(06-30-2017 09:05 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(06-30-2017 09:01 AM)HartfordHusky Wrote:  Does the Big East TV deal with Fox include all media rights, including tier 3, or is it basically just a deal for men's hoops? If UConn could get Fox Big East money for men's hoops alone, and sell the rest on its own, that could be an attractive proposition. UConn WBB is valuable, Football could also get a new deal with SNY, I'm sure. I think UConn baseball is also getting more popular, so the school would have plenty of tier 3 content available if it's not part of the conference media rights deal.

as far as I know, it includes everything.

If that the case, the main question is what sort of media deal UConn could get for football as an independent.

(06-30-2017 08:11 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-29-2017 11:48 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-29-2017 11:20 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The Tier 3 rights are huge for UConn. I wasn't aware they reacquired them (specifically SNY). It would make sense too, since there were rumblings about UConn potentially having talks with the Big East in the past couple of months. My bet is that the AAC gave those back out of fear that UConn was serious about leaving. It also wouldn't shock me that UConn made a power play for another non-football member in order to improve the perception and strength of basketball (Wichita State).

The next AAC TV deal is crucial. The gap is already there. If the AAC TV deal isn't what many expect it to be, it not only furthers the gap, but it might as well be nails to the coffin.

That's my belief. That's why I find it extremely unlikely that the AAC would accept an early relatively low ball offer in the 2-4 million range. It's going take more than that to keep the ex-Big East teams from wanting the AAC to explore the open market where the maximum value would theoretically be obtained. The AAC would probably need an 8+ Million dollar deal for UConn to break even with its current 10 million dollar payout. That said---with just a 3-4 million deal, the AAC would probably make the Big East option financially irrelevant. The difference would be too small to be worth a 10 million dollar exit fee.

I would love to have UConn back in the Big East, in a normative sense, surely that is "where they belong". But it has to make sense financially, and the reality is, at least for the next 15 years or so, the Big East has little if any financial growth potential. If you join the Big East, you will get that FOX money. If that's enough for you, fine, but if you are looking for bigger things, they aren't happening. Nobody realistically expects the Big East to get much of a boost when its next deal is signed in the mid-2020s.

What that adds up to is that I think that if financially, all things are even, there's a good chance UConn leaves the AAC for the Big East, in which case their football would remain FBS but go independent. Where we disagree is that I think that if the annual dollars are even, if the AAC only gets the $3m - $4m deal you mention above, it might even be worth it to UConn to pay the $10m exit fee, because the normative pull of the Big East is strong.

But if the AAC can get the kind of contract boost that you and others think it will, up into the $5m - $8m per school range, then the AAC dollars will clearly be better than what the Big East can offer, and no way UConn leaves.

That's just it---the money is already about equal. The payout for the Big East apparently is only about 3 million a team per the article. That's about what the lowest earning teams in the AAC get (these would be schools seeing little boost from the realignment fund). A 1-2 million a year boost in media income would move the AAC payout a couple of million past the Big East payout. Also, don't forget---being Indy in football is a pretty miserable existence. That would be close to throwing football under a bus. As long as UConn is seeking a P5 promotion---I don't think that move is likely.

I find the football contract numbers shocking.

$1.2 million for a game at Clemson in 2021????
AState is getting $1.7 million from Bama in 2018 and $1.8 million from Georgia in 2019.

Getting $1.125 million to move a home game with BC to Fenway?
St. Louis offered $1.8 million to get AState to move a game with Mizzou to the new Busch Stadium and $1.5 million from Kansas City to move it to Arrowhead.

Sure looks like UConn is leaving money on the table.

Any talk about UConn dropping to FCS is ludicrous and quite frankly dumb. Anyone who recommends that has no understanding of college football or college athletics.

UConn could absolutely go independent in FBS and be fine. But that being said, they should stay AAC.

(06-30-2017 09:25 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I find the football contract numbers shocking.

$1.2 million for a game at Clemson in 2021????
AState is getting $1.7 million from Bama in 2018 and $1.8 million from Georgia in 2019.

