Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Mick Mulvaney knocking it out of the park right now.
Author Message
Hood-rich Offline
Smarter Than the Average Lib

Posts: 9,300
Joined: May 2016
I Root For: ECU & CSU
Location: The Hood
Post: #41
RE: Mick Mulvaney knocking it out of the park right now.
(03-18-2017 06:23 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-18-2017 05:54 AM)q5sys Wrote:  
(03-17-2017 07:25 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  And automation will create new jobs building and operating and maintaining those automated systems. Those jobs will be fewer in number, but much higher paying, and that extra disposable income will be spent in ways that magnify the job creation impact tenfold.
Except the people being replaced by automation... aren't going to have the necessary skills or intelligence to become robot service technicians.
Walmart shelf stockers, fast food workers, etc are not going to have the capability to get one of those higher paying automation technicians jobs.
If 100 people are put out of work, and 10 technician jobs are created... those 10 people will not be earning enough to be able to spend enough to compensate for the money those 100 individuals have lost.
Besides... they will most likely be spending it in areas that are ALSO affected by automation. In this example, they would mathematically have to be making 10 times what each individual would have made to have a break even point for society as far as spendable income. If those initial 100 people were making 20K a year that means that these technicians would have to be making 200K for things to be even. That's never going to happen. That's not even considering your tenfold impact you claim. The math just will never work out the way you may think.
There is a huge section of society that is going to be unemployable in the next 50 years. And for everyone that wants to claim 'oh they can go back to school' or some similar line. Remember the average IQ in this country is right around 100. Half of society has below average intelligence. They are cognitively incapable of learning the necessary skills to compete for higher skilled jobs.
It's not a matter of them not being willing to strive for those jobs... they fundamentally will be unable to meet the mental requirements for them.

So you reform our education system, including a much more vigorous and rigorous vocational/technical track, to give more of them the skills they need.
And you implement a Consumption tax and use the revenues to fund Bismarck health care and reduce top income rates to world class levels or below, which greatly reduces the cost of doing business here so that we move back toward being a producer economy, and that creates more top-end jobs.
And you reform welfare to provide a truly comprehensive safety net for those who do fall through the racks, while eliminating the welfare trap that keeps families trapped in poverty for generations.

And your math is wrong. Because of the Keynesian multiplier effect, those 10 technicians don't have to make $200k for the deal to work. Somewhere around $80-100k probably gets it done. And with the return of investment and production, those 10 technician jobs become 20-30, and the math gets even better.
So so now you're pushing Keynesian economics? Sorry but I'm not buying this can work in reality. A nice term paper can be written about it I'm sure.

Sent from my SM-J700T using CSNbbs mobile app
03-18-2017 09:08 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stinkfist Offline
nuts zongo's in the house
*

Posts: 68,369
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 6856
I Root For: Mustard Buzzards
Location: who knows?
Post: #42
RE: Mick Mulvaney knocking it out of the park right now.
(03-18-2017 06:23 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-18-2017 05:54 AM)q5sys Wrote:  
(03-17-2017 07:25 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  And automation will create new jobs building and operating and maintaining those automated systems. Those jobs will be fewer in number, but much higher paying, and that extra disposable income will be spent in ways that magnify the job creation impact tenfold.
Except the people being replaced by automation... aren't going to have the necessary skills or intelligence to become robot service technicians.
Walmart shelf stockers, fast food workers, etc are not going to have the capability to get one of those higher paying automation technicians jobs.
If 100 people are put out of work, and 10 technician jobs are created... those 10 people will not be earning enough to be able to spend enough to compensate for the money those 100 individuals have lost.
Besides... they will most likely be spending it in areas that are ALSO affected by automation. In this example, they would mathematically have to be making 10 times what each individual would have made to have a break even point for society as far as spendable income. If those initial 100 people were making 20K a year that means that these technicians would have to be making 200K for things to be even. That's never going to happen. That's not even considering your tenfold impact you claim. The math just will never work out the way you may think.
There is a huge section of society that is going to be unemployable in the next 50 years. And for everyone that wants to claim 'oh they can go back to school' or some similar line. Remember the average IQ in this country is right around 100. Half of society has below average intelligence. They are cognitively incapable of learning the necessary skills to compete for higher skilled jobs.
It's not a matter of them not being willing to strive for those jobs... they fundamentally will be unable to meet the mental requirements for them.

