(04-05-2017 09:46 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 09:21 AM)TUCandoit Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 08:37 AM)pesik Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 08:26 AM)Hurricane Drummer Wrote:  If Tulsa beats a top 15 Ok St. in the first game, and runs the table while beating a top 25 USF twice to win the American, then maybe we would have a chance. I give it a 2% chance Tulsa makes the playoffs.

you don't have preseason hype....you beating okstate would be viewed as okstate being bad....not a as a validation of tulsa

its a 2 year process to have a chance

Actually, Tulsa was picked by USA Today as the team to watch, saying that we were their pick of the G5 to have the best chance of ruining the P5 plans. ESPN has said that in a couple their articles as well. We are getting more hype than you think. I believe USA Today had us sitting at 28 in the waaaaayyy too early poll.

thats 1 analyst, this isn't a knock on tulsa but in general you have no preseason hypee...
id say the same for houston, lee corso thinks we are the g5 team to beat next year with kyle allen, but his sole opinion doesnt mean we are hyped

usf is the only team with the necessary hype (but bad schedule)

there is no such thing as a rebuilding g5 being hyped (you lost your qb, main wr and main rb) unless your boise because they've done it a few times

if you finished undefeated id guess a ranking of 8 or 9
and then in 2018 with likely your best players not brewer returning, youd start 15/16 with games against texas (hopefully turned around) and arkansas and then youd have a chance at the playoff

you have zero this year

If we beat OSU in week one we would enter the top 25 the following Monday. By seasons end we could absolutely be higher than 8 or 9. Houston topped out at #6 when the started at #15, but they were playing games against Lamar and Texas State. We would probably make it up to the mid teens if we went into week 5 at Navy undefeated. That win would probably bump us up to the 12-14 range. The rest of the season which would include a good UH team, a very good Memphis team, and a very very good USF team + a conference championship could take us the rest of the way if we went undefeated. There's no way I see that happening with a brand new quarterback though. From what I've seen in spring practice vids we'll be lucky to win 10 again.

AAC teams chances to reach the college football playoff:

a: slim
b: none

(04-05-2017 09:35 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  AAC teams chances to reach the college football playoff:

a: slim
b: none

I saw Jolene buying a pregnancy test at Dollar General

(04-05-2017 09:38 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 09:35 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  AAC teams chances to reach the college football playoff:

a: slim
b: none

I saw Jolene buying a pregnancy test at Dollar General

Well then you're hosed. She has been going around telling everyone about you two for weeks now.

(04-05-2017 09:39 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 09:38 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 09:35 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  AAC teams chances to reach the college football playoff:

a: slim
b: none

I saw Jolene buying a pregnancy test at Dollar General

Well then you're hosed. She has been going around telling everyone about you two for weeks now.

There is a camera in the alley behind Dairy Whip. We all saw you two in her Ford Pinto

(04-05-2017 09:41 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 09:39 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 09:38 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 09:35 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  AAC teams chances to reach the college football playoff:

a: slim
b: none

I saw Jolene buying a pregnancy test at Dollar General

Well then you're hosed. She has been going around telling everyone about you two for weeks now.

There is a camera in the alley behind Dairy Whip. We all saw you two in her Ford Pinto

at 4'8 and 300lbs, she's too much woman for just one man, sorry dude

Not saying it's at all realistic but ECU's 2017 schedule is as follows:

Sept. 2 - JAMES MADISON
Sept. 9 - at West Virginia
Sept. 16 - VIRGINIA TECH
Sept. 30 - *USF
Oct. 7 - *TEMPLE
Oct. 14 - *at UCF
Oct. 21 - BYU (HC)
Oct. 28 - *at Houston
Nov. 4 - *at Connecticut
Nov. 11 - *TULANE
Nov. 18 - *CINCINNATI
Nov. 25 - *at Memphis
Dec. 2 - AAC Championship Game (highest-seed campus site) - ABC/ESPN

3 out of the 1st 4 opponents should be ranked & the other one is the defending FCS champ, add in BYU as the homecoming game, and you have a really tough schedule. IF ECU could somehow miraculously run the table with that schedule, a top 4 finish would certainly be plausible. Running the table, in conjunction with VT & WVU winning/challenging for their respective conference championships would make it fairly likely. Finally, add to the foregoing hypothetical a stronger than anticipated AAC, including a highly ranked team in the championship, and that would make a top 4 finish very likely, particularly if there were a couple of P5 champs with 2 losses.