Getting $1.125 million to move a home game with BC to Fenway?
St. Louis offered $1.8 million to get AState to move a game with Mizzou to the new Busch Stadium and $1.5 million from Kansas City to move it to Arrowhead.

Sure looks like UConn is leaving money on the table.

What is shocking to me is UConn has gone from 6.3 million in student fees in 2011 to 17.9 million in 2015 only 4 years later.

Also shocking is that about 20 million of the AAC's 79 million revenue distribution is directly from exit fees which are about to dry up.

Rank and file AAC programs are only getting a 3.5 million distribution from the conference. The MAC received 32 million from ESPN this year (CFP and TV deal) so I bet when NCAA moneys are included they've got to be fairly close to that number.

(06-30-2017 08:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(06-30-2017 08:50 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  The problem with going Indy is that you lose out on the CFP revenue distribution and bowl money shared by the AAC. Last year the AAC received ~$1.7M from the CFP distribution while the Indy schools received $300,000. Thus, if the AAC's new media deal pays ~$3M+1.7M+bowl distribution they would basically be making just as much or possibly less than they would in the Big East/Indy. When you throw in the $10M exit fee UConn would have to give the AAC it makes it even tougher to leave.

Not only that but then the 1 million from SNY. Something they wouldn't get from the Big East.

Right.

The AAC at least has the potential to increase its distribution. The Big East is maxed out in distribution.

Unless the argument can be made that playing in the Big East is going to increase ticket sales enough to offset the CFP revenue or something. My guess is probably not.

Could UConn make more revenue if it played UMass and Army every year in football. My guess is no to that as well.

(06-30-2017 09:40 AM)EmeryZach Wrote:  Any talk about UConn dropping to FCS is ludicrous and quite frankly dumb. Anyone who recommends that has no understanding of college football or college athletics.

UConn could absolutely go independent in FBS and be fine. But that being said, they should stay AAC.

Especially UConn, the school with the most options.

1. B1G. This is probably a stretch for UConn since they only have a 38,000 seat stadium. If the B1G is going to go the basketball route they'll probably go Kansas first but after them UConn is likely the best choice.

2. ACC. UConn was a finalist for the AAC when Louisville was selected. There is no reason to think they wouldn't be a finalist today, however with Cincinnati's football improvements they have probably eclipsed them in desirability.

3. B12. This might be an interesting fit for UConn because let's say the B12 wants to go high end with academics...BYU, UConn. BYU they can give a FB-Only membership to while UConn they can go all sports so the B12 can play a 20 game basketball schedule. It might be worth taking a hit in FB for.

4. Big East: UConn basically has a standing offer to join this conference. This to me sounds like a back up move which only makes sense if the AAC was thrown out of the CFP or something. FB independence is more viable than a few years ago with UMass and Liberty moving up to FBS.

UConn is one movement in the P5 away from finding a home. In the meantime they can help build up the AAC.

This is not an Idaho situation by any stretch of the imagination.

(06-30-2017 12:17 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  what does Conn make off WBB
what is NCAA WBB tour payment
if all revenue is paying coach, what's the point

Ask Wichita State.

Uconn has 2 options.

Move Olympic sports to the BE. That seems like suicide to me. Their cash cow (basketball) will shrink significantly. Their ability to support the football program will dissipate.

Stay the course and improve football as much as possible. Without football there is no P5 invite. Period. Even then, that invite might be a decade away.

I would try and schedule BC as much as possible. As much as Uconn fans hate BC, I bet they would pay premium prices for those games.

Equitable my butt, Aresco. UConn, USF and Cincy collect ZERO exit fees if the league dissolved.

Eight all sport schools are necessary to even have a league. So the only way those three collect any exit fees is Houston, SMU, UCF, Temple, Memphis etc join them.

