Looking ahead, all the conference games the rest of the way can be critical, but there are some really key series coming up for the top four that will undoubtedly shape the tournament seedings.

5/5 - 5/7
FAU @ USM

5/18 - 5/20
ODU @ FAU

FAU also has a series remaining with FIU as does ODU, and certainly the Panthers are primed to play some havoc with the leaders.

It appears that FAU has the toughest remaining conference schedule of the top four, and Charlotte appears to have the easiest go the rest of the way. However, Charlotte does have a series with Rice and another with UTSA remaining, and I am sure both the birds are itching to knock off one of the top runners. I also think USM's series at UTSA could prove challenging for the Golden Eagles.

With USM, UTSA and Rice still on the table, I just don't see Middle Tennessee getting to the tournament. Looks to me like WKU and UAB will also miss the trip to Hattiesburg.

Marshall still has a series on the road at ODU and another at LA Tech. They may find it hard to hold on and allow Rice slip into eighth just in time for yet another tournament.

And -- Lord only knows how LA Tech will come out of its last nine games, but I would not be surprised to see them take all three remaining series against FIU, WKU, and Marshall to go into the tournament on a roll.

Just for S&G, this is the way I see it shaping up.

1. USM
2. ODU
3. Charlotte
4. FAU
5. FIU
6. LA Tech
7. UTSA
8. Rice

All in all, a lot of baseball yet to go, and it looks like we're going to have a lot of fun.

Rice is currently 7-11 in conference with series vs. UTSA, @Charlotte, MTSU, @UAB.

History tells us that 14 wins WILL get you in, and that you've got a shot at 13.

Theoretically, I think Rice should be able to get 7 more wins to get to 14.

I see us taking 2/3 vs. MTSU (they're terrible on the mound and we've pounced on bad pitching well) and @UAB. If we sweep one of those teams, better yet.

Assuming the above holds true, we need to go 3-3 vs. UTSA and @Charlotte. I think we can do that. 2/3 at home vs. UTSA this weekend seems doable, especially given that we're above .500 in our last 10. 1/3 is manageable @Charlotte. We took a game from LA Tech, USM, and FAU so I don't see why we can't do the same vs. the 49ers.

My seeding predictions are as follows:

1) USM
2) ODU
3) Charlotte
4) FAU
5) LA Tech
6) FIU
7) Rice
8) UTSA

(04-26-2017 11:14 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  Just for S&G, this is the way I see it shaping up.

1. USM
2. ODU
3. Charlotte
4. FAU
5. FIU
6. LA Tech
7. UTSA
8. Rice

All in all, a lot of baseball yet to go, and it looks like we're going to have a lot of fun.

Agree that in the double elimination format, it may not matter as much who gets the 1-4 seeds, as who makes the final cut in the 6-8 seeds. Neither Louisiana Tech nor Rice will feel like a gimmee opening game for their opponent.

When do we start saying who is going to Biloxi? Even before the sweep this past weekend in Bowling Green, we committed to the time off work and made reservations at the Golden Nugget. Now just need the Owls to get there. I would like to see another shot at Old Dominion in our opening game.

I definitely would rather be matched up with Charlotte and ODU as the top teams on our side of the bracket compared to say USM and FAU.

USM just hits the ball so well that I don't see us beating them with our staff.

Though ODU swept us, every game was close. Charlotte just doesn't intimidate me too, too much due to their lack of big game experience.

Current standings going into this weekend as well as remaining opponents. Rankings do NOT reflect tiebreakers that may be involved...i simply went with higher RPI as with 4 weeks remaining there's still plenty of baseball to play

1 - USM (13-5) - @MT, FAU, UAB, @UTSA
2 - ODU (12-6) - Marshall, @UAB, FIU, @FAU
2 - Charlotte (12-6) - @UAB, Rice, UTSA, @Marshall
2 - FAU (12-6) - FIU, @USM, @WKU, ODU
5 - FIU (10-8) - @FAU, LT, @ODU, WKU
6 - UTSA (9-9) - @Rice, MT, @Charlotte, USM
7 - La Tech (8-10) - WKU, @FIU, Marshall, @MT
7 - Marshall (8-10) - @ODU, WKU, @LT, Charlotte
------cut off for Biloxi--------
9 - Rice (7-11) - UTSA, @Charlotte, MT, @UAB
9 - MT (7-11) - USM, @UTSA, @Rice, LT
11 - UAB (6-12) - Charlotte, ODU, @USM, Rice
12 - WKU (4-14) - @LT, @Marshall, FIU, @FAU

Looking at USM's schedule. UTSA has TTT all over it. Kinda like last year's series at FIU where we blew the regular season title/hosting in epic fashion.

