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Legend
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04-15-2017 09:50 AM |
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LeFlâneur
Banned
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RE: 2018 election prospects
(04-15-2017 09:50 AM)bullet Wrote: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/44...use-senate
Analysis looks pretty favorable for the Republicans at this point. As it notes, a lot can happen in two years.
The time frame is actually a little more than a year. By June 2018, the "legislatin' gona be did."
(This post was last modified: 04-15-2017 10:13 AM by LeFlâneur.)
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04-15-2017 10:11 AM |
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UofMstateU
Legend
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RE: 2018 election prospects
This paragraph sums up these special elections nicely:
Having lost in Kansas, the media are now moving on to their next anti-GOP obsession, a special election in Georgia’s sixth district, traditionally Republican, but very unfavorable to Trump (the 48 percent he took there trailed Romney’s 2012 showing by twelve percentage points). Again, the media is pushing a message that is the opposite of the reality on the ground — the notion that a GOP defeat here would be a sign of GOP doom in 2018. The exact opposite is the case — if the Dems can’t win this seat, with their candidate having a massive spending advantage, a divided GOP field, and one of the most Trump-unfriendly GOP districts in the country, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which they would have enough momentum to run the table and win the House in 2018.
I dont think the lamestream media gets it. These two special elections are where the democrats SHOULD do well. Kansas and Georgia are scenarios that should be bad for the republicans. The democrats have already whiffed on one. If they lose Georgia, what it means is that while the democrats have no problem generating huge spending funds, they are incredibly inept at how to effectively spend those funds, and are likely as inept at putting up candidates who can win.
If the democrats lose Georgia, it points to an issue where they may have problems picking up seats in the house at all in 2018.
It is almost a given, sans anything incredibly stupid by the republicans, that republicans pick up seats in the senate. In fact, I'd say there's about as equal of chance democrats win the majority as it is that republicans get to 60.
(This post was last modified: 04-15-2017 10:50 AM by UofMstateU.)
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04-15-2017 10:49 AM |
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Machiavelli
Back to Reality. Oh there goes Gravity
Posts: 25,357
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RE: 2018 election prospects
Senate is staying Red. Don't see them getting to 60 but the map is extremely favorable to them.
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04-15-2017 03:15 PM |
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Love and Honor
Skipper
Posts: 6,919
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RE: 2018 election prospects
The only post-WWII presidents whose party didn't suffer House and Senate losses in their first midterm election were Democrats adding a few more Senate seats under JFK in 1962, Republicans shrinking the Democratic Senate majority under Nixon in 1970, Republicans adding a couple senators under Reagan in 1982, and Republicans flipping the Senate and adding a few more House seats under Bush in 2002. That's twelve midterms, and the president's party has only improved their numbers in five of twenty-four total chamber elections. History doesn't favor the GOP, but then again most midterms don't have the kind of reelection slant against the minority party that the Democrats will be up against.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c...Senate.png
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04-15-2017 04:31 PM |
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DavidSt
Hall of Famer
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RE: 2018 election prospects
(04-15-2017 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote: This paragraph sums up these special elections nicely:
Having lost in Kansas, the media are now moving on to their next anti-GOP obsession, a special election in Georgia’s sixth district, traditionally Republican, but very unfavorable to Trump (the 48 percent he took there trailed Romney’s 2012 showing by twelve percentage points). Again, the media is pushing a message that is the opposite of the reality on the ground — the notion that a GOP defeat here would be a sign of GOP doom in 2018. The exact opposite is the case — if the Dems can’t win this seat, with their candidate having a massive spending advantage, a divided GOP field, and one of the most Trump-unfriendly GOP districts in the country, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which they would have enough momentum to run the table and win the House in 2018.
I dont think the lamestream media gets it. These two special elections are where the democrats SHOULD do well. Kansas and Georgia are scenarios that should be bad for the republicans. The democrats have already whiffed on one. If they lose Georgia, what it means is that while the democrats have no problem generating huge spending funds, they are incredibly inept at how to effectively spend those funds, and are likely as inept at putting up candidates who can win.
If the democrats lose Georgia, it points to an issue where they may have problems picking up seats in the house at all in 2018.
It is almost a given, sans anything incredibly stupid by the republicans, that republicans pick up seats in the senate. In fact, I'd say there's about as equal of chance democrats win the majority as it is that republicans get to 60.
The Dem running for that seat is a complete outsider who was never elected to anything or having any voting record. There is a chance that he could win because the Republican candidate is an establishment person.
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04-16-2017 02:56 AM |
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bubbapt
Uh, what?
Posts: 12,894
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RE: 2018 election prospects
At this time in 2015, we were talking about how folks hoped Jeb Bush would run, how Mrs. Clinton would be unapposed for the nomination, and how Republicans would never be more vulnerable in the Senate.
And Donald Trump was still the guy who fired Dary Busey.
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04-16-2017 07:17 AM |
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rath v2.0
Wartime Consigliere
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RE: 2018 election prospects
(04-16-2017 02:56 AM)DavidSt Wrote: (04-15-2017 10:49 AM)UofMstateU Wrote: This paragraph sums up these special elections nicely:
Having lost in Kansas, the media are now moving on to their next anti-GOP obsession, a special election in Georgia’s sixth district, traditionally Republican, but very unfavorable to Trump (the 48 percent he took there trailed Romney’s 2012 showing by twelve percentage points). Again, the media is pushing a message that is the opposite of the reality on the ground — the notion that a GOP defeat here would be a sign of GOP doom in 2018. The exact opposite is the case — if the Dems can’t win this seat, with their candidate having a massive spending advantage, a divided GOP field, and one of the most Trump-unfriendly GOP districts in the country, it is hard to imagine a scenario in which they would have enough momentum to run the table and win the House in 2018.
I dont think the lamestream media gets it. These two special elections are where the democrats SHOULD do well. Kansas and Georgia are scenarios that should be bad for the republicans. The democrats have already whiffed on one. If they lose Georgia, what it means is that while the democrats have no problem generating huge spending funds, they are incredibly inept at how to effectively spend those funds, and are likely as inept at putting up candidates who can win.
If the democrats lose Georgia, it points to an issue where they may have problems picking up seats in the house at all in 2018.
It is almost a given, sans anything incredibly stupid by the republicans, that republicans pick up seats in the senate. In fact, I'd say there's about as equal of chance democrats win the majority as it is that republicans get to 60.
The Dem running for that seat is a complete outsider who was never elected to anything or having any voting record. There is a chance that he could win because the Republican candidate is an establishment person.
Hillary is +4 in GA! Max says so!
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04-16-2017 09:13 AM |
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TigerBlue4Ever
Unapologetic A-hole
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RE: 2018 election prospects
(04-16-2017 07:17 AM)bubbapt Wrote: At this time in 2015, we were talking about how folks hoped Jeb Bush would run, how Mrs. Clinton would be unapposed for the nomination, and how Republicans would never be more vulnerable in the Senate.
And Donald Trump was still the guy who fired Dary Busey.
Any relation to Gary?
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04-16-2017 10:55 AM |
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