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Rice players who we predict will get drafted
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texd Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 02:50 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I think I had a similar experience with my freshman academic advisor. But my grade problems were more my fault than his. Maybe I should have listened to my high school guidance counselor, who said I couldn't make it at Rice.

I would agree with more my fault than his. But I still wonder why anyone would think that was sufficient guidance.

There needs to be someone that students trust (maybe from their life before Rice) who sits them down and says "You used to be smart. But now you're at Rice."
06-09-2017 03:09 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 03:09 PM)texd Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 02:50 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I think I had a similar experience with my freshman academic advisor. But my grade problems were more my fault than his. Maybe I should have listened to my high school guidance counselor, who said I couldn't make it at Rice.

I would agree with more my fault than his. But I still wonder why anyone would think that was sufficient guidance.

There needs to be someone that students trust (maybe from their life before Rice) who sits them down and says "You used to be smart. But now you're at Rice."

Exactly. The Thresher did a piece on the incoming class, and my scores were exactly 50th percentile. I was average.

I don't know what the system was when you were a freshman. My advisor was a sophomore, who helped me enroll for the first semester. Never had another advisor, unless you count my College Master, who advised me to go home and wait for my draft notice.

I guess the reason I have a Rice degree on my wall is just stubbornness.
06-09-2017 03:29 PM
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texd Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 03:29 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Exactly. The Thresher did a piece on the incoming class, and my scores were exactly 50th percentile. I was average.

I don't know what the system was when you were a freshman. My advisor was a sophomore, who helped me enroll for the first semester. Never had another advisor, unless you count my College Master, who advised me to go home and wait for my draft notice.

I guess the reason I have a Rice degree on my wall is just stubbornness.

My advisor was a Brown associate who was also an S/E prof. He said that, signed my triplicate form, and I was off to the registrar to stand in line. In fairness to him, my schedule probably would have been easy for him as a freshman.
06-09-2017 03:33 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 03:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Bigs, it's not his offense, but his defense that will cause a slip in the draft. I've heard from several scouts that he doesn't have the range of a MLB middle infielder, and I'm not sure he provides the pop for LF or 1B.

Not many people do! I have no idea how his defense rates, especially his range. If he is athletic enough to play LF, RF, 3B, or 1B, then it will really just depend on his bat. If everything goes right for him, maybe he could evolve into someone like Kyle Seager, who was drafted in the 3rd round out of UNC?

I looked at Baseball America. He missed their Top 500 and was listed #52 in the state of Texas (the top 44 in Texas all made the Top 500). Extrapolating, that likely puts Gray in the top 500-600 draft prospects. That is comfortably outside the top 10 rounds, so you are probably right. Perhaps I was reading too much into his late-season surge. I guess my big surprise is that Myers is regarded as being so much higher than Gray.
06-09-2017 03:52 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 03:52 PM)mrbig Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 03:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Bigs, it's not his offense, but his defense that will cause a slip in the draft. I've heard from several scouts that he doesn't have the range of a MLB middle infielder, and I'm not sure he provides the pop for LF or 1B.

Not many people do! I have no idea how his defense rates, especially his range. If he is athletic enough to play LF, RF, 3B, or 1B, then it will really just depend on his bat. If everything goes right for him, maybe he could evolve into someone like Kyle Seager, who was drafted in the 3rd round out of UNC?

I looked at Baseball America. He missed their Top 500 and was listed #52 in the state of Texas (the top 44 in Texas all made the Top 500). Extrapolating, that likely puts Gray in the top 500-600 draft prospects. That is comfortably outside the top 10 rounds, so you are probably right. Perhaps I was reading too much into his late-season surge. I guess my big surprise is that Myers is regarded as being so much higher than Gray.

