The unofficial online home for fans of the Western Michigan University Broncos. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(07-03-2017 08:01 AM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  

(07-03-2017 07:24 AM)Dirty Ernie Wrote:  The old saying, I've been rich and I've been poor, and I'd rather be rich.

In terms of WMU, it is good the destination is worth consideration. We are glad strong players want to come here, be on a good team, have success, be a Bronco.

I could care less about the theory some recruiting coach is able to hypnotize a recruit and draw them in by using some kind of magic.

I like the idea we say come here, get a good education, play some good ball, have success with that and be a Bronco. It's about watching and playing good football at Waldo and other cool venues, not about getting a strong number rating on the recruiting sites. Watching recruiting sites is fun, but it is not the point of the process.

If we can assemble some of the less-sociopathic Bronco Stampeders together at a sports bar for the USC game, I hope you're there!

Then can we get a group of the "more sociopathic Bronco stampeders" together too, so I can participate?

(07-03-2017 01:06 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  Owens, Ely, Woodside, etc... they've had good enough QB's to win the MAC. It takes more than a QB... unless you're NIU (see Harnish and Lynch).

That illustrates my point. They've had good QBs. Not the best, but good. And good wasn't good enough. Put Harnish, Lynch, Johnson or Terrell on one of those teams and they'd have a champion. This year woodside should be the best( Ragland?)and finally get them that championship.

To broncopilot's point, yes, one could argue for woodside last year as the top QB. Though head to head he threw 2 int's to Terrell's 0. Woodside had bigger numbers, but I though Terrell was supremely efficient and played amazing last year.

It's really no different than the NFL. The Patriots have no more talent than any other team. Hell, if you want off of the Pats, just make a pro bowl near contract time and they'll trade you so as to not have to pay you. Next no-name up. It's about Brady and Belichick. It's a little disheartening that football is soooo QB driven, but it is what it is these days.

There will be years with no big time qbs. That may lend to a more team based championship season.

What I'm saying is that a huge part of what allowed Terrell to be so efficient was his great protection, lethal run game and top 5 draft pick at WR. He was great, no doubt. But its far from all about the QB.

Lester says it is somewhat about mathematics. I'm a bit of an egghead, so to me that is really, really cool.

(07-03-2017 04:32 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  What I'm saying is that a huge part of what allowed Terrell to be so efficient was his great protection, lethal run game and top 5 draft pick at WR. He was great, no doubt. But its far from all about the QB.

The team around the QB is important. Yet Graham and Maddie had all that Terrell had around them as complements. Protection - Least sacks allowed in all FBS - NIU with 8. Run game - best yds/game rushing attack in MAC - NIU 239. 2nd best wr in MAC - Kenny Golladay. Yet Graham/Maddie still had a combined passer rating 60 pts lower than Terrell. Maybe it means Graham/Maddie suck. But Graham did beat the Broncos in 2015, even with those 2 top recruiting classes and Davis.

It's impossible to isolate a singular reason for success in sports. But QB is pretty darn close to one. Maybe this may show it better; of the last 10 MAC Championship games, 7 have had the #1 rated passer involved. Of the 3 that didn't, the #2 passer was involved. only the '14 Drew Hare Huskies had a passer rated lower than 2(he was 5) involved in that game( which is kinda funny with Hoekjeness implying NIU only needed Harnish and Lynch to win.)

(07-03-2017 04:32 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  What I'm saying is that a huge part of what allowed Terrell to be so efficient was his great protection, lethal run game and top 5 draft pick at WR. He was great, no doubt. But its far from all about the QB.

Terrell was IMO a game manager. Did what he needed to do to win games.

(07-02-2017 09:28 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 06:48 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 01:50 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 12:09 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  Guys, stop.

Recruiting doesn't matter.

Recruiting matters. Recruiting services don't.

Yup total coincidence we went 13-0 and trip to the cotton bowl after three straight years at consensus #1 ranking.

Must have been the scheduling.

2015 BG Mac champs built on class rank of 7,2,4,3
2014 NIU Mac champs built on class ranks 3,9,5,8
2013 BG Mac champs built on class rank of 4,3,3,8
2012 NIU Mac champs built on class ranks 5,8,9,11

During that span Toledo had class ranks of 1,3,2,1,1,1,2

BG and NIU teams had best QB in the conference in those seasons. Toledo never found a top QB in that span. The talent levels at the top of the mac are all the same. You had the best QB in the conference in 2016. The best QB in the conference will also win the mac in 2017.... so you better hope you have him.

EMU has the best QB in the conference for 2017 season. I hope it gets us to 7 wins.