A lot of if's but the schedule is there to make it happen. Vegas has ECU as 1000/1 odds to win the Nat'l Title FWIW. The problem is, even if there's significant improvement from last year, ECU will still struggle to get to just 6 wins with that schedule. If UH had run the table last year they would have been in. Granted they carried momentum from the previous year but ECU's schedule appears to be even more daunting than UH's 2016 gauntlet. Every ECU fan has been waiting for another '91 season & the laws of averages indicate that it will happen again eventually. After all, ECU had a losing record in 1990 so anything is possible I guess.

(04-05-2017 09:07 AM)Huskypride Wrote:  I think they should expand the playoff to 8 teams. Each power five title game winner gets a bid, two at large bids and an automatic bid for the best team in the group of five. Ik know it will down play Making a bowl. But this would be fun to watch. It also get a go5 team in the playoff. Cause unless god creates a path for us. We have basically no chance to make the playoff.

no P6 get bids plus 2 at large. the hell with the G4

(04-06-2017 08:28 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 09:07 AM)Huskypride Wrote:  I think they should expand the playoff to 8 teams. Each power five title game winner gets a bid, two at large bids and an automatic bid for the best team in the group of five. Ik know it will down play Making a bowl. But this would be fun to watch. It also get a go5 team in the playoff. Cause unless god creates a path for us. We have basically no chance to make the playoff.

no P6 get bids plus 2 at large. the hell with the G4

i agree, i agree, but based on our current G5 situation this would be our best option. The rest of the G5 conferences cant compete with us in anything, so it would basically be an auto bid for the AAC

(04-05-2017 06:53 AM)Chappy Wrote:  You need the perfect storm:

1. A team in the preseason top 25 (top 15 would be even better) - USF will likely fit the bill.

2. That team needs to face a tough OOC schedule (3-4 P5 schools, 1-2 of them in highly ranked) - USF has just Illinois on the slate.

3. Their opponent in the AAC title game needs to be ranked - too soon to tell if that will happen.

4a. Two of the P5 conferences need to have 'meh' champions - this is out of our control.

or

4b. The American champion needs to defeat two eventual P5 champions in the regular season - that won't happen this year.

5. The American champ needs to be undefeated - USF could accomplish this but their weak OOC will keep them from the playoffs.

Agree with the items in bold.

Would also like to add that, because of our perceived weakness as a conference when compared to the P5 conferences, the ENTIRE conference needs to have a strong OOC record. We would need to have a 75% or better record against everyone OOC, and a better than 50% record against the P5 opponents (also helps if they aren't the Illinois's's's and Kansas's's of the world). Our win rate was something like 25% against P5 opponents last year. That alone implies that our best team doesn't belong.

Yes, if we beat OU and Louisville and are able to remain undefeated and win the AAC....

Wait that was last year

(04-06-2017 04:40 PM)IAH Wrote:  Yes, if we beat OU and Louisville and are able to remain undefeated and win the AAC....

Wait that was last year

We all saw how tom douchebag derailed that dream...

Only if ECU goes undefeated and WVU wins the Big 12 and Virginia Tech wins the ACC. Plus BYU wins 9 games.

2017 OOC Shedule for AAC

Cincinnati - Austin Peay, Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Marshall
ECU - James Madison (FCS Champion), West Virginia, Virginia Tech, BYU
Temple - Notre Dame, Villanova, UMass, Army
UCF - FIU, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Maine
UConn - Holy Cross, Virgina, Missouri, Boston College
USF - San Jose State, Stony Brook, Illinois, UMass
Houston - UTSA, Arizona, Rice, Texas Tech
Memphis - Louisiana–Monroe, UCLA, Southern Illinois, Georgia State,
Navy - Florida Atlantic, Air Force, Notre Dame, Army
SMU - Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, TCU, Arkansas State
Tulane - Grambling, Oklahoma, Army, FIU
Tulsa - Oklahoma State, Louisiana–Lafayette, Toledo, New Mexico

Since ECU clearly has the toughest schedule, they will bear the burden of carrying the AAC torch.


Talk about massive potential for growth.