So you reform our education system, including a much more vigorous and rigorous vocational/technical track, to give more of them the skills they need.
And you implement a Consumption tax and use the revenues to fund Bismarck health care and reduce top income rates to world class levels or below, which greatly reduces the cost of doing business here so that we move back toward being a producer economy, and that creates more top-end jobs.
And you reform welfare to provide a truly comprehensive safety net for those who do fall through the racks, while eliminating the welfare trap that keeps families trapped in poverty for generations.

And your math is wrong. Because of the Keynesian multiplier effect, those 10 technicians don't have to make $200k for the deal to work. Somewhere around $80-100k probably gets it done. And with the return of investment and production, those 10 technician jobs become 20-30, and the math gets even better.

while I wholeheartedly agree with this, those jobs need to become available through enacting policy that will generate such....it doesn't make sense to have the cart pull the horse....in the past we've both pined the 'why' how a service center is not self sustaining.....this is an infrastructure issue - both human and materials

the math portion is arguable semantics and not relevant to the goal in isolation
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2017 09:20 AM by stinkfist.)
03-18-2017 09:16 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Owl 69/70/75 Offline
Just an old rugby coach
*

Posts: 80,643
Joined: Sep 2005
Reputation: 3192
I Root For: RiceBathChelsea
Location: Montgomery, TX

DonatorsNew Orleans Bowl
Post: #43
RE: Mick Mulvaney knocking it out of the park right now.
(03-18-2017 09:16 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  
(03-18-2017 06:23 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-18-2017 05:54 AM)q5sys Wrote:  
(03-17-2017 07:25 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  And automation will create new jobs building and operating and maintaining those automated systems. Those jobs will be fewer in number, but much higher paying, and that extra disposable income will be spent in ways that magnify the job creation impact tenfold.
Except the people being replaced by automation... aren't going to have the necessary skills or intelligence to become robot service technicians.
Walmart shelf stockers, fast food workers, etc are not going to have the capability to get one of those higher paying automation technicians jobs.
If 100 people are put out of work, and 10 technician jobs are created... those 10 people will not be earning enough to be able to spend enough to compensate for the money those 100 individuals have lost.
Besides... they will most likely be spending it in areas that are ALSO affected by automation. In this example, they would mathematically have to be making 10 times what each individual would have made to have a break even point for society as far as spendable income. If those initial 100 people were making 20K a year that means that these technicians would have to be making 200K for things to be even. That's never going to happen. That's not even considering your tenfold impact you claim. The math just will never work out the way you may think.
There is a huge section of society that is going to be unemployable in the next 50 years. And for everyone that wants to claim 'oh they can go back to school' or some similar line. Remember the average IQ in this country is right around 100. Half of society has below average intelligence. They are cognitively incapable of learning the necessary skills to compete for higher skilled jobs.
It's not a matter of them not being willing to strive for those jobs... they fundamentally will be unable to meet the mental requirements for them.
So you reform our education system, including a much more vigorous and rigorous vocational/technical track, to give more of them the skills they need.
And you implement a Consumption tax and use the revenues to fund Bismarck health care and reduce top income rates to world class levels or below, which greatly reduces the cost of doing business here so that we move back toward being a producer economy, and that creates more top-end jobs.
And you reform welfare to provide a truly comprehensive safety net for those who do fall through the racks, while eliminating the welfare trap that keeps families trapped in poverty for generations.
And your math is wrong. Because of the Keynesian multiplier effect, those 10 technicians don't have to make $200k for the deal to work. Somewhere around $80-100k probably gets it done. And with the return of investment and production, those 10 technician jobs become 20-30, and the math gets even better.
while I wholeheartedly agree with this, those jobs need to become available through enacting policy that will generate such....it doesn't make sense to have the cart pull the horse....in the past we've both pined the 'why' how a service center is not self sustaining.....this is an infrastructure issue - both human and materials
the math portion is arguable semantics and not relevant to the goal in isolation