Dane is a gold glove 3B or 1B. This year's stats aside, I think Tristan is a better hitter with higher upside, but Dane did show marked improvement this year at the plate...and is a far better baserunner. He's still a sucker for anything but a fastball and, IMO, that's going to keep him out of the Top 7 - 8 rounds, and may cause him to slip to the 10th round.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2017 04:35 PM by waltgreenberg.)
06-09-2017 04:34 PM
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RiceFootball2K5 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 04:34 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 03:52 PM)mrbig Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 03:03 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Bigs, it's not his offense, but his defense that will cause a slip in the draft. I've heard from several scouts that he doesn't have the range of a MLB middle infielder, and I'm not sure he provides the pop for LF or 1B.

Not many people do! I have no idea how his defense rates, especially his range. If he is athletic enough to play LF, RF, 3B, or 1B, then it will really just depend on his bat. If everything goes right for him, maybe he could evolve into someone like Kyle Seager, who was drafted in the 3rd round out of UNC?

I looked at Baseball America. He missed their Top 500 and was listed #52 in the state of Texas (the top 44 in Texas all made the Top 500). Extrapolating, that likely puts Gray in the top 500-600 draft prospects. That is comfortably outside the top 10 rounds, so you are probably right. Perhaps I was reading too much into his late-season surge. I guess my big surprise is that Myers is regarded as being so much higher than Gray.

Dane is a gold glove 3B or 1B. This year's stats aside, I think Tristan is a better hitter with higher upside, but Dane did show marked improvement this year at the plate...and is a far better baserunner. He's still a sucker for anything but a fastball and, IMO, that's going to keep him out of the Top 7 - 8 rounds, and may cause him to slip to the 10th round.

The way the draft works now with the team bonus pools, a lot of teams use their picks in rounds 6-10 on seniors or other guys that they know will sign under slot. That way they can use the money they save on higher picks they will need to go over slot with (since the pools are cumulative for rounds 1-10). For example, a player drafted in the 8th round might get offered $50k to sign in order to save money for higher picks, take it or leave it. A Round 11 guy can negotiate all the way up to $100k, and occasionally over.

Round 10 and beyond, the pool is no longer applicable unless a bonus goes over $100k. So, often times it's actually better to get drafted in rounds 11-15 than rounds 6-10.

So just because Myers and/or Gray and/or whoever else make it through Round 10 does not mean they are coming back. They can still get nice bonuses in later rounds.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2017 04:56 PM by RiceFootball2K5.)
06-09-2017 04:54 PM
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Ranger Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
When will we know who has signed? Isn't the deadline in early August?
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2017 07:22 PM by Ranger.)
06-09-2017 07:22 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 07:22 PM)Ranger Wrote:  When will we know who has signed? Isn't the deadline in early August?

I thought it was moved up to mid-July.
06-09-2017 07:24 PM
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WRCisforgotten79 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
(06-09-2017 07:24 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(06-09-2017 07:22 PM)Ranger Wrote:  When will we know who has signed? Isn't the deadline in early August?

I thought it was moved up to mid-July.

Friday, July 14 this year.
06-09-2017 07:50 PM
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MemOwl Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Rice players who we predict will get drafted
Hard to believe the bonus money would be a major force in shaping the decision if that bonus is somewhere in low 6 figures.

The choice really becomes do you want to jump into minor league baseball or stay in school?

One of the things that bothers me a bit is that we have players who spend 4 years in the program but don't earn their degrees until later. If one isn't going to get a degree in four years, then I really don't see any reason to come back for a 4th year of college baseball. you might as well get paid to play if you are going to play.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I think the best case for urging a player to come back for senior year would be

1. Your pro career is likely to be short and peak out at low level minors
2. If you have your degree in hand, you are well equipped to move rapidly to next chapter of your life

A case study for this might be Jeremy Rathjen. A fine student who likely would have been admitted to Rice straight up, Jeremy was a poor AA player at the age of 25. He is now a Wharton MBA student and a summer intern at Goldman Sachs at the age of 27 and has great opportunities ahead of him.

If Jeremy had left Rice without a diploma, he would not be where he is today.
06-10-2017 07:47 AM
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