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Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
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JCGSU Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
(06-26-2017 06:03 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 01:39 AM)TheMackAttack Wrote:  
(06-22-2017 10:45 PM)doberman1 Wrote:  That list is either outdated or wrong. They have us with 4 committments and as of today we have 11. I realize it is tough keeping up with everybody and kids committ somewhere every day. This list was done about a month ago. Will they update this from time to time?

The list only shows players that have a rating, they actually show you with 8. On the bright side, you could be App State, who has a freaking 24/7 site and still can only get 6/11 players rated.

Why get caught up in what some guy from who knows where that has never seen these kids play thinks about our recruits? I could care less if we finish last in the SB every year in these so-called recruting sites lists. Ask Satterfield what he thinks of these sites. Our team is full of low rated players who have been, or will be, All SB team guys. I put far more trust in what the coaches think than some guy who more than likely has never snapped on a helmet.

Yes because who did you beat of note at all in the FBS? App has beaten teams where the talent disparity is not that huge but has yet to beat anyone where the talent disparity is huge. The last time you played the team in the Sun Belt with the highest rated roster they curbed stomped you as well. Also App was the only team with that low rated talent to share a conference title much less have a winning record. So yes hold on to that coach as long as you can because he is beating the odds for now.

Other things play a part in winning like ummm coaching and development that is how a team that lead the FBS or close to it in rushing for two straight years goes to crap with but talent will always be the #1 factor. It is not exact so people use the mentally lazy few examples of a few players or teams that exceed roster expectations and ignore the 90% of other teams and literally thousands of players that perform extremely close if not dead on where the rankings had them. You will not win consistently nor beat any teams of note with low rated talent the vast majority of the time period. One class or two good or bad classes are not going to kill you or change much it is the totality of your roster. We out recruited P5's in 2016 but when you follow that up with being in the bottom 1/4 you probably will remain the same. If we are any team consistently stayed in the 70's when the rest of the conference were in the 90's+ over a long period that team would crush the conference with competent coaching. Just because they are not 100% dead on or predict every game does not mean they don have merit. There is a reason the recruit rankings look a whole hell of a lot like the actual rankings and conference standings. It is a very strong correlation. For every App that greatly exceeds exceptions based on total team talent rank there are ton they fall right inline.
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2017 11:52 AM by JCGSU.)
06-26-2017 11:40 AM
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USAJag2011 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
(06-26-2017 11:40 AM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 06:03 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 01:39 AM)TheMackAttack Wrote:  
(06-22-2017 10:45 PM)doberman1 Wrote:  That list is either outdated or wrong. They have us with 4 committments and as of today we have 11. I realize it is tough keeping up with everybody and kids committ somewhere every day. This list was done about a month ago. Will they update this from time to time?

The list only shows players that have a rating, they actually show you with 8. On the bright side, you could be App State, who has a freaking 24/7 site and still can only get 6/11 players rated.

Why get caught up in what some guy from who knows where that has never seen these kids play thinks about our recruits? I could care less if we finish last in the SB every year in these so-called recruting sites lists. Ask Satterfield what he thinks of these sites. Our team is full of low rated players who have been, or will be, All SB team guys. I put far more trust in what the coaches think than some guy who more than likely has never snapped on a helmet.

Yes because who did you beat of note at all in the FBS? App has beaten teams where the talent disparity is not that huge but has yet to beat anyone where the talent disparity is huge. The last time you played the team in the Sun Belt with the highest rated roster they curbed stomped you as well. Also App was the only team with that low rated talent to share a conference title much less have a winning record. So yes hold on to that coach as long as you can because he is beating the odds for now.

Other things play a part in winning like ummm coaching and development that is how a team that lead the FBS or close to it in rushing for two straight years goes to crap with but talent will always be the #1 factor. It is not exact so people use the mentally lazy few examples of a few players or teams that exceed roster expectations and ignore the 90% of other teams and literally thousands of players that perform extremely close if not dead on where the rankings had them. You will not win consistently nor beat any teams of note with low rated talent the vast majority of the time period. One class or two good or bad classes are not going to kill you or change much it is the totality of your roster. We out recruited P5's in 2016 but when you follow that up with being in the bottom 1/4 you probably will remain the same. If we are any team consistently stayed in the 70's when the rest of the conference were in the 90's+ over a long period that team would crush the conference with competent coaching. Just because they are not 100% dead on or predict every game does not mean they don have merit. There is a reason the recruit rankings look a whole hell of a lot like the actual rankings and conference standings. It is a very strong correlation. For every App that greatly exceeds exceptions based on total team talent rank there are ton they fall right inline.