Agree. We must have the tax and regulatory reforms in place to attract investment, or else we are simply training people for jobs that will never exist.
03-18-2017 09:42 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Owl 69/70/75 Offline
Just an old rugby coach
*

Posts: 80,643
Joined: Sep 2005
Reputation: 3192
I Root For: RiceBathChelsea
Location: Montgomery, TX

DonatorsNew Orleans Bowl
Post: #44
RE: Mick Mulvaney knocking it out of the park right now.
(03-18-2017 09:08 AM)Hood-rich Wrote:  So so now you're pushing Keynesian economics? Sorry but I'm not buying this can work in reality. A nice term paper can be written about it I'm sure.

No, I'm not pushing Keynesian economics. But like any theory, good or bad, there are usually some elements that make sense. And the multiplier effect is pretty much universally accepted.

How well it works is almost irrelevant. It's what we have to work with, to make it work as well as possible. It will almost certainly work better than our current headlong dash into being a retail/service economy.
03-18-2017 09:48 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
q5sys Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,135
Joined: Jan 2017
Reputation: 323
I Root For: MIT & USAFA
Location: DC/Baltimore Metro
Post: #45
RE: Mick Mulvaney knocking it out of the park right now.
(03-18-2017 06:23 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-18-2017 05:54 AM)q5sys Wrote:  
(03-17-2017 07:25 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  And automation will create new jobs building and operating and maintaining those automated systems.
Except the people being replaced by automation... aren't going to have the necessary skills or intelligence to become robot service technicians.
Walmart shelf stockers, fast food workers, etc are not going to have the capability to get one of those higher paying automation technicians jobs.

There is a huge section of society that is going to be unemployable in the next 50 years. And for everyone that wants to claim 'oh they can go back to school' or some similar line. Remember the average IQ in this country is right around 100. Half of society has below average intelligence. They are cognitively incapable of learning the necessary skills to compete for higher skilled jobs.

It's not a matter of them not being willing to strive for those jobs... they fundamentally will be unable to meet the mental requirements for them.

So you reform our education system, including a much more vigorous and rigorous vocational/technical track, to give more of them the skills they need.


This is what I feel is generally getting lost on when the topic is discussed. As non PC as it is... people have limits of what they are cognitively able to do. This is the limiting factor, that no one wants to address. I don't think reforming education is going to solve anything, because you have people who are unable to be educated beyond a certain point.

In the past when there were tons of manual labor jobs, it didnt matter. They could still preform that form of labor and provide for a family and be a benefit to society. The number of manual labor jobs in the future is going to be significantly smaller than it is now. The people who just arent cognitively able to learn more will find themselves in the jobless line. I have good friends who never got past Algebra 1 before graduating high school because they don't have the mental capacity. They are great people, and I hope they are in my life for a long time... so please don't think I'm trying to slander them. But it doesn't change the fact that the reason one of them has a job driving a truck in a quarry is because he's not able to do anything else. Anything that requires critical thinking or deductive reasoning is beyond him. He's able to drive a truck because it's a simple job. Point A to Point B. He moves when it's his turn. He makes a decent living for him and his family... but in 20 years, that job is most likely going to be gone.

My best friend owns a farm and just bought a new tractor last year with GPS guidance. All he had to do was drive the tractor around his fields once to program the path he wanted, and it'll do it on its own now. He no longer hires high school kids to drive his tractors during the summer because he has no need for them.

