(05-06-2017 06:39 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(05-05-2017 10:23 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Crazy Statistic of the night (RPI's as of 10:23 P.M. CST): We have more top 50 RPI wins than 40% of the top ten RPI teams.

Back in the day I used to play a silly game called "when have we mathematically clinched the at-large berth".. even if we lost literally all the remaining games. Now.. with our solid RPI... I think we're still mathematically in the at-large race. But it would probably take an unbeaten (or one beaten) run to the CUSA championship game. Plus we really need to win the conference title anyway. Because we're Rice, and that's just what we do...

Not a chance for an at-large birth. Not only will our RPI likely be outside the Top 40 (even if we run the table), but our conference record and record vs. Top 100 is not worthy. Our only shot is getting into the conference tournament and winning it, and I'm not sure we have enough pitching to do the latter.

Now tied with Marshall for 7th.
Win tomorrow and it's possible to catch UTSA and conceivably Charlotte. Both have tougher schedules than Rice for the last two weekends. Charlotte plays both UTSA and Marshall. UTSA plays Charlotte in NC and SMiss at home. Marshall plays LaTech on the road and Charlotte at home.

FWIW - Boyd Nation has an RPI Needs Report that predicts the finish each team needs to be top 45 RPI (i.e. probable at large). After today, both Rice and Charlotte have to win out, so at least according to Boyd the loser tomorrow loses all chances for an at large bid.

(05-06-2017 09:09 PM)Old Sammy Wrote:  Now tied with Marshall for 7th.
Win tomorrow and it's possible to catch UTSA and conceivably Charlotte. Both have tougher schedules than Rice for the last two weekends. Charlotte plays both UTSA and Marshall. UTSA plays Charlotte in NC and SMiss at home. Marshall plays LaTech on the road and Charlotte at home.

FWIW - Boyd Nation has an RPI Needs Report that predicts the finish each team needs to be top 45 RPI (i.e. probable at large). After today, both Rice and Charlotte have to win out, so at least according to Boyd the loser tomorrow loses all chances for an at large bid.

An at large bid from CUSA has to have a better than Top 45 RPI. We also need to be above .500 (which would require going no worse than 7-1 in our remaining regular season games). Even with that, I don't think our RPI gets into the low 40s.

Miami is in the same boat at Rice with a worse RPI (and slighly better overall conference record and overall record). It will be interesting to see how the committee handles them this year and if their nation's longest regional appearance streak finally comes to an end. If it does, FIU will have a large part in it, having gone 3-1 against Miami this year (and 2-1 at our place which hasn't helped our RPI either).