(05-08-2017 08:04 PM)BufflOwl Wrote:  

(05-08-2017 04:59 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-08-2017 04:17 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  

(05-08-2017 03:54 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-08-2017 03:48 PM)Old Sammy Wrote:  That's Boyd Nation's yardstick. From his website:

This report lists the various scenarios for each team to finish higher than the team currently in the shown key RPI positions, those that correspond to the various seeding or at large thresholds, assuming that all other teams maintain their current winning percentage. It's highly speculative, since those RPI levels will move up or down, and the committee is highly unlikely to just take the top 8 in RPI for the national seeds, for example, but it can be useful as a rough guide.

IMO, top 45 is what it takes to be in the conversation. Top 35 is a very high (99%?) probability of an at large bid.

Agree to disagree. Name a non-P5 team that has ever gotten an at-large bid with an RPI over #40? I dare you to find one.

This is tough to approximate, given that all the RPIs on WarrenNolan are from after tournament play ended, but here are a few contenders.

2016:

-Long Beach State

2015:

-Tulane

2014:

-ODU
-San Diego St

2013:

-Seton Hall
-Coastal Carolina

*Note: None of these teams had any kind of impressive win streak at the end of the year.

I think the better analog might be Oregon in 2015 who got into the tourney with an RPI in low 60's after ending the season on a 10-2 run. That year, the PAC was the 4th rated RPI conference (#91 overall SOS, 15-16 vs. top 100). If we were to win out, our RPI would be better, our SOS MUCH better, and our record vs. the top 100 slightly worse.

Yes, but Oregon is in the Pac-12; not CUSA. You're kidding yourself if you think that doesn't make a difference with the Selection Committee. BTW, SoS is already factored into RPI, and is the primary reason our RPI is in the mid-50s despite a 22 - 26 record. Even if we beat UH tomorrow, our record vs. Top 100 will be only 16-21, which is more than "slightly worse" than 15-16.

Look, anything is possible, especially if we were to run the table heading into the tournament, and advance to the Championship game, but that would only put us on the at-large bubble (and highly dependent on few if any major upsets in the various conference tournaments).

Another barrier to entry to keep in mind is placement in the regular season conference standings and how the teams ahead of us are considered. Our likely resume in 4th place in conference with the 3 teams ahead getting in plays significantly better than the exact same resume in 6th or 7th forcing the committee to skip past two teams to pick us and leave them out.

Yeah, understood, but I think if we do what it takes to get an at large (win out), 18-12 in C-USA will be in 4th or 5th place.

I just think the 17 straight wins (before a loss in a C-USA championship, hence the need for an at-large) would play very well.

That said, I'm done with this discussion because I think we're going to lose tomorrow. I don't know who we have on the mound. Jefferies I guess will probably start with Kravetz and Parthasarathy in relief (though they probably are only good for one batter the way Wayne has pulled them lately).

(05-08-2017 08:28 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  That said, I'm done with this discussion because I think we're going to lose tomorrow. I don't know who we have on the mound. Jefferies I guess will probably start with Kravetz and Parthasarathy in relief (though they probably are only good for one batter the way Wayne has pulled them lately).

1. I thought that before Sunday's game and the team proved me wrong.
2. UH has had trouble midweek since Romero left the weekend rotation.

Anyone know why Dane didn't get credited with the save on Sunday? He replaced Moss in the bottom of the 8th inning with Rice leading 10-8, and pitched the final two scoreless innings in Rice's 11-8 win. How is that not a save situation (3 runs or less)?

(05-09-2017 08:09 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Anyone know why Dane didn't get credited with the save on Sunday? He replaced Moss in the bottom of the 8th inning with Rice leading 10-8, and pitched the final two scoreless innings in Rice's 11-8 win. How is that not a save situation (3 runs or less)?

Myers was the winning pitcher.

(05-09-2017 08:48 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:09 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Anyone know why Dane didn't get credited with the save on Sunday? He replaced Moss in the bottom of the 8th inning with Rice leading 10-8, and pitched the final two scoreless innings in Rice's 11-8 win. How is that not a save situation (3 runs or less)?

Myers was the winning pitcher.

How? He came in with Rice already ahead 10-8, no? Moss should have rightfully been credited with the win (not that he deserved it).

(05-09-2017 08:54 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:48 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:09 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Anyone know why Dane didn't get credited with the save on Sunday? He replaced Moss in the bottom of the 8th inning with Rice leading 10-8, and pitched the final two scoreless innings in Rice's 11-8 win. How is that not a save situation (3 runs or less)?

Myers was the winning pitcher.

How? He came in with Rice already ahead 10-8, no? Moss should have rightfully been credited with the win (not that he deserved it).

According to the box score, Myers relieved Schwarz with 2 outs in the 7th, with the score 3-8.

(05-09-2017 09:05 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:54 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:48 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:09 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Anyone know why Dane didn't get credited with the save on Sunday? He replaced Moss in the bottom of the 8th inning with Rice leading 10-8, and pitched the final two scoreless innings in Rice's 11-8 win. How is that not a save situation (3 runs or less)?

Myers was the winning pitcher.

How? He came in with Rice already ahead 10-8, no? Moss should have rightfully been credited with the win (not that he deserved it).

According to the box score, Myers relieved Schwarz with 2 outs in the 7th, with the score 3-8.

Gotcha. Makes Dane's outing that much more impressive.

(05-09-2017 09:05 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:54 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:48 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  

(05-09-2017 08:09 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Anyone know why Dane didn't get credited with the save on Sunday? He replaced Moss in the bottom of the 8th inning with Rice leading 10-8, and pitched the final two scoreless innings in Rice's 11-8 win. How is that not a save situation (3 runs or less)?

Myers was the winning pitcher.

How? He came in with Rice already ahead 10-8, no? Moss should have rightfully been credited with the win (not that he deserved it).

According to the box score, Myers relieved Schwarz with 2 outs in the 7th, with the score 3-8.

Also according to Post #32 of this very thread:

I Wrote:B7, cont'd:

Daddio pinch-hitting for Smith.

Schwarz coming in to pitch.

Daddio: Ball/high. Bloop double down the LF line. "Daddio gets a rare base hit. His second hit of the season. He was 1-for-14 before that."

Runners at 2nd & 3rd ... 1 out ... infield playing in.

Yett: Sac fly to LF drives in the 'Niners' 8th run. Sigh.

8-3, Charlotte.

Jones: 3-0 count. The #9-batter is walked!! Grrrr.

Mound visit. Myers to pitch now. Jeffries coming in to play 3B.

Myers only needed one pitch in B7, however:

I Wrote:B7, cont'd:

Jarrett: First-pitch soft one-bounce liner up the middle. Gray snags it and steps on 2nd for the inning-ending forceout.

8-3, Charlotte .... after 7.