. They already recruited the actual athletes that would play. They needed guys to get hit by those athletes. Some of the kids from my school that played D3 were good. But others, they just got an overpriced degree with the chance to say they played in college.
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2017 01:51 PM by ODUDrunkard13.)
07-07-2017 01:36 PM
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Volkmar Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-07-2017 01:36 PM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 12:18 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 05:45 PM)MUther Wrote:  
(07-05-2017 05:33 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  
(07-04-2017 06:29 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  The chart from the original link shows that only 8% of all high school football starters play any kind of college football though; that's D1, D2, D3, NAIA, and NJCAA combined. So I'm not following what you base your analysis on. If it really is based on just your one school, I think you need to look a little further.

I understand that some guys who play multiple sports in high school almost always end up choosing just one sport in college, so there may be some overlap with HS football players who might play baseball, basketball, or something else in college instead. But even if we work under the assumption that every HS football starter will actually choose football for college, rather than another sport, I can't see the number jumping from 8% to anything more than maybe 40-45%.

Maybe you graduated from a regional football powerhouse where a much higher percentage than normal go on to play college football at various levels, as we have a few of those in Texas to be sure (national powerhouses even). But nationally, I can't see it going above 45% given the low 8% figure provided on the link, and I think 45% is probably even a pretty liberal estimate.

He was saying that if you are a starter in HS you "can likely play" at the D3 level. Doesn't mean it turns out that way. One of my best friends from HS was a decent FB player on the OL (2 year starter; 2nd team all district). Not a D1 player by any means, but got offers from small schools to play, but he wasn't interested. Wanted to go to college and have fun instead.

Exactly. The statistics show only those who chose to go play at the lower levels. It doesn't take into account those that were good enough or recruited that simply chose to go to their favorite college, instead, and not play after high school. I would consider that the largest overall percentage of post-high school athletes. Those that just chose to give up sports after high school for whatever reason.

In my defense, though I didn't state it in my comment, I actually took that into account also, which is why I used what I felt was the fairly liberal estimate of 40-45% from the stated 8% number. It's a pretty big jump from 8% to 40-45% after all. And we also have to remember that the 8% number also includes NAIA and NJCAA football, as well as "Other". If those are removed, the starting point we're dealing with for D3 or above falls from 8% of HS football players to only 6.2%. At any rate, it's pretty much just conjecture on anyone's part as to what percent actually could play D3, and so there's bound to be disagreement.

It also changes greatly depending on what state you're talking about, and especially what size school you're talking about. You'll certainly have a much higher percentage of football players at a large high school (e.g. 2,400+ enrollment) who would be good enough to play D3 than you would from a smaller school (600 enrollment or less) where many of the players probably wouldn't even make it onto a varsity squad if they attended a school much larger.

I think the biggest point you're missing is many D3 schools use football as a way to recruit more students. They use the chance to play NCAA football to get students who would normally never give the school a second look, let alone attend. At the prices they're charging at most of these schools, they have to offer an incentive like that.

My senior year, our team lost a multi-OT game in the state regional final for AA (highest in Virginia at the time was AAA). It sucked. Within a week, we had coaches from schools like Shenandoah and Bridgewater schedule meetings with the team to offer campus visits to every single senior on our team.

Some of these guys invited didnt play outside of practice.

If you showed interest in even visiting, they would start "recruiting" you. Why? Because they need bodies for practice. Bodies willing to practice a game, while paying $10k+ per semester. They already recruited the actual athletes that would play. They needed guys to get hit by those athletes.
Some of the kids from my school that played D3 were good. But others, they just got an overpriced degree with the chance to say they played in college.

I must be missing another point then because how exactly does being nothing but a glorified D3 practice squad player qualify a kid as actually being able to play D3? And let's not turn this into a Rudy thing either (lol). Seems to me that if they were really good enough to play D3, they would actually be on the team, either as a starter or reserve, and not just as an extra body for practice. Maybe we're talking about two different things here because I'm talking about guys who actually suit up for games, because in my mind, those are the guys for whom it can be said can actually play D3.
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2017 02:39 PM by Volkmar.)
07-07-2017 02:34 PM
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ODUDrunkard13 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-07-2017 02:34 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  I must be missing another point then because how exactly does being nothing but a glorified D3 practice squad player qualify a kid as actually being able to play D3? And let's not turn this into a Rudy thing either (lol). Seems to me that if they were really good enough to play D3, they would actually be on the team, either as a starter or reserve, and not just as an extra body for practice. Maybe we're talking about two different things here because I'm talking about guys who actually suit up for games.

A lot of players suit up for games. Not all play. When I say they play at the D3 level, I meant they're on the team. I thought that would be clear, since that it what this study is tracking. They arent tracking only those that start in college.
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2017 02:39 PM by ODUDrunkard13.)
07-07-2017 02:38 PM
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Volkmar Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-07-2017 02:38 PM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 02:34 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  I must be missing another point then because how exactly does being nothing but a glorified D3 practice squad player qualify a kid as actually being able to play D3? And let's not turn this into a Rudy thing either (lol). Seems to me that if they were really good enough to play D3, they would actually be on the team, either as a starter or reserve, and not just as an extra body for practice. Maybe we're talking about two different things here because I'm talking about guys who actually suit up for games.

A lot of players suit up for games. Not all play. When I say they play at the D3 level, I meant they're on the team. I thought that would be clear, since that it what this study is tracking. They arent tracking only those that start in college.

Again, as I explained in the paragraph above, I'm not just talking about players who start either. I'm talking about players who actually suit up for games and play. You're the one who said in your comment that some of those guys never set foot on the field aside and are nothing more than bodies in practice for others to hit. If you were just recruited as a way to get more students (also your words), and never get any PT, whether as a starter or reserve (doesn't matter), you're not good enough.
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2017 02:46 PM by Volkmar.)
07-07-2017 02:46 PM
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Volkmar Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
As a final retort, I invite you to look at the numbers in black & white, offered by the link. There are 1,122,024 kids who play HS football, and there are 90,136 who play college football (which again represents D1, D2, D3, NAIA, NJCAA, and "Other" combined). In other words, there are about 12.4 high school football players for every college football player, meaning there's NO WAY nearly any HS football player can play D3. At a 12:1 ratio, only the best of the HS players could make the cut.
07-07-2017 03:03 PM
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ODUDrunkard13 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Odds of playing college sports out of highschool
(07-07-2017 03:03 PM)Volkmar Wrote:  As a final retort, I invite you to look at the numbers in black & white, offered by the link. There are 1,122,024 kids who play HS football, and there are 90,136 who play college football (which again represents D1, D2, D3, NAIA, NJCAA, and "Other" combined). In other words, there are about 12.4 high school football players for every college football player, meaning there's NO WAY nearly any HS football player can play D3. At a 12:1 ratio, only the best of the HS players could make the cut.

There's a clear distinction between scholarship athletics and non-scholarship athletics. While the former is an easy to sell commodity, the latter requires folks to buy in to paying to play (very hard sell). If you want to discuss the low ratio of athletes who get their college paid for through athletics, you won't get any argument from me.

But the D3 numbers only tell you how many accepted the opportunity to play in college. It doesnt calculate at all how many declined that opportunity. I, like many others, decided attending a bigger state college (at the fraction of the cost) was much better fit than extending an average athletic career at a small private school like Randolph Macon or Shenandoah.
07-07-2017 08:57 PM
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