Like our chances to sweep MTSU, just because their pitching staff is atrocious (1.9 team WHIP, 7+ team ERA) so we should just be able to outscore them even if our pitching isn't great. FAU worries me, but it's in Hattiesburg. UAB usually ruins everything for us, but that's still a series we should sweep. Lowery is their Friday starter now though and he's given us fits in the past.

If we're in the 1-8 game, I'd rather not play Rice. Much rather Marshall or UTSA.

Of course, USM is pretty much locked into a 2 seed in a regional, so the conference tournament really doesn't mean all that much for us. Would be fun to win, yeah, but I'm not gonna complain that much if we go 1-2/2-2.

(04-26-2017 01:47 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  Of course, USM is pretty much locked into a 2 seed in a regional, so the conference tournament really doesn't mean all that much for us. Would be fun to win, yeah, but I'm not gonna complain that much if we go 1-2/2-2.

We have a chance to win the regular and tournament Championships. I want them both!

My guess. Very tough to predict this.

1) USM: 22-8 (sweep MTSU, 2/3 vs FAU, sweep UAB, 1/3 at UTSA)
2) FAU: 20-10 (2/3 vs FIU, 1/3 at USM, sweep WKU, 2/3 vs ODU)
3) Charlotte: 20-10 (2/3 at UAB, 2/3 vs Rice, 2/3 vs UTSA, 2/3 at Marshall)
4) ODU: 19-11 (2/3 vs Marshall, 2/3 at UAB, 2/3 vs FIU, 1/3 at FAU)
5) Louisiana Tech: 17-13 (sweep WKU, 2/3 at FIU, 2/3 vs Marshall, 2/3 at MTSU)
6) FIU: 16-14 (1/3 at FIU, 1/3 vs LaTech, 1/3 at ODU, sweep WKU)
7) Rice: 15-15 (2/3 vs UTSA, 1/3 at Charlotte, sweep MTSU, 2/3 at UAB)
8) UTSA: 15-15 (1/3 at Rice, 2/3 vs MTSU, 1/3 at Charlotte, 2/3 vs USM)
------
9) Marshall: 13-17 (1/3 at ODU, 2/3 vs WKU, 1/3 at LaTech, 1/3 vs Charlotte)
10) MTSU: 9-21 (swept by USM, 1/3 at UTSA, swept by Rice, 1/3 vs LaTech)
11) UAB: 9-21 (1/3 vs Charlotte, 1/3 vs ODU, swept by USM, 1/3 vs Rice)
12) WKU: 6-24 (swept by LaTech, 1/3 at Marshall, swept by FAU, 1/3 at FIU)

1) USM vs 8) UTSA
4) ODU vs 5) LaTech

2) FAU vs 7) Rice
3) Charlotte vs 6) FIU

(04-26-2017 01:13 PM)ESE84 Wrote:  

(04-26-2017 11:14 AM)ODU AGGIE Wrote:  Just for S&G, this is the way I see it shaping up.

1. USM
2. ODU
3. Charlotte
4. FAU
5. FIU
6. LA Tech
7. UTSA
8. Rice

All in all, a lot of baseball yet to go, and it looks like we're going to have a lot of fun.

Agree that in the double elimination format, it may not matter as much who gets the 1-4 seeds, as who makes the final cut in the 6-8 seeds. Neither Louisiana Tech nor Rice will feel like a gimmee opening game for their opponent.

When do we start saying who is going to Biloxi? Even before the sweep this past weekend in Bowling Green, we committed to the time off work and made reservations at the Golden Nugget. Now just need the Owls to get there. I would like to see another shot at Old Dominion in our opening game.

Assuming we (Rice) make the tournament, I'm pretty sure I'll head down to Biloxi, which is much, MUCH more convenient travel wise to get to.

(04-26-2017 04:23 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Assuming we (Rice) make the tournament, I'm pretty sure I'll head down to Biloxi, which is much, MUCH more convenient travel wise to get to.

Flying into Hattiesburg isn't convenient? /sarcasm

We have direct flights to and from Dallas and now Chicago. #bigtime

(04-26-2017 02:08 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  My guess. Very tough to predict this.

