Jack Ossoff will reach a climax in the polls days before the election, but will be unable to repeat that performance so shortly afterwards. Libturds will be washing their hands of the residue his failed campaign leave behind.

(05-29-2017 11:24 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(05-29-2017 10:29 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(05-29-2017 09:42 PM)solohawks Wrote:  37 million for a seat up again in a year. Insane

Even if dems win they won't hold in 18.

Even if the Dems lose, they'll be taking over in January 2019 in the House, in my estimation.

Remember, voters who voted for a new President aren't likely to bail on him for at least 9 months.

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There's a reason why everyone is spending like crazy on this election....because if the GOP loses it,...it will lead to a mass of retirements on the GOP side.

I don't see the dem winning men. That doesn't make any sense. The WSB poll earlier in the month had the GOP with a 3.5 lead. That sounds about right. I know they are different companies but an 11 point swing in a month is nuts for congressional race where neither candidate did anything of note

But remember, even in partisan races, its hard for someone to make up 28 points in a runoff. All it takes is for a few people who supported another candidate to decide they really don't care about the person who beat their candidate to not show up to get the candidate who was far in front to win.

I think 51-44 sounds about right. Ossoff could lose (in a district that Trump won - albeit barely - and that has a R+8 voter id). It will be close, but I think Ossoff is in front right now.

Voter turnout SHOULD be high, which also usually helps Democrats.

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We will see on this one. If the GOP wins it, unlike in Montana or Kansas, I'll be disappointed.

But muh Nate

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This is going to be a fun meltdown to watch.

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(05-29-2017 11:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  Local polls had Clinton winning Georgia. Even the local Dems knew that was nonsense. WSB is just not a reliable poll.

Race probably will be close.

WSB had the GOPer winning at the beginning of May by 3.5. Survey USA had the Dem winning by 7 in an 10.5 point difference from 3 weeks ago.

Someone is very wrong because neither of these bodyslammed a reporter and not much has changed this month.

I could see the Dem winning because of how much money and effort it being put into the district and the fact it is a special election. Special elections are wildcards as you never know who is going to show up.

(05-30-2017 07:09 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  This is going to be a fun meltdown to watch.

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There will be no meltdown... This will follow the pattern

1 - Special election announced
2 - Libs throw the kitchen sink at the election
3 - Libs say "we can flip this! It's a mandate on trump"
4 - Polls widen
5 - Libs say "even if this is close its a victory for us"
6 - Election happens, seat is won by a good margin for the incumbent
7 - Libs say "this was really more a local election than a national one.... But the next one!
8 - goto 1

(05-30-2017 08:14 AM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(05-30-2017 07:09 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  This is going to be a fun meltdown to watch.

Sent from my SM-J700T using CSNbbs mobile app

There will be no meltdown... This will follow the pattern

1 - Special election announced
2 - Libs throw the kitchen sink at the election
3 - Libs say "we can flip this! It's a mandate on trump"
4 - Polls widen
5 - Libs say "even if this is close its a victory for us"
6 - Election happens, seat is won by a good margin for the incumbent
7 - Libs say "this was really more a local election than a national one.... But the next one!
8 - goto 1

No. This is a national election. But lets be clear here. The Dems are trying to see if they can flip a GOP held seat in a GOP district, not a GOP held seat in a Dem district.

For me, the question is this....can the Dems, just 160 days into Trump's Presidency, pull off a district that historically was out of reach for them.

The Dems wouldn't be pouring that kind of money they have into the district if they didn't feel that they were in the running.

(05-30-2017 09:25 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(05-30-2017 08:14 AM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  

(05-30-2017 07:09 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  This is going to be a fun meltdown to watch.

Sent from my SM-J700T using CSNbbs mobile app

There will be no meltdown... This will follow the pattern

1 - Special election announced
2 - Libs throw the kitchen sink at the election
3 - Libs say "we can flip this! It's a mandate on trump"
4 - Polls widen
5 - Libs say "even if this is close its a victory for us"
6 - Election happens, seat is won by a good margin for the incumbent
7 - Libs say "this was really more a local election than a national one.... But the next one!
8 - goto 1

No. This is a national election. But lets be clear here. The Dems are trying to see if they can flip a GOP held seat in a GOP district, not a GOP held seat in a Dem district.

