This Coloradoan columnist builds on Paul Finebaum's (ESPN SEC Network) comments made a few days ago on a radio show regarding the demise of the Big 12 Conference. http://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/c...309138001/

(05-04-2017 04:04 PM)Rob of NV Wrote:  This Coloradoan columnist builds on Paul Finebaum's (ESPN SEC Network) comments made a few days ago on a radio show regarding the demise of the Big 12 Conference. http://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/c...309138001/

What will happen?
Heck who knows.

What I think would happen is the remaining schools would carry on and set their sites on the MWC's front range schools (Wyoming, Colorado State, Air Force and New Mexico) and some mix of AAC schools. Based on past history they would get to stay as a part of the CFP's power 5 group to the end of the contract, retain the NCAA units and the remainder of the TV deal or cash buyout to make them whole.

After those expire they live the new life of not being in the power group unless they have a mix that the NY6 bowls want to retain and that is unlikely.

(05-04-2017 04:04 PM)Rob of NV Wrote:  This Coloradoan columnist builds on Paul Finebaum's (ESPN SEC Network) comments made a few days ago on a radio show regarding the demise of the Big 12 Conference. http://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/c...309138001/

It would depend on many things. Is this before the GOR expires because if so at least 8 need to be placed in a P conference somewhere. If it's after the best schools go to the highest bidder, or wherever they can get the best deal for another in state school.

It also depends on which if any conference gets a piece of the PACN. If nobody gets a piece there is no incentive for FOX or ESPN to locate product there that they want a more direct access to in either the Big 10, ACC or SEC where they can increase their own commercial value with that brand.

So until the PACN is a decided issue ArkansasSt. fan is correct.

But we do know some things. ESPN has a hold on Texas's T3 rights through the LHN until 2031. The ACC seems clearly headed toward their own network so they are likely safe from all of this and too distant from the Big 12 to really be a player this time around with regards to Big 12 properties. The SEC wants a larger piece of DFW. The get that with Texas, Oklahoma, or possibly by adding T.C.U. to A&M's presence there. Texas by all accounts is not interested in the SEC although they have had discussions with us several times since '91. Oklahoma wants somebody to take them and O.S.U.. Kansas really doesn't fit with the SEC although nobody can deny their basketball would help. West Virginia might be a back seat companion of one of the primary candidates if there is an opening.

The Big 10 only has three schools they can take that fit their profile: Iowa State, Kansas and Texas. Iowa State would not be their pick because they have Iowa. There are those who think the Big 10 would take Oklahoma for their brand and others Big 10 folks who say no because of academic. So for the sake of argument lets count them in the wanted by the Big 10 category. But remember Texas is obligated until 2031.

Now here's where an interest in the PACN comes into play. If ESPN held that interest then suddenly Texas and their entourage become a viable option if the money can get close to what Texas could make in the SEC or Big 10. If not then nothing has changed.

So if I had to take a guess, and that's what it would be, then I would say that perhaps Texas gets out of its obligation to ESPN at the price of the SEC landing Oklahoma. And the Big 10 adds Texas and Kansas. The SEC could take either West Virginia for a new market and a reasonable sports addition in football and basketball, or Oklahoma State for overall athletics, or even T.C.U. to have a presence in DFW.

But, I think even without Texas the PAC could use the Texas market and T.C.U. (which is more secular) and Texas Tech could give them that.

I think the ACC stays away from Big 12 product. And since OU gives us what we need in DFW and T.C.U. would be more useful to the PAC for that market then West Virginia might ultimately get that last ticket.

Can we all just remember that the Big XII has a GOR for longer than the 5 years Finebaum predicts that OU will bolt. So lets all take a step back and remember that Finebaum is an idiot. No one is leaving the Big XII until right before that GOR expires.

The only way the b12 collapses is if Texas leaves. I think they could survive if OU + 1 leave, backfilling. It would be a borderline P5 conference but Texas being there would keep them in the mix.

I don't think it's a given that any conference would take any B12 teams not named Texas. Not even OU. The SEC, B1G, and ACC are at 14. That's already unwieldy, and going to 16 gets to the point where you have 2 completely separate conferences, making cross-divisional play even all the more rare. With carriage rates going down, it's possible the less mouths to feed the better. OU is a shiny object, but having to take another along with them, and the impact on cross-division rivals, I don't think it's guaranteed. I can see the SEC staying put and waiting for a NC or VA team to be available down the road. The ACC is closed unless ND decides to join in football for some reason. The B1G might bite, as might the PAC, but I don't think anything is guaranteed.

