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Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-06-2017 09:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 04:44 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 02:06 PM)Ourland Wrote:  Phil Steele has a more favorable outlook. He has Rice "improved" in every area. He picks us 4th in the West and says we can win 6 games.

I can see a scenario where we win six. Beat UTEP, FIU, Army, UAB, UNT and then one other (probably UTSA in San Antonio). I think we'll know if this team has a chance at any combination of six wins after the first four games.

How exactly do you see us beating Army? Barring a torrential downpour, I would imagine Army will be favored by double digits against us, despite being at home.

Double digit favorites do get beaten sometimes. I recall Rice beating UH by 28 when Houston was favored by 19.
07-07-2017 12:30 AM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-06-2017 09:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 04:44 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 02:06 PM)Ourland Wrote:  Phil Steele has a more favorable outlook. He has Rice "improved" in every area. He picks us 4th in the West and says we can win 6 games.

I can see a scenario where we win six. Beat UTEP, FIU, Army, UAB, UNT and then one other (probably UTSA in San Antonio). I think we'll know if this team has a chance at any combination of six wins after the first four games.

How exactly do you see us beating Army? Barring a torrential downpour, I would imagine Army will be favored by double digits against us, despite being at home.

I don't disagree about us losing to Army, my mindset was just more "given a scenario where we win six games, who would we beat?". I felt that Army was a more likely win than either UH/ODU/LaTech/USM (I'm not giving us any chance against Stanford or Pitt).
07-07-2017 09:48 AM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-07-2017 09:48 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 09:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 04:44 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 02:06 PM)Ourland Wrote:  Phil Steele has a more favorable outlook. He has Rice "improved" in every area. He picks us 4th in the West and says we can win 6 games.

I can see a scenario where we win six. Beat UTEP, FIU, Army, UAB, UNT and then one other (probably UTSA in San Antonio). I think we'll know if this team has a chance at any combination of six wins after the first four games.

How exactly do you see us beating Army? Barring a torrential downpour, I would imagine Army will be favored by double digits against us, despite being at home.

I don't disagree about us losing to Army, my mindset was just more "given a scenario where we win six games, who would we beat?". I felt that Army was a more likely win than either UH/ODU/LaTech/USM (I'm not giving us any chance against Stanford or Pitt).

I give us no chance against Stanford, Pitt, USM, UH and LaTech, and we'll be heavy underdogs against both ODU and Army. That leaves a potential 5 wins as our likely best case scenario, and we'll be underdogs in at least half of those games.
07-07-2017 01:09 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-07-2017 01:09 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 09:48 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 09:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 04:44 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 02:06 PM)Ourland Wrote:  Phil Steele has a more favorable outlook. He has Rice "improved" in every area. He picks us 4th in the West and says we can win 6 games.

I can see a scenario where we win six. Beat UTEP, FIU, Army, UAB, UNT and then one other (probably UTSA in San Antonio). I think we'll know if this team has a chance at any combination of six wins after the first four games.

How exactly do you see us beating Army? Barring a torrential downpour, I would imagine Army will be favored by double digits against us, despite being at home.

I don't disagree about us losing to Army, my mindset was just more "given a scenario where we win six games, who would we beat?". I felt that Army was a more likely win than either UH/ODU/LaTech/USM (I'm not giving us any chance against Stanford or Pitt).

I give us no chance against Stanford, Pitt, USM, UH and LaTech, and we'll be heavy underdogs against both ODU and Army. That leaves a potential 5 wins as our likely best case scenario, and we'll be underdogs in at least half of those games.

No doubt they will have to exceed expectations. But if expectations defined results, we could just list our 2-10 or 3-9 now, and save a lot of travel money.

what are the odds of 6 wins? Low. Not zero.

Taking it one game at a time.
07-07-2017 01:18 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #35
Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-07-2017 01:09 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 09:48 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 09:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 04:44 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 02:06 PM)Ourland Wrote:  Phil Steele has a more favorable outlook. He has Rice "improved" in every area. He picks us 4th in the West and says we can win 6 games.

