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SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #31
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
(04-10-2017 06:16 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(04-10-2017 04:27 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(04-09-2017 08:41 PM)Wedge Wrote:  $200 million is what the would-be San Diego MLS team owners say their stadium (which they proposed to share with SDSU football) would cost. I suppose that's reasonable if it's designed as a 30,000-seat MLS stadium. The San Jose MLS stadium, opened in 2015, seats 18,000 and cost $100 million to build. But SDSU apparently wants a stadium it will control itself (and, I'm guessing, thinks that being a subtenant in a soccer stadium would make SDSU football look small-time).

The better measure is Colorado State's new football stadium that opens this fall. CSU built the stadium on its own campus, so they didn't have to buy land. It has 36,000 seats and cost $220 million. Given the higher construction costs in California, it would likely cost about 50% more ($330 million total) to build the same stadium in San Diego. And AFAIK, SDSU doesn't currently have room on its campus, or any other land they own, to build a stadium.

First, SDSU thinks the 30,000 seat stadium is inadequate for FBS football.

Second, that $200 million doesn't count land costs. They're counting on the city giving them the entire Qualcomm site at "fair market value" (as determined in the future by a "neutral 3rd party" which sounds bogus).

Third, a lot of folks think the whole MLS stadium is a ruse for the development group behind the proposal to get there hands on the entire 166 acre Qualcomm site. I'd tend to agree because the proposal also includes 5000 condos, 2 million sq ft of office (equal to 1/7th of downtown San Diego), and 750k sq ft of retail (equal to a large shopping mall).

If they want to develop the rest of the land to justify the cost of paying for both a stadium and a huge MLS expansion fee, that would make sense. I wouldn't expect someone spending over $350 million on a stadium plus a team to just sink in that money without making some of it back in some way. Can't make that kind of money back just by selling tickets and jerseys.

SDSU's objection isn't to the proposed number of seats. If it was, then they would say, "We will support the project if the stadium has 40,000 seats." But that's not the message, from what I've read. So a reasonable assumption is that SDSU thinks they can find a place for their football team either by having the city or someone else build it, or by playing on public sentiment to get the Padres owners to let SDSU use Petco Park indefinitely. Time will tell if they're right.

Other MLS owners are putting up the expansion fee themselves. There's no reason the city should subsidize that, particularly when MLS desperately wants to be in San Diego.

The # of seats actually is a big deal. MLS is pretty adamant that they don't want a lot of empty seats. The developers placed an "option" in the contract to expand to 40,000 seats in the future, but it's "subject to approval by MLS," and the speculation is that MLS will automatically say no.

But you're right that SDSU objects to more than just the number of seats. They also object to chipping in $100 million towards a stadium they won't control.

And you're also right that SDSU is trying to use their political clout to get more than they're paying for. That's largely because there's been a lot of public talk about just giving SDSU the whole Qualcomm site to use for a campus expansion. That scenario is much, much more beneficial to SDSU than the SoccerCity proposal. So SDSU is probably doing everything they can to kill SoccerCity, and they don't want SDSU football's stadium needs to be used by politicians as a reason to approve SoccerCity.
04-11-2017 12:26 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #32
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
OK, if there is a real possibility of SDSU getting the entire property, whether they pay for it or get it free, then it makes sense to hold out for that.
04-11-2017 12:44 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
(04-11-2017 12:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  OK, if there is a real possibility of SDSU getting the entire property, whether they pay for it or get it free, then it makes sense to hold out for that.

Free? How would they get it for free?
04-11-2017 02:42 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #34
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
(04-11-2017 12:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  OK, if there is a real possibility of SDSU getting the entire property, whether they pay for it or get it free, then it makes sense to hold out for that.

Oh I have no idea how realistic it is - California politics are still a mystery to me. But they're making a push for it, and it's being led by their donors.