If Texas leaves near the end of the contract, all bets are off, but if they stay, I'm not sure the B12 collapses at all, and whether it survives or not I'm not sure anyone will be chomping at the bit to add anyone other than UT.

AAC gets picked apart. That's what happens.

Sent from my SM-J700T using CSNbbs mobile app

(05-04-2017 10:25 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Can we all just remember that the Big XII has a GOR for longer than the 5 years Finebaum predicts that OU will bolt. So lets all take a step back and remember that Finebaum is an idiot. No one is leaving the Big XII until right before that GOR expires.

Feinbaum might not be too far off. Any league that wanted to negotiate for some of the Big 12 school properties could do so around the next 5 years and get all of their ducks in a row so that the schools leaving the Big 12 (Texas/Oklahoma) could give the conference ample notice that they are leaving after the 2024/25 season. Five years would put us at the 2022/2023 season. By then the departing schools could already have deals done and only have to give the conference the required notice that they are leaving after the 2024/25 season. This is kind of a stretch but entirely a plausible scenario, imo.

Tex is not becoming alsoran in somebody conf
1st thing B-12 has to do, get conf network & Lhnw figured out
Lhnw becomes quesa b-12 network & sighns tier 3 programing thru out conf
since B-12 sold prorate clause in TV contract, B-12 can expand by 8
match B-10 market size for 8 school package for alot less money

(05-04-2017 11:11 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  Tex is not becoming alsoran in somebody conf
1st thing B-12 has to do, get conf network & Lhnw figured out
Lhnw becomes quesa b-12 network & sighns tier 3 programing thru out conf
since B-12 sold prorate clause in TV contract, B-12 can expand by 8
match B-10 market size for 8 school package for alot less money

The Longhorns do not play well with others. They could care less, as they will always have a nice landing spot. They are the reason four schools have already left. They will just continue to run the conference until the money dwindles, then bail on the other schools. If OU ever leaves, UT will not be far behind. Some of us know this first hand.

Hasn't OU been trying to get out of the Big 12 since the Pac 16 deal collapsed? IIRC they tried to package themselves and OK st to the PAC but that was rejected. I have always heard the sec would take OU and Kansas but not OU and OK st. Thus OU is stuck

Big12 won't "collapse". It will just add new members from the G5. The Big12 will become C-USA 5.0.

From SportsDay.DallasNews.com:

How much faith do you have in the story that OU really, really wants out of the Big 12? Wouldn't a successful challenge to the media rights part of the agreement be the catalyst for a reshuffling of conferences across the country, except for maybe the Pac 12?

Kevin Sherrington: That story comes from our old pal Paul Finebaum, who was really just speculating. As it turns out, I think he's right. Oklahoma wants out, but not necessarily by itself. I think it would like to team up with Texas in a new realignment. The contract expires in 2024, and when that happens, I think we'll see a sea change in college football, and maybe the last one for a long while. I don't think there's any way the Big 12 goes on its present form at that point. The other schools might stay and add the likes of SMU and Houston, but it won't be a Power Five conference anymore.

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...ng-partner

(05-04-2017 04:04 PM)Rob of NV Wrote:  This Coloradoan columnist builds on Paul Finebaum's (ESPN SEC Network) comments made a few days ago on a radio show regarding the demise of the Big 12 Conference. http://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/c...309138001/

I think there's a few points to remember when discussing realignment and the demise of the Big 12.

One, everything revolves around Texas. They're the last big fish in the pond and EVERYONE will be jockeying for position to get them into their conference.

Two, some thing that the GOR and the LHN are big obstacles but remember ANY contract can be broken or renegotiated for the right price.

Three, those conferences where academics matter (PAC & B1G) would gladly swallow their pride and take a Oklahoma if it meant landing Texas.

Four, Kansas needs to hitch it's wagon to Texas because I don't see anyone rushing to add them without the Longhorns. Maybe if they partner with Oklahoma, but that's questionable.

