(07-11-2017 08:53 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  For Virginia Tech, I'd say it's
1. ACC
. . .
2. B1G or SEC
. . .
3. Big XII or Independent

Really though, the ACC has more of VT's natural rivals than any other conference. After that, I wouldn't care between Big Ten or SEC - either way it would be about half as many games I really care about.

The Big Ten won't want VT because they're not AAU (or Notre Dame or Oklahoma). The SEC might be interested, as of course would the Big 12.

JMU realignment options:

1. CAA

2. Rockingham County Recreational League for the Criminally Insane

3. Anywhere Eastern Mennonite University is willing to take us

4. President Alger's New England Liberal Arts Fantasy Football League

(07-11-2017 11:34 AM)2Buck Wrote:  JMU realignment options:

1. CAA

2. Rockingham County Recreational League for the Criminally Insane

3. Anywhere Eastern Mennonite University is willing to take us

4. President Alger's New England Liberal Arts Fantasy Football League

I think the ODAC would take you. Joint move with U of R.

Marshall. CUSA for the long haul, unless the SBC and CUSA realign into an East/West thing. (PS, I'm one of those guys who thinks we are well placed. I know I'll get blasted for that.)

(07-11-2017 11:45 AM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  Marshall. CUSA for the long haul, unless the SBC and CUSA realign into an East/West thing. (PS, I'm one of those guys who thinks we are well placed. I know I'll get blasted for that.)

The American might give them a chance if they lose a few schools to the power conferences.

For ODU:

The AAC (Probably only if they lose members for the foreseeable future)
Some sort of CUSA/Sun Belt Reshuffle
The A10 and FB independence. (There are plenty of ODU fans that would prefer this to staying in CUSA. Or even taking FB back to FCS and oly to A10)

Unless the AAC calls, AState is in the Sun Belt unless there is some geographic shake-up of CUSA and Sun Belt.

(07-11-2017 12:47 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unless the AAC calls, AState is in the Sun Belt unless there is some geographic shake-up of CUSA and Sun Belt.

There doesn't have to be a geographic shakeup. If the American raids C-USA again, C-USA may in turn raid the Sun Belt again.

(07-11-2017 12:50 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-11-2017 12:47 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unless the AAC calls, AState is in the Sun Belt unless there is some geographic shake-up of CUSA and Sun Belt.

There doesn't have to be a geographic shakeup. If the American raids C-USA again, C-USA may in turn raid the Sun Belt again.

If CUSA gets raided and loses USM, there won't be a lot of interest in CUSA in Jonesboro.

(07-11-2017 01:27 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  If CUSA gets raided and loses USM, there won't be a lot of interest in CUSA in Jonesboro.

Forgive my lack of knowledge on the topic, but why would the loss of Southern Miss affect how interested C-USA would be in Arkansas State?

(07-11-2017 01:30 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-11-2017 01:27 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  If CUSA gets raided and loses USM, there won't be a lot of interest in CUSA in Jonesboro.

Forgive my lack of knowledge on the topic, but why would the loss of Southern Miss affect how interested C-USA would be in Arkansas State?

Because there isn't much of anyone else interesting to our fan base. It's a money loser move. $2 million to leave Sun Belt plus whatever CUSA charges to enter and the move is revenue neutral.

Been there, done that playing MTSU, WKU, UNT, La.Tech. No one ever got much fired up about the first three and anyone who remembers La.Tech as rivalry is 50 or older just as anyone who really remembers Rice being part of the SWC when Arkansans followed the SEC are people 50 and up.

But Southern Miss sits at the south end of US49 which passes each of our stadiums. USM for a long time was the model for what we wanted AState to be, our fans drive by USM on the way to the beach in the summer or four times driving to the Dollar General Bowl. We are much more intune with the idea of USM than anyone else in CUSA.

(07-11-2017 01:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Because there isn't much of anyone else interesting to our fan base. It's a money loser move. $2 million to leave Sun Belt plus whatever CUSA charges to enter and the move is revenue neutral.

Been there, done that playing MTSU, WKU, UNT, La.Tech. No one ever got much fired up about the first three and anyone who remembers La.Tech as rivalry is 50 or older just as anyone who really remembers Rice being part of the SWC when Arkansans followed the SEC are people 50 and up.

But Southern Miss sits at the south end of US49 which passes each of our stadiums. USM for a long time was the model for what we wanted AState to be, our fans drive by USM on the way to the beach in the summer or four times driving to the Dollar General Bowl. We are much more intune with the idea of USM than anyone else in CUSA.

Ah, I see. C-USA would at least (potentially) offer more revenue in terms of media rights, as well as increased national exposure. Consider it an investment? But I do understand why they would opt to stay put.

Does Arkansas State offer anything in terms of proximity to Memphis?

(07-11-2017 01:45 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-11-2017 01:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Because there isn't much of anyone else interesting to our fan base. It's a money loser move. $2 million to leave Sun Belt plus whatever CUSA charges to enter and the move is revenue neutral.

Been there, done that playing MTSU, WKU, UNT, La.Tech. No one ever got much fired up about the first three and anyone who remembers La.Tech as rivalry is 50 or older just as anyone who really remembers Rice being part of the SWC when Arkansans followed the SEC are people 50 and up.

But Southern Miss sits at the south end of US49 which passes each of our stadiums. USM for a long time was the model for what we wanted AState to be, our fans drive by USM on the way to the beach in the summer or four times driving to the Dollar General Bowl. We are much more intune with the idea of USM than anyone else in CUSA.

Ah, I see. C-USA would at least (potentially) offer more revenue in terms of media rights, as well as increased national exposure. Consider it an investment? But I do understand why they would opt to stay put.