I agree with you. Development is the key to success at this level. App does a tremendous job at that. A lot of times, the difference between the 3* guy and a 4* guy are his size, strength and fundamentals.

If you take a high 3* player and give him a season of FBS S&C and a good position coach to teach the advanced fundamentals, they can very well become a 4* caliber talent. That doesn't mean the recruiting sites had it all wrong, it just means at the time, they were 3* caliber athletes.
06-26-2017 01:19 PM
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Crump1 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
(06-22-2017 09:46 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  
(06-22-2017 10:47 AM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2017 06:00 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  
(06-21-2017 02:43 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  https://n.rivals.com/team_rankings/2018/sbelt

Missing about 5 of our commits and we have a transfer from Ball State and one from Boise.

Christian Howard

Howard is coming this year as a late add.

Cameron Myers


Just in case some don't know this, transfers from four-year schools aren't added in recruiting rankings.
We know this but just in case some don't know, those players play football and have the same impact. It is one reason recruiting rankings are more useless than they ever were.


But do we know why recruiting services don't include them? The answer is that they have little to no video they can use to rank those players again since most did not see significant action at their previous school. Using their rankings from high school or JUCO would rarely ever be accurate since they probably weren't ranked correctly to begin with or they would have played more (at least those coming from P5 schools).
Case in point, LB/S Shawn Jennings is transferring to South Alabama from Alabama. He was a pretty high three-star player coming out of high school but redshirted his only year at UA. Thanks to being an early enrollee, he's has two springs and a fall at Alabama, so he's likely a better player now than in high school, but how good is anyone's guess. Maybe he was accurately rated in high school but can't break through Alabama's depth or maybe he was overrated originally but now may have improved enough to be worthy. It's impossible to know.
I know it's frustrating to not have these players included in recruiting classes, but the difficulty in judging them and the wide variations in how much experience they have and eligibility remaining makes leaving them out of class rankings the right move, in my opinion.
Sorry if my initial response seemed like I was talking down to you. That wasn't my intent. There are some folks that request transfers be added to commit lists all the time without realizing that they aren't there for a reason. That's who I was talking to.
I'll see about adding Ark St's commitments to the 247 list, but I'm surprised the Scout lists aren't already being used to update them.
It is no more difficult to evaluate or rank. HS film is hard to judge due to varying levels of competition. Take our starting QB, Justice Hansen. Four star guy out of HS. RS for one year, transfer to JC for one year then to ASU. He didn't play and fail. He likely got beat out by another 4 star at OU. You can't say he is a 3 star minimum as easily as you can some kid from a 2A school in LA? You can't look at his HS film and the camps he went to 2 yeas ago? Of course you could but that is more work and the goal of recruiting services is entertainment to drive subscriptions. Accuracy and thorough evaluation is not the goal and cannot be achieved when they allow people with no experience to weigh in on the ratings. YOu do your best to make the subscribers happy.
06-26-2017 02:26 PM
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JCGSU Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
(06-26-2017 01:19 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 11:40 AM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 06:03 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 01:39 AM)TheMackAttack Wrote:  
(06-22-2017 10:45 PM)doberman1 Wrote:  That list is either outdated or wrong. They have us with 4 committments and as of today we have 11. I realize it is tough keeping up with everybody and kids committ somewhere every day. This list was done about a month ago. Will they update this from time to time?

The list only shows players that have a rating, they actually show you with 8. On the bright side, you could be App State, who has a freaking 24/7 site and still can only get 6/11 players rated.

Why get caught up in what some guy from who knows where that has never seen these kids play thinks about our recruits? I could care less if we finish last in the SB every year in these so-called recruting sites lists. Ask Satterfield what he thinks of these sites. Our team is full of low rated players who have been, or will be, All SB team guys. I put far more trust in what the coaches think than some guy who more than likely has never snapped on a helmet.

Yes because who did you beat of note at all in the FBS? App has beaten teams where the talent disparity is not that huge but has yet to beat anyone where the talent disparity is huge. The last time you played the team in the Sun Belt with the highest rated roster they curbed stomped you as well. Also App was the only team with that low rated talent to share a conference title much less have a winning record. So yes hold on to that coach as long as you can because he is beating the odds for now.