I could go on but I really think CGP Grey did it WAY more justice than I can in his piece "Humans need not Apply"

He makes a fantastic parallel between the plight of horses in the 20th century and humans in the future. I can't recommend this video enough, for anyone pondering the issue of automation and future employment issues.

This is a massive issue that our society is facing on the horizon, and I haven't heard a good way to deal with it. I have no idea what the solution is... or if there even is a solution. What I'm trying to do is wrestle with the possibilities and figure out how society will continue to function as a whole when huge amounts of society are unable to work. I consider myself to be a libertarian in many regards... but this is one issue that I cannot resolve with those ideals. Striving to achieve is a great thing as long as the possibility to achieve exists. When it no longer exists... how do these people eat? As much as I do NOT like socialism, I am trying to resolve the conflict of how society can function when a huge segment will be unable to provide for themselves through no fault of their own.
I dont know the answer... and I fear that right now... no one does.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2017 02:48 PM by q5sys.)
03-18-2017 02:26 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Owl 69/70/75 Offline
Just an old rugby coach
*

Posts: 80,643
Joined: Sep 2005
Reputation: 3192
I Root For: RiceBathChelsea
Location: Montgomery, TX

DonatorsNew Orleans Bowl
Post: #46
RE: Mick Mulvaney knocking it out of the park right now.
People do have cognitive limits on what they are able to do. But even people who are limited still have capacity to learn some things, and can be trained to perform many tasks. And not all of those tasks will go away to automation. But we have to reorient our education system toward vocational/technical education to make it happen.
03-18-2017 02:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
nomad2u2001 Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,356
Joined: Nov 2006
Reputation: 450
I Root For: ECU
Location: NC
Post: #47
RE: Mick Mulvaney knocking it out of the park right now.
(03-18-2017 02:26 PM)q5sys Wrote:  
(03-18-2017 06:23 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(03-18-2017 05:54 AM)q5sys Wrote:  
(03-17-2017 07:25 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  And automation will create new jobs building and operating and maintaining those automated systems.
Except the people being replaced by automation... aren't going to have the necessary skills or intelligence to become robot service technicians.
Walmart shelf stockers, fast food workers, etc are not going to have the capability to get one of those higher paying automation technicians jobs.

There is a huge section of society that is going to be unemployable in the next 50 years. And for everyone that wants to claim 'oh they can go back to school' or some similar line. Remember the average IQ in this country is right around 100. Half of society has below average intelligence. They are cognitively incapable of learning the necessary skills to compete for higher skilled jobs.

It's not a matter of them not being willing to strive for those jobs... they fundamentally will be unable to meet the mental requirements for them.

So you reform our education system, including a much more vigorous and rigorous vocational/technical track, to give more of them the skills they need.

This is a massive issue that our society is facing on the horizon, and I haven't heard a good way to deal with it. I have no idea what the solution is... or if there even is a solution. What I'm trying to do is wrestle with the possibilities and figure out how society will continue to function as a whole when huge amounts of society are unable to work. I consider myself to be a libertarian in many regards... but this is one issue that I cannot resolve with those ideals. Striving to achieve is a great thing as long as the possibility to achieve exists. When it no longer exists... how do these people eat? As much as I do NOT like socialism, I am trying to resolve the conflict of how society can function when a huge segment will be unable to provide for themselves through no fault of their own.
I dont know the answer... and I fear that right now... no one does.

I agree. I stated before that I'm no type of -ist economically. I accept capitalism because from where we are, what we've had, and the fact that we're on the winning side of it, it's the best thing for my life right now. I only like it because it has been convenient.

But at age 28, I think I'm going to have to push to make every dime I can before age 45. After that the opportunities will be low and damn, I don't know what my kids will be faced with.

I'm all for reforming education, but even then we'll end up flooding the market with people trained to do jobs that aren't going to be needed in huge numbers. Train 1 million people on something technical that only needs 80,000 and the situation isn't made any better.
03-18-2017 03:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.