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What Conference will Liberty end up in.
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #21
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
(05-14-2017 11:58 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-13-2017 11:05 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  1) I don't think you'll see any new FBS conferences organized because that would only dilute the pot of money from the CFP that the g5 conferences already split. Every new conference would split that already smallish pot another way. So, while CUSA and the SBC could re-organize amongst themselves, I don't look for CUSA to subdivide into two where there is only one right now.

2) CUSA is already in dire financial straights. They are on the verge of losing their conference media deal. So, unless Liberty somehow bolsters that sagging deal, Liberty won't get added and Liberty probably should examine their options carefully if they are invited. Jumping into a sinking conference likely isn't a great idea.

3) The Sunbelt is the obvious option, but may not have room or the inclination to add Liberty.

I'm guessing that Liberty remains independent in FB until the situation clears up.

Agree. Also, there is another factor, other than big stacks of money, than makes Liberty uniquely suited to survive and even thrive as an independent. Liberty (like BYU), has their own national TV network.

That TV network is a mirage. No one watches it. Quick....where is Liberty TV on your cable lineup? Don't know? That's what I thought 99% of you would say.

All of our games are on ESPN3, at a minimum. Half of the Belt games are televised on higher level formats. Liberty TV isn't going to be paying anything significant for the carriage rights either.

No one watches BYU TV either except Mormons.

I don't get the benefit from BYU TV or Liberty TV. If anything, its a millstone, condemning our games to be broadcasted on networks that have zero exposure. You think the local sports bar is going to carry Liberty TV on its screens?

I don't think many of us liked BeIN. Liberty TV is like BeIN in a vacuum.
(This post was last modified: 05-14-2017 12:06 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
05-14-2017 12:04 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #22
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
(05-14-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-13-2017 11:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Sun Belt will swallow their PC next time they get raided and invite Liberty.

The Sun Belt isn't getting raided. CUSA is full. And if CUSA loses any team, its likely to be a 'better' program, which will make the conference even less desireable as a moving program. CUSA isn't going to 16 teams until the CFP payout terms change. And if CUSA loses two of USM/Marshall/Rice....then why would any Belt team leave?

Right now, most of our teams find CUSA to be a lateral, at best, move. There's no more money in it for us. For the vast majority of our teams, moving to CUSA would get us no additional exposure, no additional TV revenue, marginally (at best) better basketball, the same or worse baseball, no increase in football, a million dollar exit fee from the Belt, and higher travel costs in a conference that is actually more unstable now than the Belt is.

I don't see LU in a conference anytime soon. If CUSA loses two teams, they most likely do NOTHING. I don't see the Belt taking anyone anytime soon (and if they lost Eastern teams, then NMSU would be added as a full member). The MAC isn't taking them - probably even if desperate - and the MAC is super stable anyway.

Remember, in most conferences you need between two-thirds and three fourths to gain admission. For LU, that's going to be very difficult. The only path is if CUSA gets gutted by the AAC, SBC, and MWC and gets into a desperate situation. That is unlikely at this time.

So most likely for LU....CUSA. But still pretty unlikely.

Overall I agree---but there are Sunbelt teams who would accept a CUSA invite because it works better from them. For example---Texas St almost certainly would accept a CUSA invite.

That said, at this point, should CUSA lose a team in the future---it might set the stage for a reorganization rather than a poaching battle.
05-14-2017 12:05 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #23
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
(05-14-2017 12:04 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-14-2017 11:58 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-13-2017 11:05 AM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  1) I don't think you'll see any new FBS conferences organized because that would only dilute the pot of money from the CFP that the g5 conferences already split. Every new conference would split that already smallish pot another way. So, while CUSA and the SBC could re-organize amongst themselves, I don't look for CUSA to subdivide into two where there is only one right now.

2) CUSA is already in dire financial straights. They are on the verge of losing their conference media deal. So, unless Liberty somehow bolsters that sagging deal, Liberty won't get added and Liberty probably should examine their options carefully if they are invited. Jumping into a sinking conference likely isn't a great idea.

3) The Sunbelt is the obvious option, but may not have room or the inclination to add Liberty.

I'm guessing that Liberty remains independent in FB until the situation clears up.