Does Arkansas State offer anything in terms of proximity to Memphis?

Right now the difference in media rights for CUSA and Sun Belt is $91,000 per year per team. But CUSA splits the $10 million from CFP 14 ways instead of ten, so Sun Belt is $286,000 per team ahead there.

Hard to monetize a $2 million exit fee when you are making the same or less.

As to Memphis. Weird thing about the Nielsen markets is they don't often reflect reality. Drive 15 minutes out of Jonesboro and you are in the Memphis TV market though you need satellite, cable or a really good rooftop antenna to actually see most Memphis stations. When I drive to games from Little Rock I can see the transmitter tower for Jonesboro's ABC, NBC, and PBS affiliates from the highway but the spot where I see the tower is in the Little Rock market and even an antenna won't pull in LR stations unless you get a serious amplified system higher than the normal 20-30 feet tall.

But there's not a lot of population in those Memphis and LR fringes.

(07-11-2017 03:14 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(07-11-2017 01:45 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-11-2017 01:40 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Because there isn't much of anyone else interesting to our fan base. It's a money loser move. $2 million to leave Sun Belt plus whatever CUSA charges to enter and the move is revenue neutral.

Been there, done that playing MTSU, WKU, UNT, La.Tech. No one ever got much fired up about the first three and anyone who remembers La.Tech as rivalry is 50 or older just as anyone who really remembers Rice being part of the SWC when Arkansans followed the SEC are people 50 and up.

But Southern Miss sits at the south end of US49 which passes each of our stadiums. USM for a long time was the model for what we wanted AState to be, our fans drive by USM on the way to the beach in the summer or four times driving to the Dollar General Bowl. We are much more intune with the idea of USM than anyone else in CUSA.

Ah, I see. C-USA would at least (potentially) offer more revenue in terms of media rights, as well as increased national exposure. Consider it an investment? But I do understand why they would opt to stay put.

Does Arkansas State offer anything in terms of proximity to Memphis?

Right now the difference in media rights for CUSA and Sun Belt is $91,000 per year per team. But CUSA splits the $10 million from CFP 14 ways instead of ten, so Sun Belt is $286,000 per team ahead there.

Hard to monetize a $2 million exit fee when you are making the same or less.

As to Memphis. Weird thing about the Nielsen markets is they don't often reflect reality. Drive 15 minutes out of Jonesboro and you are in the Memphis TV market though you need satellite, cable or a really good rooftop antenna to actually see most Memphis stations. When I drive to games from Little Rock I can see the transmitter tower for Jonesboro's ABC, NBC, and PBS affiliates from the highway but the spot where I see the tower is in the Little Rock market and even an antenna won't pull in LR stations unless you get a serious amplified system higher than the normal 20-30 feet tall.

But there's not a lot of population in those Memphis and LR fringes.

Fair points. It seems C-USA may have already bitten off more than it can chew in its attempt to grab big markets.

(07-11-2017 01:27 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(07-11-2017 12:50 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-11-2017 12:47 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Unless the AAC calls, AState is in the Sun Belt unless there is some geographic shake-up of CUSA and Sun Belt.

There doesn't have to be a geographic shakeup. If the American raids C-USA again, C-USA may in turn raid the Sun Belt again.

If CUSA gets raided and loses USM, there won't be a lot of interest in CUSA in Jonesboro.

Nor anywhere else in the Sunbelt. That ship sailed with the schools that bolted for rhe AAC.

Sent from my XT1254 using CSNbbs mobile app

Depending on who the American loses, it's possible C-USA might not even be touched. The only way I see C-USA being hit for sure is if the American loses Houston, who will most certainly be replaced by Rice. North Texas replacing SMU may be less palatable, but may be necessary to keep Navy, as the Midshipmen want a football game in the state of Texas every year. Of course if SMU and Houston are in the Big 12, Navy may very well be coming with them.

I would think Cincinnati almost certainly would be replaced by a MAC school. Connecticut could be an interesting case, as the American might exit New England entirely and add Northern Illinois or Western Michigan. Even Buffalo could pass as a travel partner for Temple.

(07-05-2017 11:53 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  It's possible someday the B1G grabs Duke/UNC w/ NC Sate going to the SEC. That would open up ACC slots in North Carolina for someone.

Won't happen before 2036.

Florida State

ACC
That's where we are. We're happy, settled, and eager to keep playing ball.

The next opening for a move by any ACC school will be 2036 when the ACC grant of media rights expires. By then we will have played in the ACC for something like 45 years. Few will remember any other arrangement and we will have a lot of history with our current conference partners.

We wouldn't want to move. The only way it would happen is if we felt we had to--say, if for whatever reason the ACC revenues fell too far behind neighouring conferences. When things like that happen leagues experience defections. If that happened to the ACC by the 2030s, the Seminoles would have a couple of options.

---

SEC
By 2036 cable will be gone and fans will likely be streaming. Conferences will be less interested in adding new states as they did before, but in adding schools that help provide appealing match-ups. Florida State has much to offer the SEC here. Fans will tune in to watch the Seminoles play Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, UF, Tennessee, LSU, Texas A&M. SEC officials know this.

B1G
If the ACC really became subject to raiding, a B1G ambition might involve blowing down the Atlantic coast from Maryland. Florida State could then serve as the southernmost anchor of a stretch that included Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia schools. I'm not sure how anyone makes a conference that big work, though. The only way it can is if it really becomes something other than a conference. A media consortium or something.

_____

The Seminoles will likely remain in the ACC for many decades to come. The league is stable and lucrative. We like our conference partners. Accumulate years of storied history to add to everything we have now and I don't foresee any ACC schools wanting to move.