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Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
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Downtown Shocker Brown Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
(03-13-2017 08:25 PM)ken d Wrote:  In last year's tournament, only one mid-major school (that is, anyone not in one of the six power conferences) won a game as an at-large entry. That was Wichita State.

Nine mid-major conference champs won a game (not counting play in games where they played another mid-major champ). If that continues, I doubt you will see much of an increase in mid-major at-large bids.

VCU won it's first round game over Oregon State as well.
03-13-2017 09:49 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
The AAC is under the same pressure other mid-majors are. It's a resource and exposure squeeze. I actually think those networks for the major conferences as well as the TV packages, including the Big East with FOX are eroding the profile of the other schools.

The media coverage is also pushing the power conferences into these Big East-Big Ten, Pac-12-Big XII challenges, as well as the select pre-season tournaments. This is reducing the contact between the levels.

I don't think the AAC is special among the rest. The WCC is probably even or ahead of them, with Gonzaga and St. Mary's a better pair than SMU and Cincy, while BYU is Houston level. But in general the recruits are drifting from the American, just like the other stronger mid-majors, and toward the power conferences. The pre-realignment world, mid-major conferences tended to be dominated by one school with one or two others who would rise modestly to compete. This is because in the invisible world of mid-majors you only get noticed with 25 win seasons.

When I said the AAC was trending that way, I meant they were on a trajectory to be a typical better mid-major, where one school will dominate, and a second might rise to challenge from time to time. Adding or losing a school wont change the dynamic for long, maybe a couple years. The American rode the Big East for almost a half dozen years, but they have drifted back into the mid-major group. Memphis and Temple are no longer a powers (hello UNLV and New Mexico irrelevance), Central and South Florida never were much, nor ECU, Tulsa, or Tulane, while UConn has faded like SDSU. American fans are blind to this, because they perceive themselves better than the other mid-majors. They don't recognize the longer historical mid-major experience now applies to them (IMO because they came from the big East and they used to be a power conference).

I think 4-5 at-large is where it is going to sit for awhile for mid-majors. Not because things have stabilized, but simply because 37-38 P6 is exactly 50% of the 75 schools in the big show. The math of Conference records means that is about all that can ever qualify. 38 got in and the next 16 P6 had winning overall records (14 made the NIT), but with resumes lacking many quality wins with unimpressive conference records. In short this is maxed out for P6 at-large.
03-13-2017 10:15 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #23
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
You lost me at "the WCC is even or ahead of the AAC".
03-13-2017 10:28 PM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
Mid major conferences don't win national championships in any major sports. (Football and men's basketball). EVER. It's never happened. Except the AAC has won one in men's basketball. A conference that wins a natty is not a "mid major". Now maybe there is some other appropriate term other than power, but it's not mid major.
03-13-2017 11:03 PM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
The term power six doesn't exist. Anywhere. The term power 5 only exists because of the CFP. No one has ever used the term power 6 (other than the AAC who is trying to be one in football).
(This post was last modified: 03-13-2017 11:07 PM by BullsFanInTX.)
03-13-2017 11:06 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
The committee this year strongly favored teams with quality wins. Top 100 wins good, top 50 wins better, top 25 wins best.

Fair or not, teams outside the power conferences that want a good shot at an at-large bid now have to do whatever it takes to get games against teams in the top half of power conferences. ADs want home/home series because they want to sell a marquee home game, but if they can't get those, the coach needs to tell his AD to get the team a few good road games and/or a spot in an early-season tournament.
03-13-2017 11:11 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
i think contraction is coming, the 3 smallest conf [american east, atlantic sun & wac] could easily be absobered into other confs
that would open up 3 at-large spots
i never understood why conf did not follow a-10 model, 14-16 schools seem to work well
im sure tv markets help
03-14-2017 03:00 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
(03-13-2017 11:06 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  The term power six doesn't exist. Anywhere. The term power 5 only exists because of the CFP. No one has ever used the term power 6 (other than the AAC who is trying to be one in football).
"Man, if only there was an online tool that could search for occurrences of phrases online, so such a claim could be tested."

A quick google search immediately brings up: "College Basketball: Ranking the Power 6 Conferences", 9 January, 2013.
03-14-2017 03:06 AM
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orangefan Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
I don't think that you can blame the committee for this trend. The only glaring omission from the tournament among the mid majors was Illinois State, which in my view should have been invited over any of the bubble power conference schools. The power conferences appear to be getting stronger relative to the mid majors. This is likely due to wise spending of the additional money that they are generating under new TV deals, for instance on coaches and facilities. Plus the power conferences are getting a ton more TV exposure. The worst school in a power conference gets more air time than the best school in a mid major conference.
03-14-2017 07:49 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Decline of Mid-Major At-Large Tournament Appearances
(03-13-2017 09:49 PM)Downtown Shocker Brown Wrote:  
(03-13-2017 08:25 PM)ken d Wrote:  In last year's tournament, only one mid-major school (that is, anyone not in one of the six power conferences) won a game as an at-large entry. That was Wichita State.

Nine mid-major conference champs won a game (not counting play in games where they played another mid-major champ). If that continues, I doubt you will see much of an increase in mid-major at-large bids.

VCU won it's first round game over Oregon State as well.

IIRC, VCU was not an at-large entry last year. They came in as A-10 champion.
03-14-2017 08:10 AM
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