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Rice players who we predict will get drafted
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Ranger Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-10-2017 07:47 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  Hard to believe the bonus money would be a major force in shaping the decision if that bonus is somewhere in low 6 figures.

The choice really becomes do you want to jump into minor league baseball or stay in school?

One of the things that bothers me a bit is that we have players who spend 4 years in the program but don't earn their degrees until later. If one isn't going to get a degree in four years, then I really don't see any reason to come back for a 4th year of college baseball. you might as well get paid to play if you are going to play.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think the best case for urging a player to come back for senior year would be

1. Your pro career is likely to be short and peak out at low level minors
2. If you have your degree in hand, you are well equipped to move rapidly to next chapter of your life

A case study for this might be Jeremy Rathjen. A fine student who likely would have been admitted to Rice straight up, Jeremy was a poor AA player at the age of 25. He is now a Wharton MBA student and a summer intern at Goldman Sachs at the age of 27 and has great opportunities ahead of him.

If Jeremy had left Rice without a diploma, he would not be where he is today.

One never knows. If my memory serves me well, Bobby Bramhall was drafted in the 18th round about ten years ago and was offered 50k. A solid reliever, I thought he would turn it down and possibly be a starting pitcher the next year. But he took the deal.

Given the excellent points you made about the extremely low odds of making the majors and the unattractive lifestyle, at least at the lower rungs of the minors, I have never been able to understand leaving early unless offered a lot of money.
06-10-2017 10:38 AM
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RiceBull Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
Maybe its more than just about the money. Baseball is fun. Ego. School is hard. Desk jobs are boring.
06-10-2017 11:45 AM
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texd Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-10-2017 07:47 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  Hard to believe the bonus money would be a major force in shaping the decision if that bonus is somewhere in low 6 figures.

The choice really becomes do you want to jump into minor league baseball or stay in school?

One of the things that bothers me a bit is that we have players who spend 4 years in the program but don't earn their degrees until later. If one isn't going to get a degree in four years, then I really don't see any reason to come back for a 4th year of college baseball. you might as well get paid to play if you are going to play.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think the best case for urging a player to come back for senior year would be

1. Your pro career is likely to be short and peak out at low level minors
2. If you have your degree in hand, you are well equipped to move rapidly to next chapter of your life

A case study for this might be Jeremy Rathjen. A fine student who likely would have been admitted to Rice straight up, Jeremy was a poor AA player at the age of 25. He is now a Wharton MBA student and a summer intern at Goldman Sachs at the age of 27 and has great opportunities ahead of him.

If Jeremy had left Rice without a diploma, he would not be where he is today.

If he'd graduated from Rice with a 2.19, he probably wouldn't be there either.

(No, I'm not saying that's what any baseball player's GPA is. I just happen to know people who did graduate that low.)

My point was that every kid should take their Junior Year draft pick, it was that the decision to stay at a good school and finish your degree there or move on is situational, and what's right for some folks isn't right for others.

e: And re-reading your post I guess you're kind of saying that too, at least with respect to players who won't graduate after their senior year. And I can tell you that if your performance at Rice earned you academic probation (especially twice), it can be very hard to graduate in 4 years.
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2017 12:32 PM by texd.)
06-10-2017 12:29 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
Speaking of the draft, Berkman checks in as the best player ever taken at the No. 16 slot, per ESPN.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/19553...-spot-1-30
(This post was last modified: 06-10-2017 04:32 PM by westsidewolf1989.)
06-10-2017 04:32 PM
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texd Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
That's an interesting exercise. And since it's purely WAR-based, you can see the slots where it would be "easiest" to make the list from in the future, specifically 21, 24, and 28 (all 2.03 and below).

The most difficult spots from which to get on the list are 6 (Barry Bonds at 7.38) and 25 (Mike Trout at 7.4).
06-10-2017 09:08 PM
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ETx Owl Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
I hate the draft, would have won back to back in 04 had they put it off two weeks.
06-11-2017 08:26 AM
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Rick Gerlach Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-11-2017 08:26 AM)ETx Owl Wrote:  I hate the draft, would have won back to back in 04 had they put it off two weeks.

Don't know

We lost Pendleton and Kohlkurst to injuries before and during the regional
06-11-2017 11:03 AM
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Ranger Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
Agreed. I think we could have survived with only one, but two injuries was too much.
06-11-2017 01:37 PM
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waltgreenberg Online
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Post: #39
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-11-2017 01:37 PM)Ranger Wrote:  Agreed. I think we could have survived with only one, but two injuries was too much.

That was a weak hitting team all season, and with Pendleton and Kohlkurst out, we were left with little more than Davis and Jaenisch in the lineup. Having said that, thanks to Ueckert's unexpected gem, we still were in a position to advance out of the losers bracket....and with our Big 4 and Degerman out of the pen, we would have been the favorites had we made it to the Supers.
06-11-2017 04:36 PM
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Ranger Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-11-2017 04:36 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(06-11-2017 01:37 PM)Ranger Wrote:  Agreed. I think we could have survived with only one, but two injuries was too much.

That was a weak hitting team all season, and with Pendleton and Kohlkurst out, we were left with little more than Davis and Jaenisch in the lineup. Having said that, thanks to Ueckert's unexpected gem, we still were in a position to advance out of the losers bracket....and with our Big 4 and Degerman out of the pen, we would have been the favorites had we made it to the Supers.

I have no doubt that we would have beaten LSU in the SR.
06-11-2017 05:12 PM
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