(05-17-2017 11:23 AM)msm96wolf Wrote: Interesting, from hearing this, I think the AAC will hold more power if there are other bidders, If I were ESPN, I offer a MAC Type offer for long term low ball offer from 3-4 million. Otherwise, I let the AAC got out and see if Fox, NBC or CBS has interest. Appears it will be a poker game probably decided by other networks raise the bidding price which makes the AAC the winner or if they don't, ESPN wins and comes back with same or lower offer since the AAC needs a network. In addition, along with those other conferences, the bowl renegotations will be probably be going on as well. 2018/19 will be a fun years to watch because I have no idea who will win this one.
I dont think 3-4 million is going to get an early deal done. The AAC already knows they can sub out games to CBS-Sports. NBC still has no FBS presence beyond Notre Dame. The AAC package has posted 32 games of over a million viewers in 3 years. Thats near P5 performance. If you can get that kind of eyeballs at even half the price of P5 confernece---thats a screaming deal for any network.
Oh---and lets not forget---whoever picks up the AAC gets half the Army-Navy games for the duration of the next deal. That something that would really perk up the ears of NBC. Heck---lets be honest---FOX and CBS are going to be very interested in an event like the Army-Navy game as well.
So, ESPN is sitting there with 50% of their current Big10 content about to vanish in 2017 (taken by FOX) and ESPN wont be able to get it back for 6 years (at the earliest---assuming they can outbid FOX for it). Plus, they might lose a bit more ACC inventory in the coming ACC Network launch.
However, ESPN is currently owns the rights to an easy plug and play solution for most of those empty Big10 slots (and possible empty ACC slots). The AAC is a proven performer at an economical price. Are they really going to risk losing their economically priced Big10 replacement inventory with a low ball offer? It was one thing to low ball the AAC when you didnt really need the content---it's another thing completely to do so when you do need the content.
Worst case for the AAC. If ESPN low balls, the AAC chops and dices its TV package selling off the pieces to the highest bidder. Under that system, ESPN might win enough content to fill thier holes---they might not. They certainly DO NOT get the Army-Navy game with the low bid strategy.
So, I actually dont think the "early renewal with a moderate raise" strategy is going to work for ESPN. I think its just the opposite. I think ESPN has to give the AAC an early bid that's high enough that there is real concern within the AAC that the open market might not pay as much as the solid early renewal on the table. Otherwise, at 3-4 million---there's almost no chance they get less than that on the open market. There just isn't much incentive to jump on that early offer.
Honestly---I think thats exactly what will happen. I don't think the AAC gets to the open market. I think ESPN will make lay a very significant raise on the table (6-8 million a team Im guessing). They have to give the AAC something to lose. You used the MAC as your example. That actually illustrates my point. The MAC deal was signed 3 years early and it increased the MAC payout TEN FOLD. How could the MAC not sign that? lol---They HAD to sign that. They had no choice. Not only were they getting money early---they also had to feel like there was little chance of beating that even if they hit the open market.
I dont think we will get 10X more---but 3 to 5 times more is very possible. On more point, the realignment fund (made from exit fees and left behind NCAA credits) is paying most AAC members enough extra cash that its as if the AAC schools are getting a media payout of between 6 and 10 millon a year (less for newer schools--more for ex-Big East members). That realignment fund money is running out.
So, a 3-4 million media deal would actually mean a 2-7 million dollar cut in revenue for AAC schools. I'm not sure it makes sense to continue as the AAC. So, there is almost no chance a 3-4 million offer would be accepted when the conference could look to see if better alternatives were available from other networks in 2019.
