(04-06-2017 01:04 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: (04-06-2017 12:02 PM)XLance Wrote: (04-06-2017 01:56 AM)JRsec Wrote: When asked about realignment he said that he didn't think it was over and that he thought there was a good chance in 4 or 5 years that Oklahoma and Texas would leave the Big 12 like Texas A&M did. The thought was they would head for the money in either the SEC or Big 10. Previously the writer had wondered if Oklahoma was angling for an SEC invite and that he saw OU and OSU as being likely to head to the SEC if they left the Big 12.
But, Corso letting that slip is probably at least a sign of where ESPN leans if not some primary knowledge of how things are developing.
http://gridironnow.com/lee-corso-wouldnt...ve-big-12/
Corso is just saying what ESPN has told him to say. Remember the night they they had Holtz spouting off about how Notre Dame should join a conference.
Well, there is a difference between a talking head giving his opinion of what should happen as opposed to being more definitive about what he thinks will happen.
Corso wouldn't be the first to say that realignment isn't done.
The thing about all realignment discussion that I find interesting is the depth of denial of the obvious that fans will go to in order to preserve their own world view.
If we could divorce ourselves from our passions and just look at everything objectively and logically it really isn't hard to see where things are going.
The PAC for instance has consistently been protective rather than proactive. Therefore the predictions about their future behavior are for a continued caution by the California schools and Washington in the protection of that which they find comfortable. The truth is they aren't a sports crazy conference and they like things the way they are. So expansion for them has to fit the PAC way of life. I doubt that they care to dive into the heartland for expansion because it is so very different from their culture and their emphasis on athletics.
The Big 12 has been about what's best for Texas and to a slightly lesser extent Oklahoma. The result is that their mid-level and autonomous schools have departed.
The SEC added Arkansas, Texas A&M and Missouri. They also added South Carolina. When we added S.Carolina and Arkansas we discussed openly in our meetings that both of those schools were valuable to us on their own, but also as bridges to other schools of interest. ESPN shut off expansion to the East by refusing to pay for it. They tried to work out a deal that would permit the SECN to gain access to North Carolina and Virginia but certain ACC schools balked at the idea even though it would have landed them brands and markets sufficient to support a network.
So, the last additions were to the West. That strongly suggests that the SEC will be used to acquire more Western schools. Which schools to the West can add value to the existing SEC? Texas, Oklahoma, and possibly Kansas.
The ACC expanded into the Northeast and into the Southeast. Louisville was a bridge to Indiana and therefore Notre Dame. Their next move is highly debatable. There are no more brands to the North or South that are beneficial to them and they are not in a financial situation to attract brands away from another conference.
The Big 10 wanted into the East. Their additions in the 90's were like those of the SEC. They added one to the East and one to the Southwest. The last two were to the East. They will look East again and will go after the only brands available there which happen to be ACC schools. They would take Texas but they won't take Kansas and Oklahoma without Texas. Texas won't head to the Big 10 and they know it. So they will look East.
Mike Slive said the next round of realignment could lead to some very, very large conferences.
So the practical projections that I would make are these:
1. The PAC will likely stay put. If they do expand they might now look at U.N.L.V. and Hawaii. The latter because of Scott's interest in tying into the Asian market. The former because it will now have a venue worthy of being a destination for PAC fans. So if the PAC moves to 14 that now becomes the way to do it. If Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12 in the future then Texas Tech and T.C.U. become a way to get into a much larger market if the PAC decides that's something thy want to do.
2. The Big 12 hangs in until the GOR expires and then it goes away. Why? It is the most profitable outcome for Texas and Oklahoma.
3. ESPN has two options with regard to Texas and Oklahoma. They could simply use the SEC to attract both of them and then build its Western division around those two brands giving them the RRR to anchor the West with tremendous help from Arkansas, A&M an L.S.U. to keep it as successful of a division as it has been for the past two decades. Then they could move Auburn and Alabama to the East to rebuild the strength of that division. If Texas and Oklahoma can't have their own conference, perhaps they would love their own division, especially if it consists of former rivals.
Or, they could revisit the original deal that was offered in 2011. N.C. State and Virginia Tech to the SEC. Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Notre Dame all in for the ACC. This would sufficiently enhance the ACC to the status of being a viable rival for the SEC and that would make the schools of the ACC a lot more money, give the most successful sports network the SECN two large new markets, and provide Texas a 4 school division in which Miami would allow those Western schools access to Florida.
But, if the same selfishness is exhibited by the old core of the ACC that was exhibited in 2011 the option of adding Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC is still viable.
The ACC needs to be very careful about its decision because in 2034 the Big 10 might come calling with much larger coffers and with determination to get what they are after. Because of that....
4. The Big 10 will again make a play for Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Virginia and if taking Duke too ensures the move they will. They might even look at adding Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech to that strategy to move to 20. Why? The population and money is much greater there than in Kansas and Oklahoma without Texas.
If that happens the SEC will be likely able to land Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State and Virginia Tech anyway. Then if we can get Oklahoma and Texas to the West we can stand at a formidable 20. If during that kind of massive move the PAC does take an uncharacteristic plunge into the Big 12 and takes 8 of those schools they can move to 20 as well (UT, TTU, OU, OSU, ISU, KU, KSU, TCU). The SEC in that case might look at two of Louisville, West Virginia and Miami (provided Texas and Oklahoma are part of the contingent moving to the PAC).
So much indeed will depend upon what the ACC chooses to do next. It really might come down to deal, or no deal. If they deal it is long range security. If they don't it may be a short future.
5. What I don't buy into:
a. The PAC simply taking the leftovers of the Big 12.
b. The Big 10 being truly interested in the Southern Midwest.
c. The SEC having to do anything if they don't get what they want.
e. The ACC having a lot of options beyond N.D. and maybe one other, unless they make a deal and take a group from the Big 12.
f. The Big 12 expanding. It's simply not going to be paid for by the networks and expansion isn't profitable from the pool at hand.
So much of what we've already talked about has been the proverbial two blind guys feeling the elephant to determine what it is. Virtually all aspects are in play.
I think the Big 10 talk about taking OU and KU is merely like their talk once before about Missouri. It's a misdirection from their logical alternatives. If they took 6 Eastern schools they could essentially have a Big 10 East that would be two divisions of their new additions plus Purdue. Their two Western divisions would be the Old Big 10 plus Nebraska. That's really fairly ideal.
Ditto for the SEC with regard to Texas and OU, but for us it would still work if we took 4 more schools to the East.
But, if the ACC makes the deal that was originally considered, then they would be an equal partner with the Big 10 and SEC all of which likely would stop at 16.
We'll see.