http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climat...9B3AR?il=0

Quote:Energy giants including Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) risk wasting more than a third of their budgets on projects that will not be needed if climate targets are to be met, a thinktank report shows.

More than $2 trillion of planned investment in oil and gas projects by 2025 could be redundant if governments stick to targets to lower carbon emissions to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, according to a report by the Carbon Tracker thinktank and institutional investors.

I think it makes perfect sense: as more and more people switch to electricity as the primary source of automotive transportation (cars, light trucks, buses, and rail), the world will simply need less and less oil.

Natural gas will displace oil as the primary fossil fuel energy source.

(06-21-2017 09:04 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I think it makes perfect sense: as more and more people switch to electricity as the primary source of automotive transportation (cars, light trucks, buses, and rail), the world will simply need less and less oil.

Natural gas will displace oil as the primary fossil fuel energy source.

Oil is used for more than just fuel in a gas tank.

Plastic is oil based. With no oil, your car, cell phone and computer equipment don't exist in their present configurations. Cars would have to go back to being heavy steel, probably requiring more power than batteries could provide.

(06-21-2017 09:04 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  I think it makes perfect sense: as more and more people switch to electricity as the primary source of automotive transportation (cars, light trucks, buses, and rail), the world will simply need less and less oil.

Natural gas will displace oil as the primary fossil fuel energy source.

You do realize that you get Natural Gas out of the ground the same way you get oil out of the ground?? No?

(06-21-2017 09:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  Oil is used for more than just fuel in a gas tank.

Plastic is oil based. With no oil, your car, cell phone and computer equipment don't exist in their present configurations. Cars would have to go back to being heavy steel, probably requiring more power than batteries could provide.

I made no claim that oil production would go to zero. Also specifically framed the discussion in terms of energy source, not plastics.

(06-21-2017 09:36 AM)Crebman Wrote:  You do realize that you get Natural Gas out of the ground the same way you get oil out of the ground?? No?

What is your point?

This is unlikely to occur.

Mass investments by the big companies, Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, etc. are being misconstrued by this "think tank."

Those companies are more akin to banks than oil companies these days and with the massive shift away from their type of business models these "investments" are intended to shore up reserves to look pretty to the Street.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, in senior management is making mass investments with the belief that oil is going to be reaching a price that makes it financially viable.

(06-21-2017 09:03 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climat...9B3AR?il=0

Quote:Energy giants including Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) risk wasting more than a third of their budgets on projects that will not be needed if climate targets are to be met, a thinktank report shows.

More than $2 trillion of planned investment in oil and gas projects by 2025 could be redundant if governments stick to targets to lower carbon emissions to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, according to a report by the Carbon Tracker thinktank and institutional investors.

"According to a report by the Carbon Tracker thinktank" Yeah, I'm sure they looked at it objectively.

In either case, two major players have said they don't anticipate their assets being redundant in the near future. Oil is here to stay until there is a major breakthrough in battery technology.

Rail is already nearly 100% electric and has been for some time.

(06-21-2017 09:46 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  This is unlikely to occur.

Mass investments by the big companies, Exxon, Royal Dutch Shell, etc. are being misconstrued by this "think tank."

Those companies are more akin to banks than oil companies these days and with the massive shift away from their type of business models these "investments" are intended to shore up reserves to look pretty to the Street.

Nobody, and I mean nobody, in senior management is making mass investments with the belief that oil is going to be reaching a price that makes it financially viable.

So are you saying the companies aren't going to be making those investments at all? (when you say "this is highly unlikely")

(06-21-2017 09:49 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  In either case, two major players have said they don't anticipate their assets being redundant in the near future. Oil is here to stay until there is a major breakthrough in battery technology.

To HoD's point, why would Oil companies make any public statements that make stockholders and/or Wall St nervous? Of course they'll say that.

Electric cars, in all forms (regular hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all electric), as well as recharging infrastructure, are already gaining plenty of steam. Only a matter of time, now. And we're not going to be building oil-burning power plants ... so without much need for gasoline to power automotive technology, the market for oil considerably reduces.

(06-21-2017 09:58 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Rail is already nearly 100% electric and has been for some time.

No it isn't. Freight is diesel for sure, as is a lot of passenger rail.

(06-21-2017 10:06 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  Electric cars, in all forms (regular hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all electric), as well as recharging infrastructure, are already gaining plenty of steam. Only a matter of time, now. And we're not going to be building oil-burning power plants ... so without much need for gasoline to power automotive technology, the market for oil considerably reduces.

They may be gaining steam, but they aren't a meaningful part of the overall equation. They will have to be a technology that will replace, say, at least 25 - 50% of existing passenger vehicles before they have a real impact. That change over isn't just based on technology either. It will be impacted also by how often people buy new vehicles.