Other things play a part in winning like ummm coaching and development that is how a team that lead the FBS or close to it in rushing for two straight years goes to crap with but talent will always be the #1 factor. It is not exact so people use the mentally lazy few examples of a few players or teams that exceed roster expectations and ignore the 90% of other teams and literally thousands of players that perform extremely close if not dead on where the rankings had them. You will not win consistently nor beat any teams of note with low rated talent the vast majority of the time period. One class or two good or bad classes are not going to kill you or change much it is the totality of your roster. We out recruited P5's in 2016 but when you follow that up with being in the bottom 1/4 you probably will remain the same. If we are any team consistently stayed in the 70's when the rest of the conference were in the 90's+ over a long period that team would crush the conference with competent coaching. Just because they are not 100% dead on or predict every game does not mean they don have merit. There is a reason the recruit rankings look a whole hell of a lot like the actual rankings and conference standings. It is a very strong correlation. For every App that greatly exceeds exceptions based on total team talent rank there are ton they fall right inline.

I agree with you. Development is the key to success at this level. App does a tremendous job at that. A lot of times, the difference between the 3* guy and a 4* guy are his size, strength and fundamentals.

If you take a high 3* player and give him a season of FBS S&C and a good position coach to teach the advanced fundamentals, they can very well become a 4* caliber talent. That doesn't mean the recruiting sites had it all wrong, it just means at the time, they were 3* caliber athletes.

3* is way to vague these days. 3* can mean you going to an FCS or being recruited by Alabama. Most P5 rosters are 3* kids just really high 3* kids. With 3* the grade is more telling. You give Nick Saban Kent states roster he is not winning nothing but a MAC championship at best. Coaching and development matter but if you have a bigger and faster kids to develop that already have done well in HS you are doing to do better. That is my point. Yes Satterfield is a great coach, give him high three and four star kids he will crush any Sun Belt team and probably beat Miami instead of being curbed stomped by them. Exceptions to the rule are just that the overwhelming majority of the TOTAL team rankings shows up in wins and most kids pan out where they were ranked. These are humans so looking at the individual team or player level is useless you have to look a large group of data to see if these rankings are reliable. They are whether it is wins, bowls, championships and who makes the NFL. Five star kids make the NFL a much higher RATE than four, four make it at much higher rate than three etc....
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2017 04:32 PM by JCGSU.)
06-26-2017 04:26 PM
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AtlantaJag Offline
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Post: #35
Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
(06-26-2017 02:26 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-22-2017 09:46 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  
(06-22-2017 10:47 AM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2017 06:00 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  
(06-21-2017 02:43 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  https://n.rivals.com/team_rankings/2018/sbelt

Missing about 5 of our commits and we have a transfer from Ball State and one from Boise.

Christian Howard

Howard is coming this year as a late add.

Cameron Myers


Just in case some don't know this, transfers from four-year schools aren't added in recruiting rankings.
We know this but just in case some don't know, those players play football and have the same impact. It is one reason recruiting rankings are more useless than they ever were.


But do we know why recruiting services don't include them? The answer is that they have little to no video they can use to rank those players again since most did not see significant action at their previous school. Using their rankings from high school or JUCO would rarely ever be accurate since they probably weren't ranked correctly to begin with or they would have played more (at least those coming from P5 schools).
Case in point, LB/S Shawn Jennings is transferring to South Alabama from Alabama. He was a pretty high three-star player coming out of high school but redshirted his only year at UA. Thanks to being an early enrollee, he's has two springs and a fall at Alabama, so he's likely a better player now than in high school, but how good is anyone's guess. Maybe he was accurately rated in high school but can't break through Alabama's depth or maybe he was overrated originally but now may have improved enough to be worthy. It's impossible to know.
I know it's frustrating to not have these players included in recruiting classes, but the difficulty in judging them and the wide variations in how much experience they have and eligibility remaining makes leaving them out of class rankings the right move, in my opinion.
Sorry if my initial response seemed like I was talking down to you. That wasn't my intent. There are some folks that request transfers be added to commit lists all the time without realizing that they aren't there for a reason. That's who I was talking to.
I'll see about adding Ark St's commitments to the 247 list, but I'm surprised the Scout lists aren't already being used to update them.
It is no more difficult to evaluate or rank. HS film is hard to judge due to varying levels of competition. Take our starting QB, Justice Hansen. Four star guy out of HS. RS for one year, transfer to JC for one year then to ASU. He didn't play and fail. He likely got beat out by another 4 star at OU. You can't say he is a 3 star minimum as easily as you can some kid from a 2A school in LA? You can't look at his HS film and the camps he went to 2 yeas ago? Of course you could but that is more work and the goal of recruiting services is entertainment to drive subscriptions. Accuracy and thorough evaluation is not the goal and cannot be achieved when they allow people with no experience to weigh in on the ratings. YOu do your best to make the subscribers happy.