(04-06-2017 09:26 PM)mikeinoki Wrote:  2017 OOC Shedule for AAC

Cincinnati - Austin Peay, Michigan, Miami of Ohio, Marshall
ECU - James Madison (FCS Champion), West Virginia, Virginia Tech, BYU
Temple - Notre Dame, Villanova, UMass
UCF - FIU, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Maine
UConn - Holy Cross, Virgina, Missouri, Boston College
USF - San Jose State, Stony Brook, Illinois, UMass
Houston - UTSA, Arizona, Arizona, Texas Tech
Memphis - Louisiana–Monroe, UCLA, Southern Illinois, Georgia State,
Navy - Florida Atlantic, Air Force, Notre Dame, Army
SMU - Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, TCU, Arkansas State
Tulane - Grambling, Oklahoma, Army, FIU
Tulsa - Oklahoma State, Louisiana–Lafayette, Toledo, New Mexico

Since ECU clearly has the toughest schedule, they will bear the burden of carrying the AAC torch.


Talk about massive potential for growth.

if we beat Missouri (ik they suck) we will storm the field lol

(04-06-2017 08:54 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  Only if ECU goes undefeated and WVU wins the Big 12 and Virginia Tech wins the ACC. Plus BYU wins 9 games.

I think it would still take the rest of the conference being competitive. That scenario would definitely lock the G5 access bid, but to actually make the playoff, the conference needs to win +50% of these games

ECU - West Virginia, Virginia Tech, BYU
Cincy - Michigan
UCF - Georgia Tech, Maryland
Temple - Notre Dame
UConn - Virginia, Missouri, Boston College
Houston - Arizona, Texas Tech
Memphis - UCLA
Navy - Notre Dame
SMU - TCU
Tulane - Oklahoma
Tulsa - Oklahoma State

That's 17 notable games. The AAC would need to take 9 of them AND one of the teams in bold needs to be undefeated. That's just to get a shot at being in the playoff conversation...and still probably not getting picked. Any of the other teams going undefeated would be worthless due to scheduling.

Also, if your team has OOC games that I didn't mention (or your team isn't mentioned at all), then they need to win them convincingly.

All that said, I don't think we're anywhere close to that scenario based on prior season performance. We played 20 games against the P5 last year (not all of those games notable), and went 8-12 (40%). IMO, the conversation starts and ends there. We all need to be more competitive, and do it consistently.

(04-04-2017 10:58 PM)Huskypride Wrote:  Do u guys think that the AAC could get a team into the playoff this year

100% yes.

(04-07-2017 08:35 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  

(04-06-2017 08:54 PM)Carolina_Low_Country Wrote:  Only if ECU goes undefeated and WVU wins the Big 12 and Virginia Tech wins the ACC. Plus BYU wins 9 games.

I think it would still take the rest of the conference being competitive. That scenario would definitely lock the G5 access bid, but to actually make the playoff, the conference needs to win +50% of these games

ECU - West Virginia, Virginia Tech, BYU
Cincy - Michigan
UCF - Georgia Tech, Maryland
Temple - Notre Dame
UConn - Virginia, Missouri, Boston College
Houston - Arizona, Texas Tech
Memphis - UCLA
Navy - Notre Dame
SMU - TCU
Tulane - Oklahoma
Tulsa - Oklahoma State

That's 17 notable games. The AAC would need to take 9 of them AND one of the teams in bold needs to be undefeated. That's just to get a shot at being in the playoff conversation...and still probably not getting picked. Any of the other teams going undefeated would be worthless due to scheduling.

Also, if your team has OOC games that I didn't mention (or your team isn't mentioned at all), then they need to win them convincingly.

All that said, I don't think we're anywhere close to that scenario based on prior season performance. We played 20 games against the P5 last year (not all of those games notable), and went 8-12 (40%). IMO, the conversation starts and ends there. We all need to be more competitive, and do it consistently.

USF- should be expected to be 4-0 in OOC. Should beat everyone of their non-power teams by blowout. Illinois and SJSU are the toughest of the 4 Non-Power games that USF plays. I know I know, some would consider the game @ SJSU a tough one.

(04-06-2017 08:35 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(04-06-2017 04:40 PM)IAH Wrote:  Yes, if we beat OU and Louisville and are able to remain undefeated and win the AAC....

Wait that was last year

We all saw how tom douchebag derailed that dream...

The media and the P5 derailed that dream, not CTH.

(04-07-2017 09:11 AM)coogrfan Wrote:  

(04-06-2017 08:35 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(04-06-2017 04:40 PM)IAH Wrote:  Yes, if we beat OU and Louisville and are able to remain undefeated and win the AAC....

Wait that was last year

We all saw how tom douchebag derailed that dream...

The media and the P5 derailed that dream, not CTH.

Definitely. That, and losing a bunch of games.