Five, outside of those three, the rest of the Big 12 had better be prepared to accept life in the AAC or form a similar conference on their own.

(05-04-2017 10:58 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  

(05-04-2017 10:25 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Can we all just remember that the Big XII has a GOR for longer than the 5 years Finebaum predicts that OU will bolt. So lets all take a step back and remember that Finebaum is an idiot. No one is leaving the Big XII until right before that GOR expires.

Feinbaum might not be too far off. Any league that wanted to negotiate for some of the Big 12 school properties could do so around the next 5 years and get all of their ducks in a row so that the schools leaving the Big 12 (Texas/Oklahoma) could give the conference ample notice that they are leaving after the 2024/25 season. Five years would put us at the 2022/2023 season. By then the departing schools could already have deals done and only have to give the conference the required notice that they are leaving after the 2024/25 season. This is kind of a stretch but entirely a plausible scenario, imo.

the problem with this is the Big 12 bylaws require a member to notify the conference within 12 days if any 3rd party attempts to have that conference member fail to fulfill their obligations to the conference and it requires that member to provide notice to that 3rd party that they reject that offer

failure to do so can have you voted out of the conference

and while some would say being voted out of the conference would be just what they want

the Big 12 bylaws also set no amount of damages for leaving leaving the conference and and it specifically states that the payment for those damages is not a penalty and it also states that payment for damages is without regard for the continued enforcement of the GOR

now we know at least one member is going to cite the brock landers chest rockwell caselaw from boogie nights and how you can't show people's stuff without paying them, but again the GOR is a separate contract and it affords no payment and has no exit clause for a specific reason

so for a university to leave the Big 12 they need to sit down with a conference, the conference media partners and work everything out in 12 days and give notice to the Big 12 or they have broken yet another part of one of the contracts with the Big 12

and there is no chance that conferences are going to sit down and just work it all out in 12 days

and pretending that you can go to court, hold up the Big 12 bylaws that you willingly signed, tell the judge that you totally ignored the requirement for notification AND DECLINE of an offer by a 3rd party required under the Big 12 bylaws and by the way (if it is even heard in the same judge by the same court or court case) you also no longer are happy with the SEPARATE GOR agreement you signed and you feel the brock landers chest rockwell Vs the world wildlife fund case means the GOR does not hold up

well that is a pretty terrible legal position to be in

hey your honor we willingly signed these two contracts, we ignored major parts of them, we ignored that one contract says we sign over the media rights for no compensation and we were OK with that and we ignore the other contract states that even if we leave and pay damages the GOR stays in place and paying damages is not a penalty and does not nullify the GOR and we conspired to break these contracts without letting the conference know within 12 days a contractually required......but can you please rule in our favor because we feel we have been wronged by failing to live up to multiple parts of two different agreements we were a party to

that is just not a real winners position to be in.....and from the stand point of the other conferences and with media partners (made worse by the fact that these media partners are also partners with the Big 12) working with a new member/current media partner in one conference knowing they are obligated to inform the Big 12 of any attempts to have the member of the Big 12 leave the conference within 12 days of even discussing it and just ignoring that....well that is a great way to have yourself involved in a tampering/collusion lawsuit with untold damages

and again all of that under the backdrop of having no clue if the member you are asking to join will retain their media rights

after all the Big 12 could simply say "ok we will continue to pay you minus the exit fees/damages" and what does the new conference get for their money they get nothing they get no media rights for a number of years

and they probably end up in a major lawsuit along with their media partners.....made all the worse if they drag out discussions beyond 12 days after first discussing it

(05-04-2017 11:27 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  The Longhorns do not play well with others. They could care less, as they will always have a nice landing spot. They are the reason four schools have already left. They will just continue to run the conference until the money dwindles, then bail on the other schools. If OU ever leaves, UT will not be far behind. Some of us know this first hand.