If you want evaluators to go off high school film, they could just use their high school rating, but after a couple of years of growth (or lack thereof) or development (or lack thereof) or injuries it would be a complete shot in the dark about what level of player they are now.
You obviously don't believe in the recruiting services (although the few I know personally all have a background in coaching or playing at high school or college) but I would think everyone would respect the reason they don't add transfers to recruiting classes is because they realize they wouldn't have enough information to rate them correctly.

Hansen went to a JUCO, got some current film and was rated a pretty high three star player (87 by 247) when he signed with Arkansas State. That seems like a pretty good reevaluation to me as he didn't prove himself to be better than a four star at OK but is still obviously a good player.
06-26-2017 04:49 PM
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CatMom Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
We now have 12 commits. Added 2 today.
06-26-2017 06:02 PM
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JCGSU Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
(06-26-2017 02:26 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-22-2017 09:46 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  
(06-22-2017 10:47 AM)Crump1 Wrote:  
(06-21-2017 06:00 PM)AtlantaJag Wrote:  
(06-21-2017 02:43 PM)Crump1 Wrote:  https://n.rivals.com/team_rankings/2018/sbelt

Missing about 5 of our commits and we have a transfer from Ball State and one from Boise.

Christian Howard

Howard is coming this year as a late add.

Cameron Myers


Just in case some don't know this, transfers from four-year schools aren't added in recruiting rankings.
We know this but just in case some don't know, those players play football and have the same impact. It is one reason recruiting rankings are more useless than they ever were.


But do we know why recruiting services don't include them? The answer is that they have little to no video they can use to rank those players again since most did not see significant action at their previous school. Using their rankings from high school or JUCO would rarely ever be accurate since they probably weren't ranked correctly to begin with or they would have played more (at least those coming from P5 schools).
Case in point, LB/S Shawn Jennings is transferring to South Alabama from Alabama. He was a pretty high three-star player coming out of high school but redshirted his only year at UA. Thanks to being an early enrollee, he's has two springs and a fall at Alabama, so he's likely a better player now than in high school, but how good is anyone's guess. Maybe he was accurately rated in high school but can't break through Alabama's depth or maybe he was overrated originally but now may have improved enough to be worthy. It's impossible to know.
I know it's frustrating to not have these players included in recruiting classes, but the difficulty in judging them and the wide variations in how much experience they have and eligibility remaining makes leaving them out of class rankings the right move, in my opinion.
Sorry if my initial response seemed like I was talking down to you. That wasn't my intent. There are some folks that request transfers be added to commit lists all the time without realizing that they aren't there for a reason. That's who I was talking to.
I'll see about adding Ark St's commitments to the 247 list, but I'm surprised the Scout lists aren't already being used to update them.
It is no more difficult to evaluate or rank. HS film is hard to judge due to varying levels of competition. Take our starting QB, Justice Hansen. Four star guy out of HS. RS for one year, transfer to JC for one year then to ASU. He didn't play and fail. He likely got beat out by another 4 star at OU. You can't say he is a 3 star minimum as easily as you can some kid from a 2A school in LA? You can't look at his HS film and the camps he went to 2 yeas ago? Of course you could but that is more work and the goal of recruiting services is entertainment to drive subscriptions. Accuracy and thorough evaluation is not the goal and cannot be achieved when they allow people with no experience to weigh in on the ratings. YOu do your best to make the subscribers happy.

Then half your subscribers would be mad..that make no sense. The ratings are back up by the offers. If a kid is rated a five star and he is getting 70 offers mostly from P5's then it is probably correct. You not going to have any of the services rate a kid a five star and them only have G5 offers nor will two star kid have any Alabama type offers. A coaches offer is their evaluation of the player it is no coincidence the ratings, most of which are done well before most offers, line up.

Transfers will go into the total team talent ranking on 24/7. It does not matter what school they initially went to.
06-26-2017 06:24 PM
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Crump1 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
The evaluators are often not experienced at all and even having playing or coaching experience at the college level does not mean you are a great evaluator of talent. Yes, the 5 stars and 4 stars are easy and you can look at offers. Anything below that is a total crapshoot. You see it every year where kids who are rated two stars or lower will shoot up the charts due to a handful of solid offers. They were already "evaluated" by the "experts" yet they miraculously became more talented overnight.

