http://www.cbssports.com/college-footbal...s-to-sink/

(05-09-2017 07:42 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  http://www.cbssports.com/college-footbal...s-to-sink/

They might be OK now, but with the lack of a conference network and the refusal by some to sign a GOR extension, the writing is on the wall.

It appears that one of two things could happen, One, the little 7 make a deal to let the big 3 (TX, OU, & KS) go their own way then expand to add schools like Houston or BYU to create a conference like the AAC. Perhaps negotiating for the new conference to keep bowl agreements etc. Two, everyone waits it out and when the contract expires, the big 3 go elsewhere and the little 7 are left to fend for themselves and could very well be on the outside looking in.

In either case, the Big XII might be "alive", but it's on life support waiting to have the plug pulled.

You have to wonder if other media partners want this conference to die so parts of it can be healthy and optimal elsewhere. That we could be here in this place in time where the conference is a major or exists in name only.

If this is how it's going to be until the contract ends, we all will lose. This is insufferable nonsense. Articles like this will become more frequent, and whatever reaction to them will be like marveling at how water is wet.

Everyone is unhappy. The schools are unhappy. The networks are unhappy. Their arrangement is a goner, self-centered and sustained... and they don't seem to care if they drag us all through it the rest of the way, too.

Why do we need to know OU is still unhappy? We don't need to be reminded with silly stats this is unresolved. The parties who want to put this out there and publish it can be the same who help pull the plug. They won't, and that's the most pitiful part of this all... because now conference death or further splits are part of the act for making these guys a little more money?

My hope in this all is that this ends soon, ahead of the end of the current contracted date, and that you get a P4+1 where whatever remains of the Big XII absorbs a bunch of the leftovers. The conference won't be P4/5-like in revenue, but its major status will remain and more schools will get access to the playoff structure. Anything, though, will be better than more of this.

The damage is already done.

2010 BCS Conferences
SEC 12
B12 12
ACC 12
B1G 11
PAC 10
BE 8 (smallest on the totem poll)

2017 CFP Power Conferences
SEC 14
B1G 14
ACC 14
PAC 12
B12 10 (smallest on the totem poll)

B12 has gone from a Top 3 football conference in a 6 conference BCS system to the fifth rated conference in a 5 conference CFP system.

The state of Texas giving its top recruits away to Ohio State sounds a lot like Florida giving its top recruits to Alabama. In the playoff only 4 teams matter so those in contention matter.

TCU moving into the B12 and instantly becoming a dominant force makes the conference appear to be not far from MWC 1.0 caliber.

To be fair to TCU, they and Houston should have been the ones in the Big XII at the start, not Tech and Baylor. It does say something when they can immediately contribute upon entry: the conference got it wrong. That, and that MWC was a major at its peak.

OTOH, there's that empty stadium the day the Frogs had Kansas in town, and everyone went to R3 instead...

(05-09-2017 11:55 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  You have to wonder if other media partners want this conference to die so parts of it can be healthy and optimal elsewhere. That we could be here in this place in time where the conference is a major or exists in name only.

If this is how it's going to be until the contract ends, we all will lose. This is insufferable nonsense. Articles like this will become more frequent, and whatever reaction to them will be like marveling at how water is wet.

Everyone is unhappy. The schools are unhappy. The networks are unhappy. Their arrangement is a goner, self-centered and sustained... and they don't seem to care if they drag us all through it the rest of the way, too.

Why do we need to know OU is still unhappy? We don't need to be reminded with silly stats this is unresolved. The parties who want to put this out there and publish it can be the same who help pull the plug. They won't, and that's the most pitiful part of this all... because now conference death or further splits are part of the act for making these guys a little more money?

My hope in this all is that this ends soon, ahead of the end of the current contracted date, and that you get a P4+1 where whatever remains of the Big XII absorbs a bunch of the leftovers. The conference won't be P4/5-like in revenue, but its major status will remain and more schools will get access to the playoff structure. Anything, though, will be better than more of this.

The Big East experience may be instructive. The value was eventually plucked out.

I don't buy into the hype that ESPN is doomed and don't believe ESPN terribly over-paid. ESPN is going to make money it just looks less and less like carriage fees will be their big revenue source.

When ESPN becomes much more of a buffet and much less a linear channel, the chaff becomes less valuable, it is something to throw up online at low cost.

(05-10-2017 05:08 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  To be fair to TCU, they and Houston should have been the ones in the Big XII at the start, not Tech and Baylor. It does say something when they can immediately contribute upon entry: the conference got it wrong. That, and that MWC was a major at its peak.

OTOH, there's that empty stadium the day the Frogs had Kansas in town, and everyone went to R3 instead...

Baylor and Tech were the 3rd and 4th strongest programs in the SWC at the time, as well as far ahead of the rest in fan support. Over the 15 year life of the 12 team Big 12, Tech was tied for 4th in conference record with Kansas St. at 69-51. Over the last 10 years, they were tied for 3rd with Nebraska at 47-33, while being in the stronger Big 12 South, playing Texas and Oklahoma every year.

(05-10-2017 09:19 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:08 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  To be fair to TCU, they and Houston should have been the ones in the Big XII at the start, not Tech and Baylor. It does say something when they can immediately contribute upon entry: the conference got it wrong. That, and that MWC was a major at its peak.

OTOH, there's that empty stadium the day the Frogs had Kansas in town, and everyone went to R3 instead...