Terrell had great courage to stay in the pocket very late, and still make an accurate pass when D-Linemen we're so close he could smell their breath. He also had enough smarts and athleticism to run when either opportunity arose or pocket collapsed. Those things made Terrell special.

(07-04-2017 05:35 AM)Luckeyone Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 09:28 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 06:48 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 01:50 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 12:09 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  Guys, stop.

Recruiting doesn't matter.

Recruiting matters. Recruiting services don't.

Yup total coincidence we went 13-0 and trip to the cotton bowl after three straight years at consensus #1 ranking.

Must have been the scheduling.

2015 BG Mac champs built on class rank of 7,2,4,3
2014 NIU Mac champs built on class ranks 3,9,5,8
2013 BG Mac champs built on class rank of 4,3,3,8
2012 NIU Mac champs built on class ranks 5,8,9,11

During that span Toledo had class ranks of 1,3,2,1,1,1,2

BG and NIU teams had best QB in the conference in those seasons. Toledo never found a top QB in that span. The talent levels at the top of the mac are all the same. You had the best QB in the conference in 2016. The best QB in the conference will also win the mac in 2017.... so you better hope you have him.

EMU has the best QB in the conference for 2017 season. I hope it gets us to 7 wins.

Well, that settles it.

EMU: 2017 MAC Champs

(07-04-2017 05:35 AM)Luckeyone Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 09:28 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 06:48 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 01:50 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 12:09 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  Guys, stop.

Recruiting doesn't matter.

Recruiting matters. Recruiting services don't.

Yup total coincidence we went 13-0 and trip to the cotton bowl after three straight years at consensus #1 ranking.

Must have been the scheduling.

2015 BG Mac champs built on class rank of 7,2,4,3
2014 NIU Mac champs built on class ranks 3,9,5,8
2013 BG Mac champs built on class rank of 4,3,3,8
2012 NIU Mac champs built on class ranks 5,8,9,11

During that span Toledo had class ranks of 1,3,2,1,1,1,2

BG and NIU teams had best QB in the conference in those seasons. Toledo never found a top QB in that span. The talent levels at the top of the mac are all the same. You had the best QB in the conference in 2016. The best QB in the conference will also win the mac in 2017.... so you better hope you have him.

EMU has the best QB in the conference for 2017 season. I hope it gets us to 7 wins.

EMU has the 4th best QB(putting Shane Morris in there because his recruit ranking is so high he has to be better) and 4 yr recruit classes of 10,10,8,10. That is why 7 wins is the ceiling. Yet, having a really good QB got you victories over 4 MAC teams with 4 yr recruiting ranks of 5,5,6,6. 3 of your MAC 4 losses were to better qbs(Terrell, Woodside, Ragland). Amazing how good QB play supercedes recruit class ranks like that.

(07-04-2017 10:36 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-04-2017 05:35 AM)Luckeyone Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 09:28 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 06:48 PM)Hoekjeness Wrote:  

(07-02-2017 01:50 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  Recruiting matters. Recruiting services don't.

Yup total coincidence we went 13-0 and trip to the cotton bowl after three straight years at consensus #1 ranking.

Must have been the scheduling.

2015 BG Mac champs built on class rank of 7,2,4,3
2014 NIU Mac champs built on class ranks 3,9,5,8
2013 BG Mac champs built on class rank of 4,3,3,8
2012 NIU Mac champs built on class ranks 5,8,9,11

During that span Toledo had class ranks of 1,3,2,1,1,1,2

BG and NIU teams had best QB in the conference in those seasons. Toledo never found a top QB in that span. The talent levels at the top of the mac are all the same. You had the best QB in the conference in 2016. The best QB in the conference will also win the mac in 2017.... so you better hope you have him.

EMU has the best QB in the conference for 2017 season. I hope it gets us to 7 wins.

EMU has the 4th best QB(putting Shane Morris in there because his recruit ranking is so high he has to be better) and 4 yr recruit classes of 10,10,8,10. That is why 7 wins is the ceiling. Yet, having a really good QB got you victories over 4 MAC teams with 4 yr recruiting ranks of 5,5,6,6. 3 of your MAC 4 losses were to better qbs(Terrell, Woodside, Ragland). Amazing how good QB play supercedes recruit class ranks like that.

Physically, Roback is the top QB in the MAC. Woodside and Ragland have better supporting cast although I believe the gap is closing just a tad.

Regarding Shane Morris, if he was not a star in the B10, then he won't be a star in the MAC.

Phil Steele has a sort of regression metric he calls the stock market or something. Very bearish on WMU and EMU since we had such great seasons last year.

