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sunbelt vs cusa
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BlazerFromMD Away
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Post: #11
RE: sunbelt vs cusa
(05-11-2017 09:52 AM)UABslant Wrote:  Who went to the 2017 NCAA tournament for the Sun Belt again?05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot

That's a Colorado level of pots you've got there.03-drunk
05-11-2017 10:15 AM
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Memphis Blazer Offline
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Post: #12
RE: sunbelt vs cusa
(05-11-2017 07:39 AM)ICB Wrote:  If you take the top six Sunbelt team and they face the top six conference USA team, I'd be willing to bet that in a three-game series conference USA wins five out of the six

Using RPI as a predicting tool, you would be wrong. Only CUSA's top team is ranked ahead of the Sun Belt's top team, and just barely.

1. MTSU 34 Texas Arlington 40 - CUSA wins
2. Marshall 108 Georgia State 106 - Sun Belt wins
3. Louisana Tech 116 Arkansas State 113 - Sun Belt wins
4. ODU 136 Louisiana Lafayette - 114 - Sun Belt Wins
5. Rice 174 Georgia Southern 144 - Sun Belt wins
6. UAB 199 Troy 150 - Sun Belt wins.

I know on the court play would be different, but you can only guess what would happen. We use RPI to justify everything so we should look at it as well. And Sun Belt was better next year. Period.
05-12-2017 09:54 AM
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blazerjay Offline
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Post: #13
RE: sunbelt vs cusa
(05-12-2017 09:54 AM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  
(05-11-2017 07:39 AM)ICB Wrote:  If you take the top six Sunbelt team and they face the top six conference USA team, I'd be willing to bet that in a three-game series conference USA wins five out of the six

Using RPI as a predicting tool, you would be wrong. Only CUSA's top team is ranked ahead of the Sun Belt's top team, and just barely.

1. MTSU 34 Texas Arlington 40 - CUSA wins
2. Marshall 108 Georgia State 106 - Sun Belt wins
3. Louisana Tech 116 Arkansas State 113 - Sun Belt wins
4. ODU 136 Louisiana Lafayette - 114 - Sun Belt Wins
5. Rice 174 Georgia Southern 144 - Sun Belt wins
6. UAB 199 Troy 150 - Sun Belt wins.

I know on the court play would be different, but you can only guess what would happen. We use RPI to justify everything so we should look at it as well. And Sun Belt was better next year. Period.

I'll play that game. This time using the final Sagarin Ratings, which, based upon my research during the last three season long pick'em contests is a much better indicator of actual game outcomes than the RPI. As seen below, this predictor estimates C-USA would win 4 of 6 very close games at a neutral sites with Sagarin's composite ratings and that increases to 5 of 6 when using Sagain's predictor ratings (blue).

57 Middle Tennessee = 81.32 (81.05)
80 Texas-Arlington = 78.13 (78.01)
CUSA Wins
----------------------------------
148 Marshall = 72.08 (72.15)
144 Georgia State = 72.29 (72.11)
SBC Wins (CUSA Wins)
-----------------------------------
100 Louisiana Tech = 76.16 (76.68)
140 Arkansas State = 72.55 (72.66)
CUSA Wins
-------------------------------------
122 Old Dominion = 73.65 (73.62)
158 Louisiana-Lafayette = 71.74 (71.69)
CUSA Wins
--------------------------------------
157 Rice = 71.77 (71.84)
197 Georgia Southern = 69.43 (69.17)
CUSA Wins
---------------------------------------
169 UAB = 71.01 (71.14)
162 Troy = 71.42 (71.41)
SBC Wins
--------------------------------------

Upon looking at both conferences ratings as a whole C-USA had the 19th highest average rating, while the Sun Belt had the 14th. The main difference C-USA being saddled with two additional anchors, both rated in the 300's. If those two anchors are disregarded to only look at 12 vs. 12, then C-USA would have been the 14th rated conference, pushing the Belt down to 15th.

When only looking at average ratings of every conference's top six teams, C-USA comes in at #13, while the SBC would be #15.