2) FAU: 20-10 (2/3 vs FIU, 1/3 at USM, sweep WKU, 2/3 vs ODU)
...
12) WKU: 6-24 (swept by LaTech, 1/3 at Marshall, swept by FAU, 1/3 at FIU)

FIFY

Ha, thanks. Obviously, WKU can't be swept by WKU.

(04-26-2017 01:47 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  Looking at USM's schedule. UTSA has TTT all over it. Kinda like last year's series at FIU where we blew the regular season title/hosting in epic fashion.

Like our chances to sweep MTSU, just because their pitching staff is atrocious (1.9 team WHIP, 7+ team ERA) so we should just be able to outscore them even if our pitching isn't great. FAU worries me, but it's in Hattiesburg. UAB usually ruins everything for us, but that's still a series we should sweep. Lowery is their Friday starter now though and he's given us fits in the past.

If we're in the 1-8 game, I'd rather not play Rice. Much rather Marshall or UTSA.

Of course, USM is pretty much locked into a 2 seed in a regional, so the conference tournament really doesn't mean all that much for us. Would be fun to win, yeah, but I'm not gonna complain that much if we go 1-2/2-2.

all things being equal, we 'should' win 7 of 9 going to utsa....

regardless, we're not going to host a regional....therefore, my take is we figure out the late season lineup from here and let everyone understand their role heading to whatever regional we attend.....

that's my druthers.....

(04-26-2017 09:59 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(04-26-2017 01:47 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  Looking at USM's schedule. UTSA has TTT all over it. Kinda like last year's series at FIU where we blew the regular season title/hosting in epic fashion.

Like our chances to sweep MTSU, just because their pitching staff is atrocious (1.9 team WHIP, 7+ team ERA) so we should just be able to outscore them even if our pitching isn't great. FAU worries me, but it's in Hattiesburg. UAB usually ruins everything for us, but that's still a series we should sweep. Lowery is their Friday starter now though and he's given us fits in the past.

If we're in the 1-8 game, I'd rather not play Rice. Much rather Marshall or UTSA.

Of course, USM is pretty much locked into a 2 seed in a regional, so the conference tournament really doesn't mean all that much for us. Would be fun to win, yeah, but I'm not gonna complain that much if we go 1-2/2-2.

all things being equal, we 'should' win 7 of 9 going to utsa....

regardless, we're not going to host a regional....therefore, my take is we figure out the late season lineup from here and let everyone understand their role heading to whatever regional we attend.....

that's my druthers.....

You say you won't, but the reality is that if USM went 10-3 or better down the stretch and won the conference tourney, you'd most likely host.

The only bloodbath of a series y'all have RPI wise is UAB at home but even that is somewhat muted as they're only 4 games under .500.

If you win the FAU series and the @UTSA series, those will be huge boosts.

(04-26-2017 01:28 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I definitely would rather be matched up with Charlotte and ODU as the top teams on our side of the bracket compared to say USM and FAU.

USM just hits the ball so well that I don't see us beating them with our staff.

Though ODU swept us, every game was close. Charlotte just doesn't intimidate me too, too much due to their lack of big game experience.

Note to self, come back here on May 7

(04-26-2017 10:02 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  

(04-26-2017 09:59 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(04-26-2017 01:47 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  Looking at USM's schedule. UTSA has TTT all over it. Kinda like last year's series at FIU where we blew the regular season title/hosting in epic fashion.

Like our chances to sweep MTSU, just because their pitching staff is atrocious (1.9 team WHIP, 7+ team ERA) so we should just be able to outscore them even if our pitching isn't great. FAU worries me, but it's in Hattiesburg. UAB usually ruins everything for us, but that's still a series we should sweep. Lowery is their Friday starter now though and he's given us fits in the past.

If we're in the 1-8 game, I'd rather not play Rice. Much rather Marshall or UTSA.

Of course, USM is pretty much locked into a 2 seed in a regional, so the conference tournament really doesn't mean all that much for us. Would be fun to win, yeah, but I'm not gonna complain that much if we go 1-2/2-2.

all things being equal, we 'should' win 7 of 9 going to utsa....

regardless, we're not going to host a regional....therefore, my take is we figure out the late season lineup from here and let everyone understand their role heading to whatever regional we attend.....

that's my druthers.....

You say you won't, but the reality is that if USM went 10-3 or better down the stretch and won the conference tourney, you'd most likely host.

The only bloodbath of a series y'all have RPI wise is UAB at home but even that is somewhat muted as they're only 4 games under .500.

If you win the FAU series and the @UTSA series, those will be huge boosts.