I think it relates to this thread because both teams had great seasons last year based on a few years of good recruiting and development. Why be bearish?

(07-04-2017 06:44 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  Phil Steele has a sort of regression metric he calls the stock market or something. Very bearish on WMU and EMU since we had such great seasons last year.

I think it relates to this thread because both teams had great seasons last year based on a few years of good recruiting and development. Why be bearish?

Well I think that is explained by his ranking of our coaching staff. Which none of us really knows how good they are.

The good recruiting has continued. Will they be able to teach their concepts in a way that the guys can execute them successfully? We shall see. We are going to learn a lot before we even get to the conference schedule.

(07-03-2017 06:50 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(07-03-2017 04:32 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  What I'm saying is that a huge part of what allowed Terrell to be so efficient was his great protection, lethal run game and top 5 draft pick at WR. He was great, no doubt. But its far from all about the QB.

The team around the QB is important. Yet Graham and Maddie had all that Terrell had around them as complements. Protection - Least sacks allowed in all FBS - NIU with 8. Run game - best yds/game rushing attack in MAC - NIU 239. 2nd best wr in MAC - Kenny Golladay. Yet Graham/Maddie still had a combined passer rating 60 pts lower than Terrell. Maybe it means Graham/Maddie suck. But Graham did beat the Broncos in 2015, even with those 2 top recruiting classes and Davis.

It's impossible to isolate a singular reason for success in sports. But QB is pretty darn close to one. Maybe this may show it better; of the last 10 MAC Championship games, 7 have had the #1 rated passer involved. Of the 3 that didn't, the #2 passer was involved. only the '14 Drew Hare Huskies had a passer rated lower than 2(he was 5) involved in that game( which is kinda funny with Hoekjeness implying NIU only needed Harnish and Lynch to win.)

+1. NIU had pretty good teams in the early 2000s when Michael Turner and then Wolfe were here. Very good running game, decent-to-very-good defense, but never won a MACC because we never had that really good QB. We'd get beat by teams with someone like Gradkowski, Josh Harris, and later on Lefevour. We won when we had Harnish and Lynch. The one MACC with Hare was a year when Toledo and BG both had backup QBs playing us so we caught a break there.

And then of course BG won twice with Matt Johnson - and with mostly the same team, lost when he didn't play.

Pretty much the NFL theory and reality...QB is the key, however, recruiting one or drafting one is very hard. You never know how they will do at the next level until they are faced with it. #ryanleaf #manyothers

(07-04-2017 06:44 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  Phil Steele has a sort of regression metric he calls the stock market or something. Very bearish on WMU and EMU since we had such great seasons last year.

I think it relates to this thread because both teams had great seasons last year based on a few years of good recruiting and development. Why be bearish?

That is easy to understand, esp. for WMU (and Clemson, too ).

When a team goes 13 - 1 the next move is probably a 'regression toward the mean' to use that hackneyed expression even if someone didn't know the Bronco graduation losses and the difficulty of the 2017 schedule.

I don't know how Phil does his analysis. If it were me, I'd look at roster changes and see if 2016 was 'catch the lightning in the bottle year' with a senior laden team lead by a good QB and also the schedule differences between 2016 and 17.

(07-09-2017 05:52 AM)emu steve Wrote:  

(07-04-2017 06:44 PM)Hiller4Hyz09 Wrote:  Phil Steele has a sort of regression metric he calls the stock market or something. Very bearish on WMU and EMU since we had such great seasons last year.

I think it relates to this thread because both teams had great seasons last year based on a few years of good recruiting and development. Why be bearish?

That is easy to understand, esp. for WMU (and Clemson, too ).

When a team goes 13 - 1 the next move is probably a 'regression toward the mean' to use that hackneyed expression even if someone didn't know the Bronco graduation losses and the difficulty of the 2017 schedule.

I don't know how Phil does his analysis. If it were me, I'd look at roster changes and see if 2016 was 'catch the lightning in the bottle year' with a senior laden team lead by a good QB and also the schedule differences between 2016 and 17.

I go way out on the limb and say yah to that.

Last year was indeed lightning in a bottle, tempered by 4 years of relentless concentrated effort, rowing through every frickin' storm that came along. The final year was a gutty, painful but glorious payoff. This was a year that is a one in a million, way, way way to the outlier end.

So yeah, revert to the mean? Of course. Obviously. A year like last year won't happen again in a hundred years. Stories will be told, books will be written, theories will be proposed. The Fleck years, melded with mighty conflagration from Broncdom, are a story for all time. So revert to mean is very high probability.

But I'm here to tell you, there is more to this story yet to come. Next year is going to be super cool. You heard it here first!