Agree. Also, there is another factor, other than big stacks of money, than makes Liberty uniquely suited to survive and even thrive as an independent. Liberty (like BYU), has their own national TV network.

That TV network is a mirage. No one watches it. Quick....where is Liberty TV on your cable lineup? Don't know? That's what I thought 99% of you would say.

All of our games are on ESPN3, at a minimum. Half of the Belt games are televised on higher level formats. Liberty TV isn't going to be paying anything significant for the carriage rights either.

No one watches BYU TV either except Mormons.

I don't get the benefit from BYU TV or Liberty TV. If anything, its a millstone, condemning our games to be broadcasted on networks that have zero exposure. You think the local sports bar is going to carry Liberty TV on its screens?

I don't think many of us liked BeIN. Liberty TV is like BeIN in a vacuum.

Doesnt matter. Nobody watches Liberty now. Thats my point. They have plenty of money and their games are accessible to their fans nationwide without any assistance from a sports network. They are uniquely positioned to survive as an indy school. I just don't see any current FBS conference ever having any interest in them. Too controversial. Which is probably why they got the waiver. They could sue saying they were being descriminated against on the basis of religious beliefs and they likely wold have won. It would have been hard for the NCAA to say they couldn't put together a viable FBS schedule when they have the financial means to simply buy 12 games. So---Liberty got their waiver. But that's all they got. I think they will be indy for a long long time.
(This post was last modified: 05-14-2017 12:22 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-14-2017 12:15 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #24
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
(05-14-2017 12:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-14-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-13-2017 11:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Sun Belt will swallow their PC next time they get raided and invite Liberty.

The Sun Belt isn't getting raided. CUSA is full. And if CUSA loses any team, its likely to be a 'better' program, which will make the conference even less desireable as a moving program. CUSA isn't going to 16 teams until the CFP payout terms change. And if CUSA loses two of USM/Marshall/Rice....then why would any Belt team leave?

Right now, most of our teams find CUSA to be a lateral, at best, move. There's no more money in it for us. For the vast majority of our teams, moving to CUSA would get us no additional exposure, no additional TV revenue, marginally (at best) better basketball, the same or worse baseball, no increase in football, a million dollar exit fee from the Belt, and higher travel costs in a conference that is actually more unstable now than the Belt is.

I don't see LU in a conference anytime soon. If CUSA loses two teams, they most likely do NOTHING. I don't see the Belt taking anyone anytime soon (and if they lost Eastern teams, then NMSU would be added as a full member). The MAC isn't taking them - probably even if desperate - and the MAC is super stable anyway.

Remember, in most conferences you need between two-thirds and three fourths to gain admission. For LU, that's going to be very difficult. The only path is if CUSA gets gutted by the AAC, SBC, and MWC and gets into a desperate situation. That is unlikely at this time.

So most likely for LU....CUSA. But still pretty unlikely.

Overall I agree---but there are Sunbelt teams who would accept a CUSA invite because it works better from them. For example---Texas St almost certainly would accept a CUSA invite.

That said, at this point, should CUSA lose a team in the future---it might set the stage for a reorganization rather than a poaching battle.

Even in the (IMHO) unlikely scenario where there is a resorting of the two conferences (too off topic to delve into here), there will likely be no place for Liberty. Here's why. The Sun Belt and CUSA together have a total of 24 football teams, which is 4 more teams than are optimal. Actually, 10 - not 12 - is the most optimal, but above 12 has a penalty for the other teams.

There'd likely be no room for ANY other program in such a scenario, much less one that attracts controversy. In order to retain NCAA bids and CFP payouts, a resort would have to maintain both conferences' integrity. No team from either conference is going to get shown the door in such a resorting scenario (including UTA and UALR), and there are too many teams to begin with. The NCAA isn't likely to grant waivers in order to strand more teams in independent status and possibly encourage a third conference be created in order to deal with them which would - you guessed it - encourage MORE teams to move to FBS.

If the Big XII-II decided to take more than two teams...then there's a possibility that LU would be in the mix for one of those spots. But, I suspect that JMU would be taken before LU in such a scenario.