actually all those with a clue know the Texas Texas Texas cries are what NU, MU and A&M use to try and pretend as though they were good conference mates looking out for everyone else before mean evil Texas Texas Texas forced them to leave

at least CU has the balls to simply say they wanted to be in the PAC 12

MU had been blowing the Big 10 for years and after their idiot chancellor or president or AD ran their mouths and NU found out and walked over MU like a used up whore MU was as scared as anyone about where they would end up

and the chancellor of MU has stated it was the boren wallflower comments that finally ran MU off not Texas Texas Texas

and it is a FACT that A&M and NU were NEVER in favor of a Big 12 network PERIOD THE END

and it is well known that even MU was not sure about a Big 12 network

it is a FACT that NU was working harder and faster than Texas Texas Texas to start their own network that is 100% verified by perlman

it is an equally known fact from joe castaquigway at OU that OU claims they had beeen working on an OU network from at least 2007 if not before that

or as he was quoted in 2012....."we have been working on the sooner sports network for well over 5 years"

and it is a well known fact from your fav chancellor at MU by way of A&M bowtie loftin the untruthful that A&M turned down a network with Texas Texas Texas and he also states that A&M was fully committed to the Big 12......about 9 months before they left

so knowing that NU, A&M, and OU were fully against a Big 12 network and that MU and KU were very unsure about it and that MU had been blowing the Big 10 for years and that the chancellor of MU stated it was the boren wallflower comments and the inability of the MU "leadership" to get in contact with ou at that time.....well it would be impossible for anyone "in the know" to blame Texas Texas Texas for MU,NU and A&M leaving the Big 12

because all irrefutable facts and statements directly from those in charge say different

(05-04-2017 10:53 PM)Hood-rich Wrote:  AAC gets picked apart. That's what happens.

This. P4, Big 12 is the new 'tweener, and everyone else can reorganize geographically into 4 or 5 'group of' conferences.

(05-05-2017 07:32 AM)TerryD Wrote:  From SportsDay.DallasNews.com:

How much faith do you have in the story that OU really, really wants out of the Big 12? Wouldn't a successful challenge to the media rights part of the agreement be the catalyst for a reshuffling of conferences across the country, except for maybe the Pac 12?

Kevin Sherrington: That story comes from our old pal Paul Finebaum, who was really just speculating. As it turns out, I think he's right. Oklahoma wants out, but not necessarily by itself. I think it would like to team up with Texas in a new realignment. The contract expires in 2024, and when that happens, I think we'll see a sea change in college football, and maybe the last one for a long while. I don't think there's any way the Big 12 goes on its present form at that point. The other schools might stay and add the likes of SMU and Houston, but it won't be a Power Five conference anymore.

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college...ng-partner

Only quibble I have, is that historically these things happen just ahead of the expiration of a contract. Pretty much anyone desiring a top Big XII as a member of their conference is willing to deal with a year or two the school's rights belonging to another league.

(05-05-2017 07:52 AM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(05-04-2017 10:53 PM)Hood-rich Wrote:  AAC gets picked apart. That's what happens.

This. P4, Big 12 is the new 'tweener, and everyone else can reorganize geographically into 4 or 5 'group of' conferences.

The sooner this happens the better. Let the rest of us play college football.

My gut tells me that OU ends up in the SEC, Texas heads to the ACC (joining ND as an associate member, allowing them to keep the LHN), and Kansas to the BTN.

The biggest questions I have are:

If OU heads to the SEC (and Texas to the ACC) who else does the SEC take? My guess would be OSU or TCU.

Similarly, who would the BTN aim for to come along w/ Kansas? This one is more difficult to answer because of their pension for AAU programs. KSU, ISU, and OSU (if available) would all make sense for different reasons.

What happens to those left behind? Would PTV have any interest in TTU? I don't know if they'd be interested in Baylor at this point. Does the Big 12 fold and get rolled into the AAC or vice versa?

(05-04-2017 10:25 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  Can we all just remember that the Big XII has a GOR for longer than the 5 years Finebaum predicts that OU will bolt. So lets all take a step back and remember that Finebaum is an idiot. No one is leaving the Big XII until right before that GOR expires.

This

(05-05-2017 08:37 AM)3BNole Wrote:  Similarly, who would the BTN aim for to come along w/ Kansas? This one is more difficult to answer because of their pension for AAU programs. KSU, ISU, and OSU (if available) would all make sense for different reasons.

Missouri. Not kidding. The SEC doesn't have a GOR and the B10 is where Missouri wanted to be originally. They're also a better cultural fit there.
SEC would be down to 13 members. They'd add Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and WVU/TCU and call it a day. All of thosee are better fits for the SEC than Missouri is.