http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2017/JUN...une05.html

APP - 10 wins
TROY - 9 wins
ARKST - 8 wins

Seems reasonable to me. For Troy, that's losses to Boise State, LSU, and one possible SBC team. They have AKRON at 6 wins so it wouldn't be them and we're not losing to Alabama State even if we played the game 10,000 times. APP has the easiest schedule in the country with Wake, Savannah State, and UMASS, with Georgia being the only giant on the schedule. I'm thinking a loss at Georgia (though not at all written in stone) and either Georgia Southern or a letdown vs an inferior SBC opponent. ARKST will probably lose one SBC game (end of the year looks ripe for the picking), and three OOC losses for the red wolves is par for the course.

I keep running down our schedule game by game and have a hard time finding 7 losses. That's going to require 5 losses between conference, New Hampshire, and UMass.

It's hard for any outsider to really comprehend just how abysmal our offensive coaching was last year.

Also, I see Ark State losing no more than 1 conference game and beating the slop out of SMU so taking the over for them looks good.

Just in case any other fans wanted to know your SB numbers:

GAST - 6 wins under
CCU - 5.5 wins under
GS - 5 wins push
Louisiana - 5 wins over
Idaho - 4.5 wins over
USA - 4 wins push
ULM - 3.5 wins over
NMSU - 3.5 wins under
TXST - 2.5 wins over

FWIW, I see ARKST listed at 7.5 over, Troy at 8.5 over, and APP at 9.5 under. I guess OP was rounding.

Which way do yall bet, just to add a little fuel to the thread topic?
mine in italics

(06-06-2017 06:47 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I keep running down our schedule game by game and have a hard time finding 7 losses. That's going to require 5 losses between conference, New Hampshire, and UMass.

It's hard for any outsider to really comprehend just how abysmal our offensive coaching was last year.

Also, I see Ark State losing no more than 1 conference game and beating the slop out of SMU so taking the over for them looks good.

I could see us going 5-7 as our worst case scenario. It would take injuries at key positions to make that happen.

Worst case: 5-7 with our only wins against UNH, NMSU, UMASS, and two of USA, GAST, and CCU

Best case: 8-4 with our only losses against Auburn, Indiana, App, and Troy

It's all about keeping our players healthy since we don't have a lot of depth built up in this new roster.

For TXST I really don't see any win other than HBU, so I'd bet under.

(06-06-2017 01:09 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2017/JUN...une05.html

APP - 10 wins
TROY - 9 wins
ARKST - 8 wins

Why did you round? Half a win can make a huge difference in which way to bet.

(06-06-2017 07:37 AM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  For TXST I really don't see any win other than HBU, so I'd bet under.

For the second year in a row, we're likely to be the worst FBS program in the country. How pathetic is that?

I'm pleasantly surprised that our over/under is set that high. A little shocked.

5.5 somebody must know something about our QB that no one else does

In order of confidence:

Troy - 8.5 over
Arkansas State - 7.5 over
Idaho - 4.5 over
New Mexico State - 3.5 under
Georgia Southern - 5 over
Coastal Carolina - 5.5 under
App State - 9.5 over
Louisiana - 5 under
Georgia State - 6 push
South Alabama - 4 over
ULM - 3.5 over
Texas State - 2.5 over

App State - 9.5 under
Troy - 8.5 over
Arkansas State - 7.5 under
Georgia State - 6 under
Coastal Carolina - 5.5 under
Georgia Southern - 5 over
Louisiana - 5 push
Idaho - 4.5 over
South Alabama - 4 push
ULM - 3.5 over
New Mexico State - 3.5 under
Texas State - 2.5 under

I'd lay off most of these, but I'd definitely take the over on Idaho, probably the under on ULL, and I'll be tempted to bet the over on USA.

If South only has 4 wins next season, I'm hoping we are announcing John Grass as our new head coach soon after the Jax St season comes to an end.

Just FYI, these lines aren't to disrespect your program or anything like that. It's to attract wagers on each side so regardless of who wins, Vegas wins.