I think the one thing that is being overlooked from the article which I thought it covere well was the TV money. I agree the problem is there is no way to know what it looks like from 2 years from now. What will be the perception of the league in two years or what will be the networks and even streaming needs be by then? It good be sky high or rock bottom for either. I did find it interesting that the article stated "The AAC's current TV deal primarily for football and basketball (seven years, $126 million, with ESPN) is in its fourth year. The conference will begin shopping itself for a new deal in a year or so, aiming to come to an agreement in 2018 or 2019."

How accurate this is, I have no clue. I do think Aresco tends to overstate where things stand, but I would not expect any less for an Commish. I have thought it in no way benefits ESPN to early seriously negotiate with the AAC from a business perspective since they have the better end of the deal. I know AAC fans will berate me for saying this, but ESPN does have the other conferences as an emergency backup plan. While the AAC is the better conference, ESPN can produce inventory even if lower quality. BYU is not a bad 7pm or 8pm game on ESPNU. The same could go for some MW games. 3:30 games are like noon games for them. Noon games could be filled with the stronger MAC, SB and even CUSA teams. Again, is the quality as good, no. Are the other G5's quality that pitifule, no. The question will be what will be the cost verse ratings break even point. Simple economics. If I had to bet on which side had the stronger hand, I would have to go with ESPN.

As I stated, I hope NBC makes a play for the AAC. I think that would help it be viewed as a power confernece. If NBC does primetime games to go up against ABC, CBS & Fox then I think the chance to become a power conference happens. IMHO, ESPN has too much invested in the current Power Schools to promote the AAC against the P5. If they have to upset a conference, do you see ESPN siding with the AAC over the P5? I think outside bids will be needed to help the AAC get any leverage in the talks. The ironic part, I think to acheive the level they want, they need to be on a non-ESPN network.

I like how all the AAC fans think the BE maxed out and wont get a boost in their next TV deal but the mighty American will at least double it's current contract! hahaha

Only thing is Fox overpaid at the time quite a bit to get the Big East to give them some winter content when FS1 was starting up. That's not going to be the case the next time around at all. ESPN got the AAC on the cheap, while Fox overpaid for the Big East.

Also, the AAC goes to open market after the 2019-20 season. The current Big East deal runs thru the 2024-25 season. So the AAC could easily see themselves get at least equal, if not higher than the Big East in a few years, then go back on the open market again near the same time as the Big East does.......

(06-30-2017 10:02 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(06-30-2017 09:25 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  I find the football contract numbers shocking.

$1.2 million for a game at Clemson in 2021????
AState is getting $1.7 million from Bama in 2018 and $1.8 million from Georgia in 2019.

Getting $1.125 million to move a home game with BC to Fenway?
St. Louis offered $1.8 million to get AState to move a game with Mizzou to the new Busch Stadium and $1.5 million from Kansas City to move it to Arrowhead.

Sure looks like UConn is leaving money on the table.

What is shocking to me is UConn has gone from 6.3 million in student fees in 2011 to 17.9 million in 2015 only 4 years later.

Also shocking is that about 20 million of the AAC's 79 million revenue distribution is directly from exit fees which are about to dry up.

Rank and file AAC programs are only getting a 3.5 million distribution from the conference. The MAC received 32 million from ESPN this year (CFP and TV deal) so I bet when NCAA moneys are included they've got to be fairly close to that number.

The headings are poorly aligned on that chart. That column is actually institutional support. Student fees are still climbing in addition to that (from $6MM to $10MM between 2006 and 2015). When you combine the student fees and the institutional support, that's a huge subsidy. The gist of the article is that even with that subsidy, the loss of the BE settlement payments still puts them in a deep hole.

What would concern me, if I were a UConn fan, is that the talk by some fans about leaving for the Big East, whether plausible or not, implies acceptance of a premise they pooh-poohed just a few years ago. It implies a belief that UConn basketball not only isn't capable of elevating AAC basketball, but also that being in the AAC is pulling UConn hoops down. It says they can't maintain their national stature without being in an eastern, basketball-centric conference.

If that's true, their prognosis is bleak.

(06-30-2017 02:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Only thing is Fox overpaid at the time quite a bit to get the Big East to give them some winter content when FS1 was starting up. That's not going to be the case the next time around at all. ESPN got the AAC on the cheap, while Fox overpaid for the Big East.