I can see a scenario where we win six. Beat UTEP, FIU, Army, UAB, UNT and then one other (probably UTSA in San Antonio). I think we'll know if this team has a chance at any combination of six wins after the first four games.

How exactly do you see us beating Army? Barring a torrential downpour, I would imagine Army will be favored by double digits against us, despite being at home.

I don't disagree about us losing to Army, my mindset was just more "given a scenario where we win six games, who would we beat?". I felt that Army was a more likely win than either UH/ODU/LaTech/USM (I'm not giving us any chance against Stanford or Pitt).

I give us no chance against Stanford, Pitt, USM, UH and LaTech, and we'll be heavy underdogs against both ODU and Army. That leaves a potential 5 wins as our likely best case scenario, and we'll be underdogs in at least half of those games.

What about UNM? We've got a pretty good track record against the MWC here lately in bowl games.

(Let me remind the prognosticators that we recorded an excellent 4-year APR and could be at the top of the list when picking 5-7 teams for bowls. 6 wins is well within reach.)
07-09-2017 07:45 AM
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ranfin Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-09-2017 07:45 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 01:09 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 09:48 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 09:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 04:44 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  I can see a scenario where we win six. Beat UTEP, FIU, Army, UAB, UNT and then one other (probably UTSA in San Antonio). I think we'll know if this team has a chance at any combination of six wins after the first four games.

How exactly do you see us beating Army? Barring a torrential downpour, I would imagine Army will be favored by double digits against us, despite being at home.

I don't disagree about us losing to Army, my mindset was just more "given a scenario where we win six games, who would we beat?". I felt that Army was a more likely win than either UH/ODU/LaTech/USM (I'm not giving us any chance against Stanford or Pitt).

I give us no chance against Stanford, Pitt, USM, UH and LaTech, and we'll be heavy underdogs against both ODU and Army. That leaves a potential 5 wins as our likely best case scenario, and we'll be underdogs in at least half of those games.

What about UNM? We've got a pretty good track record against the MWC here lately in bowl games.

(Let me remind the prognosticators that we recorded an excellent 4-year APR and could be at the top of the list when picking 5-7 teams for bowls. 6 wins is well within reach.)


I'm curious. Where do you think we are most likely to find our six wins?
07-09-2017 08:12 AM
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HawaiiOwl Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-09-2017 07:45 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 01:09 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 09:48 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 09:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 04:44 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  I can see a scenario where we win six. Beat UTEP, FIU, Army, UAB, UNT and then one other (probably UTSA in San Antonio). I think we'll know if this team has a chance at any combination of six wins after the first four games.

How exactly do you see us beating Army? Barring a torrential downpour, I would imagine Army will be favored by double digits against us, despite being at home.

I don't disagree about us losing to Army, my mindset was just more "given a scenario where we win six games, who would we beat?". I felt that Army was a more likely win than either UH/ODU/LaTech/USM (I'm not giving us any chance against Stanford or Pitt).

I give us no chance against Stanford, Pitt, USM, UH and LaTech, and we'll be heavy underdogs against both ODU and Army. That leaves a potential 5 wins as our likely best case scenario, and we'll be underdogs in at least half of those games.

What about UNM? We've got a pretty good track record against the MWC here lately in bowl games.

(Let me remind the prognosticators that we recorded an excellent 4-year APR and could be at the top of the list when picking 5-7 teams for bowls. 6 wins is well within reach.)
And it is soooo exciting to watch a 5-7 DB coached team go to a bowl that no one cares about
07-09-2017 11:39 AM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #38
Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-09-2017 08:12 AM)ranfin Wrote:  
(07-09-2017 07:45 AM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 01:09 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(07-07-2017 09:48 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  
(07-06-2017 09:31 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  How exactly do you see us beating Army? Barring a torrential downpour, I would imagine Army will be favored by double digits against us, despite being at home.

I don't disagree about us losing to Army, my mindset was just more "given a scenario where we win six games, who would we beat?". I felt that Army was a more likely win than either UH/ODU/LaTech/USM (I'm not giving us any chance against Stanford or Pitt).