But remember that a Western based CUSA/Belt conference might find NMSU attractive, and an Eastern one might want UMass as a football only.

Either way, until the CFP contract expires, its unlikely that ANY team gets added from FCS or FBS to any existing G5 conference, much less a team that invites and relishes controversy.
(This post was last modified: 05-14-2017 12:27 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
05-14-2017 12:21 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #25
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
(05-14-2017 12:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-14-2017 12:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-14-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-13-2017 11:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Sun Belt will swallow their PC next time they get raided and invite Liberty.

The Sun Belt isn't getting raided. CUSA is full. And if CUSA loses any team, its likely to be a 'better' program, which will make the conference even less desireable as a moving program. CUSA isn't going to 16 teams until the CFP payout terms change. And if CUSA loses two of USM/Marshall/Rice....then why would any Belt team leave?

Right now, most of our teams find CUSA to be a lateral, at best, move. There's no more money in it for us. For the vast majority of our teams, moving to CUSA would get us no additional exposure, no additional TV revenue, marginally (at best) better basketball, the same or worse baseball, no increase in football, a million dollar exit fee from the Belt, and higher travel costs in a conference that is actually more unstable now than the Belt is.

I don't see LU in a conference anytime soon. If CUSA loses two teams, they most likely do NOTHING. I don't see the Belt taking anyone anytime soon (and if they lost Eastern teams, then NMSU would be added as a full member). The MAC isn't taking them - probably even if desperate - and the MAC is super stable anyway.

Remember, in most conferences you need between two-thirds and three fourths to gain admission. For LU, that's going to be very difficult. The only path is if CUSA gets gutted by the AAC, SBC, and MWC and gets into a desperate situation. That is unlikely at this time.

So most likely for LU....CUSA. But still pretty unlikely.

Overall I agree---but there are Sunbelt teams who would accept a CUSA invite because it works better from them. For example---Texas St almost certainly would accept a CUSA invite.

That said, at this point, should CUSA lose a team in the future---it might set the stage for a reorganization rather than a poaching battle.

Even in the (IMHO) unlikely scenario where there is a resorting of the two conferences (too off topic to delve into here), there will likely be no place for Liberty. Here's why. The Sun Belt and CUSA together have a total of 24 teams, which is 2 more teams than are optimal.

There'd likely be no room for ANY other program in such a scenario, much less one that attracts controversy. In order to retain NCAA bids and CFP payouts, a resort would have to maintain both conferences' integrity. No team from either conference is going to get shown the door in such a resorting scenario, and there are too many teams to begin with. The NCAA isn't likely to grant waivers in order to strand more teams in independent status and possibly encourage a third conference be created in order to deal with them which would - you guessed it - encourage MORE teams to move to FBS.

If the Big XII-II decided to take more than two teams...then there's a possibility that LU would be in the mix for one of those spots. But, I suspect that JMU would be taken before LU in such a scenario.

If you're under the impression I think Liberty is heading for confernece membership in my lifetime you have misunderstood my posts. I believe EXACTLY the opposite. I think Liberty will be indy for a long long time. My only argument has been that I believe they represent the rare case where they probably have the right combination of resources to survive as an FBS indy. We are on the same page. No FBS conferece is invting Liberty as long as their current practices remain in place. 04-cheers
(This post was last modified: 05-14-2017 12:29 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-14-2017 12:25 PM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #26
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
(05-14-2017 12:25 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-14-2017 12:21 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-14-2017 12:05 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-14-2017 11:29 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(05-13-2017 11:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  The Sun Belt will swallow their PC next time they get raided and invite Liberty.

The Sun Belt isn't getting raided. CUSA is full. And if CUSA loses any team, its likely to be a 'better' program, which will make the conference even less desireable as a moving program. CUSA isn't going to 16 teams until the CFP payout terms change. And if CUSA loses two of USM/Marshall/Rice....then why would any Belt team leave?

Right now, most of our teams find CUSA to be a lateral, at best, move. There's no more money in it for us. For the vast majority of our teams, moving to CUSA would get us no additional exposure, no additional TV revenue, marginally (at best) better basketball, the same or worse baseball, no increase in football, a million dollar exit fee from the Belt, and higher travel costs in a conference that is actually more unstable now than the Belt is.

