But at the end of the day we're talking about total demand for oil/gas. Hybrid reduces it. All electric really reduces it.

It's a matter of time. Doesn't have to be today. Especially when you're talking about planning cycles for major oil production capital projects that last decades ...

(06-21-2017 12:16 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  So every time you get in your car, you drive no less than 100 miles?

Words have meaning. I can only respond to what is written.

Why must you deal in absolutes? I drive more than 100 miles per day several times a week. I also need a vehicle that I can hook up to 12,000 pounds several times a week and tote it anywhere from 20 -200 miles. My wife drives to appointments and routinely drives 100- 150 miles a day.

If you want to look at the bigger picture, start thinking more than cars. Trucks and SUV's make up 63% of new vehicle sales. Not too many electric trucks running around out there. I doubt it would be 20 miles. On a related note, Chrysler released a hybrid minivan... with an electric range of 33 miles.

(06-21-2017 12:00 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  So change the taxi's to electric.

Hasn't changed my point, or the end result.

And you would still lose money.

Metro commutes arent the norm. And for cities where they are common, people arent doing them as much in their own vehicles. Therefore, the population of vehicles you are trying to desperately say would convert to electric can not until the battery system, including range, recharge, and price is addressed.

(06-21-2017 12:28 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  I drive more than 100 miles per day several times a week. I also need a vehicle that I can hook up to 12,000 pounds several times a week and tote it anywhere from 20 -200 miles. My wife drives to appointments and routinely drives 100- 150 miles a day.

So if a $25k electric car with 150mile range were available, it would exactly suit your wife's needs and could be your household's second vehicle to your tow vehicle?

(06-21-2017 12:28 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  If you want to look at the bigger picture, start thinking more than cars. Trucks and SUV's make up 63% of new vehicle sales. Not too many electric trucks running around out there. I doubt it would be 20 miles. On a related note, Chrysler released a hybrid minivan... with an electric range of 33 miles.

I could buy 63% in terms of sales dollars ... trucks and SUVs are expensive. But in terms of new vehicle gallons of gas used? Don't think 63% holds.

Baby steps. Just because something isn't available today, doesn't mean it's impossible tomorrow.

(06-21-2017 12:29 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Metro commutes arent the norm. And for cities where they are common, people arent doing them as much in their own vehicles. Therefore, the population of vehicles you are trying to desperately say would convert to electric can not until the battery system, including range, recharge, and price is addressed.

In terms of total vehicle miles driven, I'm certain that commutes of less than 50mi each way make up a substantial amount. I won't move from that unless you show facts.

Maybe in NYC you have a point, but in most US metros its people commuting in their own cars.

(06-21-2017 12:35 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 12:29 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Metro commutes arent the norm. And for cities where they are common, people arent doing them as much in their own vehicles. Therefore, the population of vehicles you are trying to desperately say would convert to electric can not until the battery system, including range, recharge, and price is addressed.

In terms of total vehicle miles driven, I'm certain that commutes of less than 50mi each way make up a substantial amount. I won't move from that unless you show facts.

Maybe in NYC you have a point, but in most US metros its people commuting in their own cars.

You wont move from that even with the facts.

Wait until you have kids and see how much "commuting" the average person actually does. These people can not just stop their day for a 5 hour charge, or be concerned that they only have 10 miles left on their current charge.

(06-21-2017 12:41 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  These people can not just stop their day for a 5 hour charge, or be concerned that they only have 10 miles left on their current charge.

No one is talking about that, except for you.

On 100mile daily charge, 20mi commute each way, then soccer practice, grocery store, etc. after work, maybe another 30 miles total. Well within range.

(06-21-2017 12:43 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 12:41 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  These people can not just stop their day for a 5 hour charge, or be concerned that they only have 10 miles left on their current charge.

No one is talking about that, except for you.

On 100mile daily charge, 20mi commute each way, then soccer practice, grocery store, etc. after work, maybe another 30 miles total. Well within range.

Then you get stuck in traffic, it's hot outside, and you drain the battery early and strand yourself on the side of the road.

If you're not moving, you're using relatively little battery.

I get your point ... the range is a concern. Didn't say otherwise. You don't need to keep repeating the same point over and over.


The thread is about when -- not if -- the range improves to the point where demand for oil/gas dwindles, yet the oil companies have sunk trillions into new capital projects.

(06-21-2017 12:43 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 12:41 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  These people can not just stop their day for a 5 hour charge, or be concerned that they only have 10 miles left on their current charge.

No one is talking about that, except for you.

On 100mile daily charge, 20mi commute each way, then soccer practice, grocery store, etc. after work, maybe another 30 miles total. Well within range.

You are trying to apply "theory" to a problem that most already know the answer to due to "reality". Its the reason why I believe some college professors to be amongst the most stupid problem solvers on the planet.

You are dealing in averages to make it look like it will work. Averages are dangerous. They make something look feasible thats not. Its why people have cash flow problems. Its why people get fooled into thinking they can cost justify green energy.

In summary, you have to allow the vehicle to match the person's reality, not the average of the entire year. The reality is, they dont nail the 50 mile average per day. Some days are more, some are less. You are basically saying that their life has to change because "more" is no longer ever allowed. And that wont happen.

(06-21-2017 11:24 AM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Oil will be viable until oil runs out.

Seriously.

(06-21-2017 12:48 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  If you're not moving, you're using relatively little battery.

I get your point ... the range is a concern. Didn't say otherwise. You don't need to keep repeating the same point over and over.


The thread is about when -- not if -- the range improves to the point where demand for oil/gas dwindles, yet the oil companies have sunk trillions into new capital projects.

OK, so we have come to an agreement on the current issues facing most people with a purely electric car.