Basically, the two conferences are currently very similar in profile, and anyone can find numbers to tilt towards either.
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2017 11:04 AM by blazerjay.)
05-12-2017 10:38 AM
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Post: #14
RE: sunbelt vs cusa
(05-12-2017 10:38 AM)blazerjay Wrote:  
(05-12-2017 09:54 AM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  
(05-11-2017 07:39 AM)ICB Wrote:  If you take the top six Sunbelt team and they face the top six conference USA team, I'd be willing to bet that in a three-game series conference USA wins five out of the six

Using RPI as a predicting tool, you would be wrong. Only CUSA's top team is ranked ahead of the Sun Belt's top team, and just barely.

1. MTSU 34 Texas Arlington 40 - CUSA wins
2. Marshall 108 Georgia State 106 - Sun Belt wins
3. Louisana Tech 116 Arkansas State 113 - Sun Belt wins
4. ODU 136 Louisiana Lafayette - 114 - Sun Belt Wins
5. Rice 174 Georgia Southern 144 - Sun Belt wins
6. UAB 199 Troy 150 - Sun Belt wins.

I know on the court play would be different, but you can only guess what would happen. We use RPI to justify everything so we should look at it as well. And Sun Belt was better next year. Period.

I'll play that game. This time using the final Sagarin Ratings, which, based upon my research during the last three season long pick'em contests is a much better indicator of actual game outcomes than the RPI. As seen below, this predictor estimates C-USA would win 4 of 6 very close games at a neutral sites with Sagarin's composite ratings and that increases to 5 of 6 when using Sagain's predictor ratings (blue).

57 Middle Tennessee = 81.32 (81.05)
80 Texas-Arlington = 78.13 (78.01)
CUSA Wins
----------------------------------
148 Marshall = 72.08 (72.15)
144 Georgia State = 72.29 (72.11)
SBC Wins (CUSA Wins)
-----------------------------------
100 Louisiana Tech = 76.16 (76.68)
140 Arkansas State = 72.55 (72.66)
CUSA Wins
-------------------------------------
122 Old Dominion = 73.65 (73.62)
158 Louisiana-Lafayette = 71.74 (71.69)
CUSA Wins
--------------------------------------
157 Rice = 71.77 (71.84)
197 Georgia Southern = 69.43 (69.17)
CUSA Wins
---------------------------------------
169 UAB = 71.01 (71.14)
162 Troy = 71.42 (71.41)
SBC Wins

--------------------------------------

Upon looking at both conferences ratings as a whole C-USA had the 19th highest average rating, while the Sun Belt had the 14th. The main difference C-USA being saddled with two additional anchors, both rated in the 300's. If those two anchors are disregarded to only look at 12 vs. 12, then C-USA would have been the 14th rated conference, pushing the Belt down to 15th.

Basically, the two conferences are currently very similar in profile, and anyone can find numbers to tilt towards either.

And, of course, this past season, on 11/17/16, UAB beat Troy 74-51 at UAB...
05-12-2017 10:46 AM
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uabbean Offline
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Post: #15
RE: sunbelt vs cusa
(05-11-2017 04:59 AM)ATTALLABLAZE Wrote:  Clearly? Lol. Let's not get silly. Glad you are not in charge of anything.
We were the 23rd ranked conference - actually in the bottom
TEN conferences in RPI. Very much the same in the power rankings that's pretty CLEAR to me.

AB other that your silly wishes and fan dreams - do you any objective criteria to think CUSA is better?
05-12-2017 10:47 AM
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blazerjay Offline
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Post: #16
RE: sunbelt vs cusa
Again, there are numbers to tilt either direction. If you simply look at the standing numbers, C-USA was indeed #23, to the Sun Belt's #13. However if you actually look at the ratings numbers, you will find that there isn't much difference between #11 and all the way down to #30. In fact #23 is more closely rated to #13 (0.027 difference) than #13 is to #8 (0.0268).

Yes, #23 is not where anyone would like to be. But, in reality, #23 is not that different from #13. Everyone outside of the top 10 and the bottom 2 are simply all so close to each other that a very few different non-conference results would alter those final rankings wildly.
05-12-2017 11:55 AM
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Post: #17
RE: sunbelt vs cusa
(05-11-2017 09:52 AM)UABslant Wrote:  Who went to the 2017 NCAA tournament for the Sun Belt again?05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot05-stirthepot

Same team a mediocre UAB team beat the hell out of? 05-stirthepot
05-14-2017 07:32 PM
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