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Quote:Don’t rush to judgment on trades, just look at the Reds
Ken Rosenthal @ken_rosenthal
Jun 1, 2017 at 12:03p ET

As the trade season nears, it’s worth noting that deals only can be judged over time.

Case in point: The Cincinnati Reds.

Few in the industry applauded Walt Jocketty for a series of trades he made toward the end of his tenure as general manager. A number of those moves, however, now look quite good.

I’m not about to oversell a team that is a distant last in the majors with a 5.95 rotation ERA, albeit with four starters on the disabled list. Nor will I oversell Jocketty, who, like any executive had his clunkers, particularly with his failure to maximize the value of closer Aroldis Chapman.

The Reds should have traded Chapman at the 2015 non-waiver deadline. They then panicked after learning of Chapman’s domestic-violence incident that off-season, accepting a discounted return from the Yankees when they could have gotten far more — as the Yankees did from the Cubs — at the ’16 deadline.

In the bigger picture, though, Jocketty fared quite well with his trades of third baseman Todd Frazier and right-handers Alfredo Simon, Mike Leake and Mat Latos, and still might come out fine with his return for righty Johnny Cueto, too.

The Reds lead the majors in position-player WAR, according to Fangraphs, in part due to a number of players that Jocketty acquired — third baseman Eugenio Suarez (Simon trade); right fielder Scott Schebler (Frazier) and left fielder Adam DuVall (Leake).

The three-team Frazier trade, in particular, bears revisiting.

On Dec. 16, 2015, the Reds sent Frazier to the White Sox and received Schebler and infielders Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon from the Dodgers, who in turn acquired outfielder Trayce Thompson, infielder Micah Johnson and right-hander Frankie Montas from the White Sox.

I tweeted that day:

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Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Immediate question: Why didn’t #Reds take #WhiteSox’s package instead of #Dodgers’? Rival execs think LAD did much better than CIN.
1:01 PM - 16 Dec 2015

I hardly was alone in such commentary, as this series of tweets demonstrates. But the Reds’ return, thanks largely to Schebler, now looks like it will exceed the Dodgers’.

Thompson showed early promise, but currently is struggling at Triple-A after missing the second half of last season with a back injury. He is the only player from the deal still with the Dodgers – Montas went to the Athletics in a deadline trade for left-hander Rich Hill and outfielder Josh Reddick last summer, Johnson to the Braves for future considerations in January.

Schebler, meanwhile, is sitting on 16 homers and an .876 OPS. Peraza is the Reds’ everyday second baseman at 23 and starting to show progress offensively. Dixon is at Triple A, and could wind up a utility man in the majors.

Not bad, eh?

Jocketty’s other scores include the acquisitions of Suarez and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani on the same day — Dec. 11, 2014 — in separate deals for Simon and Latos, both of whom were potential free agents. (Jocketty said the Reds definitely wanted to trade Latos but not necessarily Simon, and jumped only when the Tigers agreed to part with Suarez).

Suarez moved from shortstop to third last season, improving his footwork and positioning with the help of Reds coaches Freddie Benavides and Jim Riggleman. Duvall was playing first and third at Triple A with the Giants in 2015; the Reds, after acquiring him, moved him to left field.

The Cueto trade, which brought the Reds left-handers Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb and Cody Reed, has not worked out as well. But Finnegan might return to the top of the Reds’ rotation once he recovers from a strained shoulder, and Reed — a “mystery” to this point in Jocketty’s estimation — is starting again at Triple A (the Reds traded Lamb to the Rays for cash in November after he underwent surgery to repair lumbar disc herniation; he will be out all of 2017).

Jocketty, who became an executive advisor with the Reds in December with Dick Williams taking over as GM, said that in 22 years as a lead executive he learned the value of patience and persistence. He credits a variety of scouts and assistants when discussing his trades — Marty Maier and Mike Squires liked Suarez, J Harrison was high on Duvall, Jeff Schugel pushed Schebler and Bruce Manno — the Braves’ former assistant GM — recommended Peraza.

The Chapman deal still could yield a benefit, if righty Rookie Davis develops into a back-end starter. So could the Jay Bruce trade, but to this point second baseman Dilson Herrera isn’t hitting at Triple A.

The lesson applies every July: Don’t judge trades so quickly. Things change over time.