Without looking at who everyone's playing my gut feelings on this are:

App State - 9.5 under
Troy - 8.5 over
Arkansas State - 7.5 over
Georgia State - 6 under
Coastal Carolina - 5.5 under
Georgia Southern - 5 over (it had better be over)
Louisiana - 5 push
Idaho - 4.5 over
South Alabama - 4 push
ULM - 3.5 over
New Mexico State - 3.5 under
Texas State - 2.5 over

(06-06-2017 08:31 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  

(06-06-2017 07:37 AM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  For TXST I really don't see any win other than HBU, so I'd bet under.

For the second year in a row, we're likely to be the worst FBS program in the country. How pathetic is that?

I'd bet under too. First time in a while I am not buying season tickets. I will probably make the UTSA game and Colorado.

(06-06-2017 07:23 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  

(06-06-2017 06:47 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I keep running down our schedule game by game and have a hard time finding 7 losses. That's going to require 5 losses between conference, New Hampshire, and UMass.

It's hard for any outsider to really comprehend just how abysmal our offensive coaching was last year.

Also, I see Ark State losing no more than 1 conference game and beating the slop out of SMU so taking the over for them looks good.

I could see us going 5-7 as our worst case scenario. It would take injuries at key positions to make that happen.

Worst case: 5-7 with our only wins against UNH, NMSU, UMASS, and two of USA, GAST, and CCU

Best case: 8-4 with our only losses against Auburn, Indiana, App, and Troy

It's all about keeping our players healthy since we don't have a lot of depth built up in this new roster.

So you still beat us in your worse case...

(06-07-2017 11:39 AM)panama Wrote:  

(06-06-2017 07:23 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  

(06-06-2017 06:47 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I keep running down our schedule game by game and have a hard time finding 7 losses. That's going to require 5 losses between conference, New Hampshire, and UMass.

It's hard for any outsider to really comprehend just how abysmal our offensive coaching was last year.

Also, I see Ark State losing no more than 1 conference game and beating the slop out of SMU so taking the over for them looks good.

I could see us going 5-7 as our worst case scenario. It would take injuries at key positions to make that happen.

Worst case: 5-7 with our only wins against UNH, NMSU, UMASS, and two of USA, GAST, and CCU

Best case: 8-4 with our only losses against Auburn, Indiana, App, and Troy

It's all about keeping our players healthy since we don't have a lot of depth built up in this new roster.

So you still beat us in your worse case...

A 2 out of 3 chance yeah

(06-07-2017 11:03 AM)slycat Wrote:  

(06-06-2017 08:31 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  

(06-06-2017 07:37 AM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  For TXST I really don't see any win other than HBU, so I'd bet under.

For the second year in a row, we're likely to be the worst FBS program in the country. How pathetic is that?

I'd bet under too. First time in a while I am not buying season tickets. I will probably make the UTSA game and Colorado.

I don't need to buy season tickets since I get free tickets, but if I did I'd consider not renewing if we don't win at 4 games and have some competitive losses this year.

(06-07-2017 12:41 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  

(06-07-2017 11:39 AM)panama Wrote:  

(06-06-2017 07:23 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  

(06-06-2017 06:47 AM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I keep running down our schedule game by game and have a hard time finding 7 losses. That's going to require 5 losses between conference, New Hampshire, and UMass.

It's hard for any outsider to really comprehend just how abysmal our offensive coaching was last year.

Also, I see Ark State losing no more than 1 conference game and beating the slop out of SMU so taking the over for them looks good.

I could see us going 5-7 as our worst case scenario. It would take injuries at key positions to make that happen.

Worst case: 5-7 with our only wins against UNH, NMSU, UMASS, and two of USA, GAST, and CCU

Best case: 8-4 with our only losses against Auburn, Indiana, App, and Troy

It's all about keeping our players healthy since we don't have a lot of depth built up in this new roster.

So you still beat us in your worse case...

A 2 out of 3 chance yeah

Recent history says 1 out 3...