For me, the question is this....can the Dems, just 160 days into Trump's Presidency, pull off a district that historically was out of reach for them.

The Dems wouldn't be pouring that kind of money they have into the district if they didn't feel that they were in the running.

They are in the running, but them pouring money into the district doesn't prove it. Hillary poured money into Georgia too. So did they with Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn two years ago. Hillary, Jason and Michelle were never in the running.

So the election will be over in 4 days. Looks close -- some polls show a tie, others a slight (4-6 pts.) lead for Ossoff. Even assuming (as I do not) that the polls were conducted in good faith, I still think it is extremely difficult/expensive to get an accurate/reliable read on the voting intentions of one particular congressional district, for a state that has 14 districts.

My guess -- and it's nothing more than that, so I don't claim any special insight if it turns out to be correct -- is that Handel wins 53-47. I think Ossoff holds the district's voting-% for Clinton (46.8) but does not expand beyond that. We shall see.

http://hotair.com/archives/2017/04/18/gr...s-earlier/

At least 128k ballots have already been cast, and that doesn't count people who voted Friday/16th.

Compare that to a total turnout (early voting + Election Day) of 193k for the primary in April.

(06-16-2017 11:31 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  At least 128k ballots have already been cast, and that doesn't count people who voted Friday/16th.

Compare that to a total turnout (early voting + Election Day) of 193k for the primary in April.

How many of those ballots were from living georgians? Lol

I live just outside GA-06. FWIW I've heard from two Republican sources, a friend who is also my state rep and another who is a Republican consultant in DC, that Handel's internal polling numbers are causing concern within the GOP. Trump barely won the district and is currently in the mid 40s favorable in the internal polls which is providing headwinds for her. Handel isn't a particularly strong candidate and has a history of losing which doesn't help. Doesn't mean she can't win, but it's going to be close, and an Ossoff win wouldn't be a great surprise at this point. Either way I'll just be happy to be able to turn on the TV and not see campaign ads.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/19...ats-239698

Democrats worry about a loss's impact on them nationally.

"...According to Democrats close to the contest, the high early voting turnout has rendered Tuesday’s result less predictable than expected. And that unpredictability has party leaders — stung by criticism from liberal activists for not spending enough money on earlier special elections this year in Kansas and Montana — urging activists not to be disappointed by a tight race that ends in defeat.
Their concern is that anything less than victory could dampen the party’s torrid energy and cash flow, with the next round of House races still nearly a year-and-a-half away....

With the race turning away from its early framing as a referendum on Trump, Democratic operatives have instead looked closely at Ossoff’s campaign for clues about messaging that other Democrats might emulate next year. That’s been a sensitive exercise: Democratic establishment strategists fret that the party’s liberal insurgent wing will take an Ossoff loss as evidence that candidates need a clearer, Bernie Sanders-like message of economic populism, while progressive leaders worry an Ossoff win could encourage the party to recruit more moderates...."

If democrats cant win this race, they are in deep ****. There is no other way to spin it. They are in deep deep ****.

If you were to go on straight ad time. Ossify would win in a landslide. I see 6 ads for every 1 of handles.

I'm ready for his shat to be over

Election date is this week right?

(06-19-2017 09:52 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  If democrats cant win this race, they are in deep ****. There is no other way to spin it. They are in deep deep ****.

Yep. Watching them spend eleventy million dollars to win an atlanta seat against a mediocre handel is sad. Like watching bama beat murray state on a bad call.

I think the Dems win this race and will make out like it is a huge deal. I guess we will see in 2018 if that is the case. If the Dems don't win this race, then 2018 will be another disaster for them.

After watching the Clinton Campaign fiasco and these post november special elections, I believe we can safely conclude that throwing more money at a "problem" does not fix the "problem".