On the other hand, I have seen 3 and 4 star kids end up going D2 because some goober got caught up in camp stats or hype or just liked a kid.

I don't want transfers reevaluated or added. Never suggested that at all. Those players are simply another piece of the puzzle that cannot be remotely solved by recruiting rankings.

Nearly all of our best players based on college or NFL success over the last 20 years were lightly recruited and low rated.
06-27-2017 04:36 PM
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Bobcat87 Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
(06-26-2017 06:02 PM)CatMom Wrote:  We now have 12 commits. Added 2 today.

Here's hoping that we can hang onto them . . . . ..
06-27-2017 04:41 PM
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airtroop Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Way Too Early Recruiting Rankings
(06-26-2017 04:26 PM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 01:19 PM)USAJag2011 Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 11:40 AM)JCGSU Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 06:03 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  
(06-26-2017 01:39 AM)TheMackAttack Wrote:  The list only shows players that have a rating, they actually show you with 8. On the bright side, you could be App State, who has a freaking 24/7 site and still can only get 6/11 players rated.

Why get caught up in what some guy from who knows where that has never seen these kids play thinks about our recruits? I could care less if we finish last in the SB every year in these so-called recruting sites lists. Ask Satterfield what he thinks of these sites. Our team is full of low rated players who have been, or will be, All SB team guys. I put far more trust in what the coaches think than some guy who more than likely has never snapped on a helmet.

Yes because who did you beat of note at all in the FBS? App has beaten teams where the talent disparity is not that huge but has yet to beat anyone where the talent disparity is huge. The last time you played the team in the Sun Belt with the highest rated roster they curbed stomped you as well. Also App was the only team with that low rated talent to share a conference title much less have a winning record. So yes hold on to that coach as long as you can because he is beating the odds for now.

Other things play a part in winning like ummm coaching and development that is how a team that lead the FBS or close to it in rushing for two straight years goes to crap with but talent will always be the #1 factor. It is not exact so people use the mentally lazy few examples of a few players or teams that exceed roster expectations and ignore the 90% of other teams and literally thousands of players that perform extremely close if not dead on where the rankings had them. You will not win consistently nor beat any teams of note with low rated talent the vast majority of the time period. One class or two good or bad classes are not going to kill you or change much it is the totality of your roster. We out recruited P5's in 2016 but when you follow that up with being in the bottom 1/4 you probably will remain the same. If we are any team consistently stayed in the 70's when the rest of the conference were in the 90's+ over a long period that team would crush the conference with competent coaching. Just because they are not 100% dead on or predict every game does not mean they don have merit. There is a reason the recruit rankings look a whole hell of a lot like the actual rankings and conference standings. It is a very strong correlation. For every App that greatly exceeds exceptions based on total team talent rank there are ton they fall right inline.

I agree with you. Development is the key to success at this level. App does a tremendous job at that. A lot of times, the difference between the 3* guy and a 4* guy are his size, strength and fundamentals.

If you take a high 3* player and give him a season of FBS S&C and a good position coach to teach the advanced fundamentals, they can very well become a 4* caliber talent. That doesn't mean the recruiting sites had it all wrong, it just means at the time, they were 3* caliber athletes.

3* is way to vague these days. 3* can mean you going to an FCS or being recruited by Alabama. Most P5 rosters are 3* kids just really high 3* kids. With 3* the grade is more telling. You give Nick Saban Kent states roster he is not winning nothing but a MAC championship at best. Coaching and development matter but if you have a bigger and faster kids to develop that already have done well in HS you are doing to do better. That is my point. Yes Satterfield is a great coach, give him high three and four star kids he will crush any Sun Belt team and probably beat Miami instead of being curbed stomped by them. Exceptions to the rule are just that the overwhelming majority of the TOTAL team rankings shows up in wins and most kids pan out where they were ranked. These are humans so looking at the individual team or player level is useless you have to look a large group of data to see if these rankings are reliable. They are whether it is wins, bowls, championships and who makes the NFL. Five star kids make the NFL a much higher RATE than four, four make it at much higher rate than three etc....

Same (bolded) can be said of most NFL rosters as well. Don't get me wrong, I'm not disagreeing with anything you've stated. Also, true statement or not, remember Bear Bryant famously said "I'll give you my guys and you give me yours and I'll still beat you." I've always loved that one.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2017 05:19 PM by airtroop.)
06-27-2017 05:16 PM
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