I give us no chance against Stanford, Pitt, USM, UH and LaTech, and we'll be heavy underdogs against both ODU and Army. That leaves a potential 5 wins as our likely best case scenario, and we'll be underdogs in at least half of those games.

What about UNM? We've got a pretty good track record against the MWC here lately in bowl games.

(Let me remind the prognosticators that we recorded an excellent 4-year APR and could be at the top of the list when picking 5-7 teams for bowls. 6 wins is well within reach.)


I'm curious. Where do you think we are most likely to find our six wins?

I'll share the current Matchup Predictor values from the ESPN Power Index, and mention several possibilities based on those numbers. At the end I'll give you my opinion on where I'd personally adjust their numbers.

Expected value win total: 4 (3.788).

Slight Favorites: 3
FIU (60.2)
UNT (55.5)
@UTEP (52.1)
Slight Underdogs: 2
@UAB(42.5)
USM(42.5)
Underdogs: 4
LaTech(32.0)
@UTSA(29.3)
Army(26.4)
@ODU(23.5)
Heavy Underdogs:3
@UH(7.6)
@PIT(5.5)
vsSTAN(1.7)

So: scenario 1 is that we overachieve our regular season projected win total by only one game. That makes us 5-7 and almost certainly Bowl eligible, where we'd likely be paired against another G5 team with 6 or 7 wins. Very likely a winnable bowl game to make our 6th win. We could do that by only winning games that ESPN currently gives us 42.5% chance or better of winning. Most certainly do-able.

Scenario 2: we win those same 5 regular season games and then steal one out of four from the "Underdogs" block... the games we've been given about a one in four chance of winning anyway. 6 regular season wins and we don't even have to sweat the bowl game! (But we'll win it, too, to make 7)

It gets better: scenario 3: could we would we somehow find a way to win TWO of those four UNDERDOG games. C'mon, it could happen. We've got a new DC and a new quarterback. They don't know what they're gonna get when they play Rice this year** But if we can beat both UTSA and LATech, both games that this metric gives us a fighting chance at (around 30%), plus the other five games we've already seen are winnable... we've got seven regular season wins. Take a closer look at those seven games. Six of them are in division. We'd be 7-1 in CUSA (dropping the ODU game out of division) but would CLINCH the division title and championship game. At 7-1 we could even host the championship game. If ODU is that good then we could get them for a rematch two weeks later in Houston.

Far fetched? I don't think so.
There are 9 winnable games on our regular season schedule with the potential for 11 winnable games including post season.

And that's not even counting UH (in which I think we're underestimated by the index due to the rivalry factor). I also think we may be underestimated vs UNT and Army, and potential overestimated vs USM. Golden Eagles should still be strong this year and I think they'll be the team to beat in the West, more so than LaTech. But we can beat both of them.

Anyway... much more than other years we'll know a lot after four games. UTEP and FIU aren't truly "must wins" but we'll have to win one and be competitive in the other if we intend to make any sort of post season noise.
07-09-2017 01:21 PM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
Sorry -- I see an absolute top end of 4 wins this year. More likely 3. About as likely 2.

Anyone that points at 5 I'd love to have a shot of what you are distilling.
Anyone points at 6 I'd love to have some of what you are smoking.
Anyone points at 7 I'd love to have some of whats on the back of those kid's stamps you have in your pocket.
07-09-2017 02:19 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #40
Football 2017-Texas High School Football's Take...it isn't pretty
(07-09-2017 02:19 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  Sorry -- I see an absolute top end of 4 wins this year. More likely 3. About as likely 2.

Anyone that points at 5 I'd love to have a shot of what you are distilling.
Anyone points at 6 I'd love to have some of what you are smoking.
Anyone points at 7 I'd love to have some of whats on the back of those kid's stamps you have in your pocket.

I haven't decided between 8 & 9 yet. I guess I'm just too full of Rice.
07-09-2017 04:11 PM
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