I'm with you IF we win the tourney.....that's why I intentionally didn't include that part of the equation....IF we can do that AND win the tourney, it's plausible....

having said that, I know how baseball can play out.....and the 4 teams at the top are solid....

we have to get our brain screwed back into place...it's the beauty of the sport playing out over the long haul....baseball and hockey.....I can't get enough of either...

(04-26-2017 10:03 PM)Nugget49er Wrote:  

(04-26-2017 01:28 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I definitely would rather be matched up with Charlotte and ODU as the top teams on our side of the bracket compared to say USM and FAU.

USM just hits the ball so well that I don't see us beating them with our staff.

Though ODU swept us, every game was close. Charlotte just doesn't intimidate me too, too much due to their lack of big game experience.

Note to self, come back here on May 7

In the first reply to this thread, I predicted that we only take 1/3 from y'all next week. I think Charlotte has a good team this year.

I'm just speaking relative to USM and FAU, who have made regionals the past couple years, Charlotte is not as intimidating in a do or die scenario.

(04-26-2017 10:02 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  You say you won't, but the reality is that if USM went 10-3 or better down the stretch and won the conference tourney, you'd most likely host.

The only bloodbath of a series y'all have RPI wise is UAB at home but even that is somewhat muted as they're only 4 games under .500.

If you win the FAU series and the @UTSA series, those will be huge boosts.

Don't believe we will have the weekend Ws. We don't have a series win over a sure-fire regional team (though I think LaTech will end up in the NCAAs).

RPI is actually sitting at #26, we were as low as #34 yesterday before the win at USA. 6-6 vs top 50, with USA just outside. If they could sneak in, that'd put us at 8-6.

I don't know. I totally wrote off our hosting chances after this weekend. If we go on a tear and finish like 10-3/11-2 we might could get back in the mix.

Would probably require:

A) top 18 RPI (only sitting .06 points outside that now, which can easily be made up, especially with a month to go)
B) CUSA regular season/tournament champions
C) 10-6/11-6 record vs top 50 (basically all our opponents that are T50 now stay there, USA jumps in, and 2-3 games vs T50 in Biloxi that we win)

All of these things happen and there'd at least be a non-zero chance. Still think lack of legit weekend series wins will hamper us though.

It could honestly be a situation where either FAU gets in the tournament because of a series win vs. USM or USM gets a host spot because of a series win vs. USM. Both probably can't happen (unless USM went undefeated for the rest of the regular season and lost in the tournament and FAU won tourney).

As crappy as this sounds, I hope FAU gets left out of the tourney so they learn their lesson re: non-conference scheduling. No excuse to have the #148 OOC when you're in South Florida.

(04-26-2017 11:14 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  

(04-26-2017 10:02 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  You say you won't, but the reality is that if USM went 10-3 or better down the stretch and won the conference tourney, you'd most likely host.

The only bloodbath of a series y'all have RPI wise is UAB at home but even that is somewhat muted as they're only 4 games under .500.

If you win the FAU series and the @UTSA series, those will be huge boosts.

Don't believe we will have the weekend Ws. We don't have a series win over a sure-fire regional team (though I think LaTech will end up in the NCAAs).

RPI is actually sitting at #26, we were as low as #34 yesterday before the win at USA. 6-6 vs top 50, with USA just outside. If they could sneak in, that'd put us at 8-6.

I don't know. I totally wrote off our hosting chances after this weekend. If we go on a tear and finish like 10-3/11-2 we might could get back in the mix.

Would probably require:

A) top 18 RPI (only sitting .06 points outside that now, which can easily be made up, especially with a month to go)
B) CUSA regular season/tournament champions
C) 10-6/11-6 record vs top 50 (basically all our opponents that are T50 now stay there, USA jumps in, and 2-3 games vs T50 in Biloxi that we win)

All of these things happen and there'd at least be a non-zero chance. Still think lack of legit weekend series wins will hamper us though.

Good take.

It's not impossible. But the margin of error is probably far too thin to realistically expect from a team with our starting pitching issues. We can't outslug everyone...even a pretty average lineup like this past weekend.

Beyond that, we would need help. RPI can get there. The problem is Top 50. ODU, Ole miss, or ULL falling back out of top 50 would be nice with USA moving in.

Personally, I'm not even going to worry about hosting. Too skeptical of Berry Ball. One regional in five years and we may be two bad weekends away from being a bubble team. I'm not taking making the tourney as a given yet.