Also, the AAC goes to open market after the 2019-20 season. The current Big East deal runs thru the 2024-25 season. So the AAC could easily see themselves get at least equal, if not higher than the Big East in a few years, then go back on the open market again near the same time as the Big East does.......

Overpaid? They paid what they felt they needed to not have a black hole of no programming.

(06-30-2017 02:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(06-30-2017 02:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Only thing is Fox overpaid at the time quite a bit to get the Big East to give them some winter content when FS1 was starting up. That's not going to be the case the next time around at all. ESPN got the AAC on the cheap, while Fox overpaid for the Big East.

Also, the AAC goes to open market after the 2019-20 season. The current Big East deal runs thru the 2024-25 season. So the AAC could easily see themselves get at least equal, if not higher than the Big East in a few years, then go back on the open market again near the same time as the Big East does.......

Overpaid? They paid what they felt they needed to not have a black hole of no programming.

Right. But my point is that the Big East got more than you could have expected as a result of fox needing that content. In 8 years when the Big East goes up again, you're going to have the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and Pac 12 up as well. Big difference there.

(06-30-2017 12:02 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  Uconn has 2 options.

Move Olympic sports to the BE. That seems like suicide to me. Their cash cow (basketball) will shrink significantly. Their ability to support the football program will dissipate.

Stay the course and improve football as much as possible. Without football there is no P5 invite. Period. Even then, that invite might be a decade away.

I would try and schedule BC as much as possible. As much as Uconn fans hate BC, I bet they would pay premium prices for those games.

Schedule BC, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, Maryland, UMASS, and Penn State in the Northeast for All Sports especially for FB and BB OOC, Army OOC for FB, and Villanova, St John's, and Georgetown OOC for BB and Olympic Sports. This will help to fill the BB arena and the FB stadium peeking interest in UConn fans for ticket sales, and the opposing fans will travel the short drives to Connecticut too. Re-build the FB program in the AAC under Edsell and keep the Men's and Women's BB teams at the top, and like you say UConn is one realignment away from joining the P5 schools with the big money coming in. Putting the Olympic Sport in the NBE and following the independent route for FB or dropping to FCS would be suicidal.

(06-30-2017 09:40 AM)EmeryZach Wrote:  Any talk about UConn dropping to FCS is ludicrous and quite frankly dumb. Anyone who recommends that has no understanding of college football or college athletics.

UConn could absolutely go independent in FBS and be fine. But that being said, they should stay AAC.

That's like, your opinion, man.

(06-30-2017 01:50 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  I like how all the AAC fans think the BE maxed out and wont get a boost in their next TV deal but the mighty American will at least double it's current contract! hahaha

I like how you think the opposite.

(06-30-2017 03:38 PM)panite Wrote:  

(06-30-2017 12:02 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  Uconn has 2 options.

Move Olympic sports to the BE. That seems like suicide to me. Their cash cow (basketball) will shrink significantly. Their ability to support the football program will dissipate.

Stay the course and improve football as much as possible. Without football there is no P5 invite. Period. Even then, that invite might be a decade away.

I would try and schedule BC as much as possible. As much as Uconn fans hate BC, I bet they would pay premium prices for those games.

Schedule BC, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, Maryland, UMASS, and Penn State in the Northeast for All Sports especially for FB and BB OOC, Army OOC for FB, and Villanova, St John's, and Georgetown OOC for BB and Olympic Sports. This will help to fill the BB arena and the FB stadium peeking interest in UConn fans for ticket sales, and the opposing fans will travel the short drives to Connecticut too. Re-build the FB program in the AAC under Edsell and keep the Men's and Women's BB teams at the top, and like you say UConn is one realignment away from joining the P5 schools with the big money coming in. Putting the Olympic Sport in the NBE and following the independent route for FB or dropping to FCS would be suicidal.

Don't you think if UConn could schedule those schools OOC every year they would have already done so? All those schools have the leverage and will only schedule UConn on their terms-- if at all.