Baylor and Tech were the 3rd and 4th strongest programs in the SWC at the time, as well as far ahead of the rest in fan support. Over the 15 year life of the 12 team Big 12, Tech was tied for 4th in conference record with Kansas St. at 69-51. Over the last 10 years, they were tied for 3rd with Nebraska at 47-33, while being in the stronger Big 12 South, playing Texas and Oklahoma every year.

Tech gives a presence in West Texas where TCU/SMU/Houston/Rice were duplicative.

(05-10-2017 09:22 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 09:19 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 05:08 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  To be fair to TCU, they and Houston should have been the ones in the Big XII at the start, not Tech and Baylor. It does say something when they can immediately contribute upon entry: the conference got it wrong. That, and that MWC was a major at its peak.

OTOH, there's that empty stadium the day the Frogs had Kansas in town, and everyone went to R3 instead...

Baylor and Tech were the 3rd and 4th strongest programs in the SWC at the time, as well as far ahead of the rest in fan support. Over the 15 year life of the 12 team Big 12, Tech was tied for 4th in conference record with Kansas St. at 69-51. Over the last 10 years, they were tied for 3rd with Nebraska at 47-33, while being in the stronger Big 12 South, playing Texas and Oklahoma every year.

Tech gives a presence in West Texas where TCU/SMU/Houston/Rice were duplicative.

In regards to Tech/B12, I've thought of West Texas as its own small population state, and Tech as its university. They are huge in Lubbock and Amarillo, and are a player pretty much anywhere west of I-35, including DFW. They have brought value to the B12 both on and off the field. Not a world beater, not a bottom dweller.

Their role in a post-Big 12 future, however, is another story that has yet to be written.

Over the last 5-10 years we've seen the emergence of major revenue sources for the conferences.

CFP-The payouts the G5 are getting are about the same size as what the BCS conferences picked up from the system previously. P5's of course have tripled on that.

Conference Networks-They've become a major source of revenue and distinction for conferences.

The old model which still exists is paying a conference for it's first tier/second tier rights in a traditional TV deal could be moving to the wayside.

We know Texas can survive on its own if the conference deal takes a pay cut. This article says Oklahoma can do the same thing. If that is true there may be no reason to leave the B12.

What if ESPN decides that the market has changed and the conference deals for the B1G, SEC, PAC, ACC take a 25% paycut, which is only fair because they are making up for it on conference networks. Then approach the B12 and say they'll pay 50% for the conference deal relative to what the B1G, SEC, ACC, PAC are making. That would be a huge loss of revenue for schools not named Texas and Oklahoma in the B12 with no conference deal to supplement.

You've already seen it in the G5 where the majority of TV money is running through the CFP and outside of the traditional conference TV deal. To get any money beyond the CFP in the future the G5 may have to pool resources into a conference network.

I don't expect TV rights for tiers 1 and 2 to fall, but I would be surprised if they keep growing. The next big contract will tell.

I don't think we'll see the G5 conferences pool their rights - too much competition. Besides, what's in it for the AAC?

(05-10-2017 10:01 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I don't expect TV rights for tiers 1 and 2 to fall, but I would be surprised if they keep growing. The next big contract will tell.

I don't think we'll see the G5 conferences pool their rights - too much competition. Besides, what's in it for the AAC?

What I think the G5 should do is reform into 5 conferences each with 10 teams.

East Conference
North Conference
South Conference
Central Conference
West Conference

Reform and structure for a network deal while cutting out some of the less valuable properties. When I think of East it could be Buffalo, UConn, UMass, Temple, Army, Navy, ODU, ECU, USF, UCF. 10 team conference playing round robin and the top 2 ranked schools play for a conference championship.

Every conference can sign independently for 1st/2nd tier rights but 3rd tier rights belong to the G5 network which might be worth 1 to 2 million per school. The lionshare of the money would be in the CFP/Bowl System with conferences not paid much for 1st/2nd tier rights anymore.

Economics are going to force some changes IMO.

(05-10-2017 08:07 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 11:55 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  You have to wonder if other media partners want this conference to die so parts of it can be healthy and optimal elsewhere. That we could be here in this place in time where the conference is a major or exists in name only.

If this is how it's going to be until the contract ends, we all will lose. This is insufferable nonsense. Articles like this will become more frequent, and whatever reaction to them will be like marveling at how water is wet.

Everyone is unhappy. The schools are unhappy. The networks are unhappy. Their arrangement is a goner, self-centered and sustained... and they don't seem to care if they drag us all through it the rest of the way, too.

Why do we need to know OU is still unhappy? We don't need to be reminded with silly stats this is unresolved. The parties who want to put this out there and publish it can be the same who help pull the plug. They won't, and that's the most pitiful part of this all... because now conference death or further splits are part of the act for making these guys a little more money?

My hope in this all is that this ends soon, ahead of the end of the current contracted date, and that you get a P4+1 where whatever remains of the Big XII absorbs a bunch of the leftovers. The conference won't be P4/5-like in revenue, but its major status will remain and more schools will get access to the playoff structure. Anything, though, will be better than more of this.

The Big East experience may be instructive. The value was eventually plucked out.

I don't buy into the hype that ESPN is doomed and don't believe ESPN terribly over-paid. ESPN is going to make money it just looks less and less like carriage fees will be their big revenue source.

When ESPN becomes much more of a buffet and much less a linear channel, the chaff becomes less valuable, it is something to throw up online at low cost.

The value was certainly NOT plucked out of the Big East. It disappeared.

The Northeast lost interest in college football over 3 decades of stupid decisions by the powers-that-be. Starting with the refusal to let Penn State into the Big East.