Much like VoIP technology it will take some time before alternatively fueled vehicles will become mainstream. I've watched VoIP technology developing for the last 20 years to where it is now and there are still plenty of businesses using legacy technology. Some day that will all fade away by necessity but that day isn't today. Developing countries are still largely dependent on legacy equipment and that's not likely to change any time in the near future. Do you think the average person in Ecuador or Peru or in some remote village in Africa will be driving electric cars within the next 10-20 years? Anything's possible but I don't think so. I think your vision for this, and the world in general is viewed through the prism of 1st world perspectives that don't apply across the board.

Im guessing at least some of this predictive model was based on the CAFE standards hitting 54 mpg by 2025. That wasn't going to happen. We are barely halfway there and would have to see fleet effiediency increase by nearly 50% in 8 years. That's never happened before (even when gas was $4 a gallon and there was tremendous demand for more efficient cars). With gas prices at low levels (and likely to remain so for the next decade or more), we aren't going to see massive increases in fleet efficiency without a major tech breakthrough that greatly increases battery capacity at a very low cost.

In short---investments in oil production won't be wasted due to Paris. It was already being wasted because massive investments in shale wells had raised worldwide oil production to levels far in excess of world demand. That condition is likely to linger on for a decade or two. Basically, the same thing happened in the early 80's.

(06-21-2017 10:26 AM)GeorgeBorkFan Wrote:  They may be gaining steam, but they aren't a meaningful part of the overall equation. They will have to be a technology that will replace, say, at least 25 - 50% of existing passenger vehicles before they have a real impact. That change over isn't just based on technology either. It will be impacted also by how often people buy new vehicles.

Of course ... but even 20 years from now ... I could easily see 25% of passenger automobiles being all electric, with perhaps just a backup ICE engine for long distance or in case of battery failure.

I'm not an expert, but I don't think 20 years is very long in terms of planning and building large capital projects for oil production ...

(06-21-2017 09:03 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-climat...9B3AR?il=0

Quote:Energy giants including Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) risk wasting more than a third of their budgets on projects that will not be needed if climate targets are to be met, a thinktank report shows.

More than $2 trillion of planned investment in oil and gas projects by 2025 could be redundant if governments stick to targets to lower carbon emissions to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, according to a report by the Carbon Tracker thinktank and institutional investors.

I've highlighted the flaw in this report.

I realize that the article I posted in the OP makes certain assumptions.


But I'd be happy if the discussion was broadened, as well. I don't think there's any doubt that at sometime in the mid-term future, oil will cease to be the most valuable fossil fuel commodity. I'm not judging that as good or bad, just saying I think that will be true.

(06-21-2017 10:06 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 09:49 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  In either case, two major players have said they don't anticipate their assets being redundant in the near future. Oil is here to stay until there is a major breakthrough in battery technology.

To HoD's point, why would Oil companies make any public statements that make stockholders and/or Wall St nervous? Of course they'll say that.

Electric cars, in all forms (regular hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all electric), as well as recharging infrastructure, are already gaining plenty of steam. Only a matter of time, now. And we're not going to be building oil-burning power plants ... so without much need for gasoline to power automotive technology, the market for oil considerably reduces.

Hate to break it to you, but the current forecast is for gasoline consumption to

increase in coming years. Then there is the diesel an fuel oil consumption, 2.9 million barrels per day in 2016, that isn't going away anytime soon do to a lack of any sort of feasible replacement. Now consider that fact that you are literally surrounded by petroleum based products as we speak. Any reduction in the market for oil will b negligible until there is a MAJOR battery breakthrough in the electric market or another power source is developed.

(06-21-2017 10:38 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Any reduction in the market for oil will b negligible until there is a MAJOR battery breakthrough in the electric market or another power source is developed.

Correction: any reduction in the market for oil will be negligible until a significant percentage of passenger vehicles are electric.

Your implication that this is impossible without yet to be developed battery technology, I think is wishful thinking.

(06-21-2017 10:42 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(06-21-2017 10:38 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Any reduction in the market for oil will b negligible until there is a MAJOR battery breakthrough in the electric market or another power source is developed.

Correction: any reduction in the market for oil will be negligible until a significant percentage of passenger vehicles are electric.

Your implication that this is impossible without yet to be developed battery technology, I think is wishful thinking.

The three major issues with electric vehicles are that range is limited, recharge times are long, and batteries are very expensive and must be replaced periodically. Those issues have to be resolved before there will be any sort of mass conversion to electric.

(06-21-2017 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The three major issues with electric vehicles are that range is limited, recharge times are long, and batteries are very expensive and must be replaced periodically. Those issues have to be resolved before there will be any sort of mass conversion to electric.

With a 100+ mile range, 100k mile guarantee on batteries, and full recharge at least overnight ... a big chunk of passenger vehicle miles (metro commutes) would be covered ...