From one old stadium to two new ones? (April 2016) - includes a quote from Jim Moores, billionaire owner of the company (JMI) that developed the "West Campus" study and former owner of the Padres: “Nobody cares about a convention center. Fifty years from now, no one will care about a stadium. Fifty years from now, everyone is going to care about the universities.”

SDSU endorses 'west campus' concept for Qualcomm Stadium site (April 2016)

Renewed push for SDSU to take over Qualcomm Stadium site (November 2016)

Stadium’s future: City must raise expectations (Feb 10th 2017) "Having a Major League Soccer Team in San Diego is a wonderful idea, but only under the best terms. Let’s explore our options. Having a riverfront park, an NFL-quality football/soccer stadium and a new campus for San Diego State University should be a top priority. With 166 acres, we could have all of that. It is not hard to envision a beautiful riverfront park with the recreation fields that Mission Valley deserves. Let’s invest in our children and grandchildren and expand their opportunity for a quality education with an expanded San Diego State University." (I wish Cincinnati had a local newspaper that openly supported it the way that SDSU does).


SDSU Engaging With Developers on Qualcomm Stadium Site (Feb 16th 2017)

Soccer investors could pay $10K for Qualcomm site (Feb 28th 2017)

SDSU vs. SoccerCity: Campus seeks 47 acres at Qualcomm site (March 21 2017)
04-11-2017 03:11 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #35
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
(04-11-2017 02:42 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(04-11-2017 12:44 PM)Wedge Wrote:  OK, if there is a real possibility of SDSU getting the entire property, whether they pay for it or get it free, then it makes sense to hold out for that.

Free? How would they get it for free?

It's owned by the city. The city could give it to SDSU.
04-11-2017 03:16 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
Well since it's city property, they win a citywide referendum (required). OK impossible.

I have no clue why the SDSU leadership have their collective heads up their collective butts on this one. The arrogance is stunning. They are not even a UC with a Medical Center and research center (e.g., UCSD and Scripps). What makes them think they have that kind of pull? College sports is extremely niche in California. Kool-Aid sales must be impressive at SDSU executive offices.
04-11-2017 03:18 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #37
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
What about building an on campus stadium on parking lot A?
04-12-2017 10:05 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #38
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
(04-11-2017 03:18 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Well since it's city property, they win a citywide referendum (required). OK impossible.

I have no clue why the SDSU leadership have their collective heads up their collective butts on this one. The arrogance is stunning. They are not even a UC with a Medical Center and research center (e.g., UCSD and Scripps). What makes them think they have that kind of pull? College sports is extremely niche in California. Kool-Aid sales must be impressive at SDSU executive offices.

Because the (very popular) mayor, 4 of the 5 county commissioners, and several state reps are all SDSU grads.

Because it's a large (for CA) school with 260,000 alums, over 2/3 of whom live locally. I would guess that there are the same number of SDSU grads in San Diego as there are OSU grads in Columbus.

Because SDSU is the "t-shirt" team of San Diego. That's not saying as much as it would in the South or Midwest, but there's more Ohio State fans in San Diego than UCLA fans.

Because several local billionaires who are not SDSU grads have adopted SDSU.

Because California's real estate development market is not a free market. California's real estate/environmental laws practically mandate that any large-scale development be owned by a wealthy, well-connected, and well-organized interest group. SDSU is one of those interest groups, and they're better connected than any other interest group in town.
04-12-2017 01:42 PM
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MplsBison Offline
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Post: #39
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
(04-12-2017 01:42 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Because SDSU is the "t-shirt" team of San Diego.

Would guess that, if this is true, then what it really means is that there aren't a lot of t-shirt college sports fans in San Diego.

Guessing the real t-shirts are the Padres and previously Chargers.
04-12-2017 01:50 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: SDSU FB - Boom or Bust?
Agree MplsBison. I'm from Ohio. The analogies Bearcat gives work in Ohio, but not in California. It's a different culture.
04-12-2017 05:53 PM
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