RE: Wichita St to American ?
Gonzaga (48th largest budget, $7.3m MBB budget) is truly a major that has nowhere to go. The MWC is no improvement over the WCC, and they will never get in the Pac-12 due to the mission of their school. They fit the Big East, except they are in Eastern Washington - they are just too far from Providence, DC, and even Chicago.
I think the impact is going to be that the MVC will back fill with Illinois Chicago, which seems a little better value than Valparaiso, because it is in Chicago proper, and because it has more students and alumni. There is no great financial gain, but the Valley has ESPN3 coverage of games, and the Horizon only gets about 25% of it's games on TV or media. So they will move.
For the Horizon there is no school which fits their upper range of schools in terms of budget and fan support who are likely to be interested from a lower "ranked" conference:
* GCU, Liberty, Seattle, Denver, Sienna, NMSU, and Belmont slot ahead of everyone in the Horizon
* Fairfield, Quinnipiac, Stony Brook, Iona, Hartford, Murray State, Stephen F Austin are in the range
Everyone else is below the top 6 (of 9 once UIC/Valpo leave; NKU's budget is growing and will move out of the bottom 3 soon) and would pull the conference down due to smaller budgets, low RPI teams, and very low fan support (that kills UMKC, Omaha, and IUPUI, who are otherwise good fits).
Geography eliminates most of the above, except Belmont, Murray State, and possibly Denver -- because both Chicago and Denver at UAL hubs they could partner with the remaining Chicago school. Belmont said no to the MVC and moved soccer to the SoCon, which says there is zero chance they'd be interested. Murray, like farther away SFA, has the football issue and small metro, and just don't the Horizon. Denver I just can't make a compelling case for them to move - they would prefer the MVC, but like Belmont declined when asked.
This leads me to conclude that the realignment will end with the MVC taking UIC or Valpo. The Horizon will stand pat with 9, and wait for a better fit to materialize down the road.
The WAC wont be effected. Then there is UCSD's saga with the Big West. Everyday without an invite makes a WAC scenario more plausible.
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