Now, my next point is that Oil is not only used in the US, so while we may decrease our dependence on oil, the rest of the developing world may need more of it. So from that perspective, the capital investments may not be a bad thing over time.

If these capital investments have a relatively quick break even and they improve efficiency, threat to the environment, etc, then they probably are very good investments.

Finally, we still haven't solved the issue with the production of electricity. How are we going to produce more electricity in the short run? Nuclear, in liberal states, is not an option (see California for that). How about coal? Natural gas?

(06-21-2017 12:33 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 12:28 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  I drive more than 100 miles per day several times a week. I also need a vehicle that I can hook up to 12,000 pounds several times a week and tote it anywhere from 20 -200 miles. My wife drives to appointments and routinely drives 100- 150 miles a day.

So if a $25k electric car with 150mile range were available, it would exactly suit your wife's needs and could be your household's second vehicle to your tow vehicle?

Nope. There is too much distance between cities that she travels to and from. I don't wan't my wife pushing the limits of an electric vehicle and being caught short. What happens if she gets home one day and has to run back to town for an emergency or even to pick up a loaf a bread? The closest store is 20 miles away. It would have to be a hybrid at best.

We live in NC so the A/C is pretty much a necessity half they year. What does that do to range? There aren't many charging stations around here, so realistically she could only charge at home overnight. How big is it? She has a small SUV right now and the entire back if filled with her equipment. Room for kids in the backseat?

(06-21-2017 12:33 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 12:28 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  If you want to look at the bigger picture, start thinking more than cars. Trucks and SUV's make up 63% of new vehicle sales. Not too many electric trucks running around out there. I doubt it would be 20 miles. On a related note, Chrysler released a hybrid minivan... with an electric range of 33 miles.

I could buy 63% in terms of sales dollars ... trucks and SUVs are expensive. But in terms of new vehicle gallons of gas used? Don't think 63% holds.

Baby steps. Just because something isn't available today, doesn't mean it's impossible tomorrow.

Wrong. That's a percentage of units sold. For a little perspective, the F-150 was the best selling vehicle in the US in 2016 (820,799 units). The Camry was the best selling car, just 388,618 units.

Don't know wtf "terms of new vehicle gallons of gas used" means. You're trying to make up some meaningless stat to fit your narrative.

(06-21-2017 12:50 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  In summary, you have to allow the vehicle to match the person's reality, not the average of the entire year. The reality is, they dont nail the 50 mile average per day. Some days are more, some are less. You are basically saying that their life has to change because "more" is no longer ever allowed. And that wont happen.

OTOH, you're making it out like a person throws a dice to determine how many miles they drive that day. 50, 50, 55, 60, oops, 200! with zero ability to foresee and plan for a large disturbance to the normal trend.

That's not the case.

If a person truly thinks that they will need to drive 150 miles in a day, multiple times in the coming year, then they're unlikely to buy a car with 100 mile range as their only vehicle. Never claimed otherwise.

(06-21-2017 01:04 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  If these capital investments have a relatively quick break even and they improve efficiency, threat to the environment, etc, then they probably are very good investments.

I don't think they do have a quick ROI. Hence the article, and the thread.

(06-21-2017 01:04 PM)GrayBeard Wrote:  How are we going to produce more electricity in the short run?

Not what the thread is about. We aren't going to build oil/gas burning power plants.

(06-21-2017 01:23 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Nope. There is too much distance between cities that she travels to and from. I don't wan't my wife pushing the limits of an electric vehicle and being caught short. What happens if she gets home one day and has to run back to town for an emergency or even to pick up a loaf a bread? The closest store is 20 miles away. It would have to be a hybrid at best.

We live in NC so the A/C is pretty much a necessity half they year. What does that do to range? There aren't many charging stations around here, so realistically she could only charge at home overnight. How big is it? She has a small SUV right now and the entire back if filled with her equipment. Room for kids in the backseat?

All valid points ... for today. For 20 years from now? Might not be valid.

(06-21-2017 01:23 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Wrong. That's a percentage of units sold. For a little perspective, the F-150 was the best selling vehicle in the US in 2016 (820,799 units). The Camry was the best selling car, just 388,618 units.

Don't know wtf "terms of new vehicle gallons of gas used" means. You're trying to make up some meaningless stat to fit your narrative.

The thread boils down to demand for oil/gas. So the point was going to be that if new trucks/SUV's don't account for as much of the oil/gas demand as the sales percentage you indicated, then that wouldn't be as relevant. But it's moot since you've now indicated units.


Heavy trucks are obviously going to be a more difficult nut to crack.

So, I guess if you hate the idea of electric vehicles for any reason and want to support oil companies, then you should continue to buy heavy trucks and SUVs for the foreseeable future!

you guy's are still going on with this shinny object thread created by MPLS to distract from last night?

(06-21-2017 01:27 PM)hoopfan Wrote:  you guy's are still going on with this shinny object thread created by MPLS to distract from last night?

Not really distracting from anything. Anybody with a brain knew what was going to happen in GA and SC. The only upset people are brainwashed and mentally deficient libs.

(06-21-2017 01:29 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 01:27 PM)hoopfan Wrote:  you guy's are still going on with this shinny object thread created by MPLS to distract from last night?

Not really distracting from anything. Anybody with a brain knew what was going to happen in GA and SC. The only upset people are brainwashed and mentally deficient libs.

ie: MPLS

(06-21-2017 01:27 PM)hoopfan Wrote:  you guy's are still going on with this shinny object thread created by MPLS to distract from last night?

Some people enjoy substantive discussions

(06-21-2017 01:27 PM)hoopfan Wrote:  you guy's are still going on with this shinny object thread created by MPLS to distract from last night?

Bwahahahaha i wondered when someone would point this out 50+ posts