I don't see LU in a conference anytime soon. If CUSA loses two teams, they most likely do NOTHING. I don't see the Belt taking anyone anytime soon (and if they lost Eastern teams, then NMSU would be added as a full member). The MAC isn't taking them - probably even if desperate - and the MAC is super stable anyway.

Remember, in most conferences you need between two-thirds and three fourths to gain admission. For LU, that's going to be very difficult. The only path is if CUSA gets gutted by the AAC, SBC, and MWC and gets into a desperate situation. That is unlikely at this time.

So most likely for LU....CUSA. But still pretty unlikely.

Overall I agree---but there are Sunbelt teams who would accept a CUSA invite because it works better from them. For example---Texas St almost certainly would accept a CUSA invite.

That said, at this point, should CUSA lose a team in the future---it might set the stage for a reorganization rather than a poaching battle.

Even in the (IMHO) unlikely scenario where there is a resorting of the two conferences (too off topic to delve into here), there will likely be no place for Liberty. Here's why. The Sun Belt and CUSA together have a total of 24 teams, which is 2 more teams than are optimal.

There'd likely be no room for ANY other program in such a scenario, much less one that attracts controversy. In order to retain NCAA bids and CFP payouts, a resort would have to maintain both conferences' integrity. No team from either conference is going to get shown the door in such a resorting scenario, and there are too many teams to begin with. The NCAA isn't likely to grant waivers in order to strand more teams in independent status and possibly encourage a third conference be created in order to deal with them which would - you guessed it - encourage MORE teams to move to FBS.

If the Big XII-II decided to take more than two teams...then there's a possibility that LU would be in the mix for one of those spots. But, I suspect that JMU would be taken before LU in such a scenario.

If you're under the impression I think Liberty is heading for confernece membership in my lifetime you have misunderstood my posts. I believe EXACTLY the opposite. I think Liberty will be indy for a long long time. My only argument has been that I believe they represent the rare case where they probably have the right combination of resources to survive as an FBS indy. We are on the same page. No FBS conferece is invting Liberty as long as their current practices remain in place. 04-cheers

I didn't think we were disagreeing. Just addressing the whole..'maybe in a re sort scenario'....LU would get into a conference. Just pointing out why that's not likely for a long time.
05-14-2017 12:32 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #27
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
Adding more bowl games=more money. Yes, new conferences can be formed, but may not get CFP money at first, but they will still get money from the new bowl games. As long as people watch bowl games? There will still be money being spend including tv. ESPN do hyped up some of the FCS schools for people to get interested in them like Eastern Washington and North Dakota State. They even hyped up Jacksonville State and James Madison as well. Youngstown State is also getting some love from ESPN. Stony Brook, Mercer, North Florida and FGCU get hyped up for basketball. Stony Brook and Coastal Carolina for baseball. I do think those schools could replaced schools when realignment takes place again. There are already people getting to know these schools. ESPN also hyped up Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, and look at where they are? They did good for SBC in their first 2 years. I think Towson and Chattanooga also got some loved if they moved up. Both of them scored a lot of points on their SEC opponents.
05-14-2017 01:01 PM
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perimeterpost Offline
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Post: #28
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
not this one.
05-14-2017 01:24 PM
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Schadenfreude Offline
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Post: #29
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
(05-13-2017 08:37 AM)Chappy Wrote:  As a more serious answer, I think eventually C-USA could split into more geographically friendly conferences and one of those could scoop up Liberty and UMass.

If Massachusetts wouldn't join the MAC in all sports, why would it join Conference USA?
05-15-2017 06:06 PM
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SlyFox Offline
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Post: #30
RE: What Conference will Liberty end up in.
If there is one thing that is as consistent as the sun rising in the east every morning, it is Tom sniffing out a Liberty thread and repeating the same propoganda. Don't go changing, Tom.

Yes, it will take just the right situation for my Flames to find a permanent conference home. In the meantime, we are very happy to be in our current state that allows us better football scheduling for us than if we had been tied into the Sun Belt rotations. It is far from a great situation but is adequate for us right now. Hopefully we can earn opportunities on the field.
05-16-2017 08:38 AM
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