Now that I am mostly over the debacle that was Sunday, March 12th (Should have known it would be a bad day when my oldest son who hasn't been sick in six years woke up with a stomach bug), who are your final four and champion.

I have Villanova, Gonzaga, Louisville and North Carolina with Gonzaga taking down the Tarheels.

I never take Gonzaga even to the final four, but this Gonzaga team can beat you multiple ways and have a good defense. Just something about them (And maybe wishful thinking that a blue blood doesn't win).

I went with gonzaga, unc, duke and oregon. Thought about going with louisville but their second round matchup is scary. I hate taking final four teams with 3 scary games. I don't think unc gets tested before the elite 8. Their region is strong but the strength is at the bottom. I think the zags will be tested in the sweet 16 but still like them. They've been the best team all year.

SMU, Gonzaga, UNC, Louisville

Zags win.

Duke- few threats.
Zona - think ND can knock off the Zags.
KU- though I can see the Purdue/ISU winner just as easily.
UCLA- after UC they don't run into anyone predicated on D.

Duke/UCLA

Duke
Kansas
North Carolina
Arizona

Duke vs. Kansas

Duke

Coach K has the Dookies peaking at the right time. IMO, they are one, if not the most, talented teams in the country. They are in the select group to have the horses to win it all. You can only pick one so I went with them.

I think Duke is the team to beat right now....

Nova, Zags, JayHawks and Toothless Cal Boys

With Cal Boys winning all.

Duke was a 4 seed last week. A good run in a consecutive day tournament and the experts all whine that Duke wasn't a #1 seed. I say they never reach the Final Four.

Have not been very impressed with the PAC-12 all year. UCLA gets press because of one player and Oregon has a top player injured. That leaves just Arizona, and I'm not buying them either.

West: Gonzaga due to no better alternative in the weakest region.
East: Villanova since I am not feeling Duke and won't pick Baylor or West Virginia.
Midwest: Kansas or Louisville. Going with the team that $ucks.
South: North Carolina should survive Kentucky here.

Outside chances:
West: Don't see many. Maybe Notre Dame?
East: Hate to seem an AAC homer, but SMU has a real shot.
Midwest: I really like Iowa State's draw. Rhode Island is intriguing, but I don't think they could get past Louisville.
South: Butler has a good draw. Wichita State intrigues me, though I think they may lose to Dayton.

i don't thin UCLA will be in the final four...whether UC beats them or not. I think some of you are giving them too much credit.

(03-13-2017 06:12 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  i don't thin UCLA will be in the final four...whether UC beats them or not. I think some of you are giving them too much credit.

They have some serious talent in Ball and Leaf (Who is banged up, but guessing will be fine), plus Alford is a great shooter and they supposedly have 3 1st round NBA picks for the upcoming draft if they leave. They are young and have a suspect defense, but apparently have been doing a little better of late. I've seen them a few times and they are very impressive, but also haven't played against a real good defense. We will need to bring our A game, but we can certainly beat them.

UCLA fans seem to be looking ahead to UNC as they figured we will be a cake walk with no offense and figure we probably will lose in the 1st round anyway. they already beat UK at Rupp, so they figure neutral court they will destroy the wildcats. Honestly I think UK is the better team right now and UCLA hasn't exactly been blowing away the competition.

(03-13-2017 07:21 PM)BigDawg Wrote:  

(03-13-2017 06:12 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  i don't thin UCLA will be in the final four...whether UC beats them or not. I think some of you are giving them too much credit.

They have some serious talent in Ball and Leaf (Who is banged up, but guessing will be fine), plus Alford is a great shooter and they supposedly have 3 1st round NBA picks for the upcoming draft if they leave. They are young and have a suspect defense, but apparently have been doing a little better of late. I've seen them a few times and they are very impressive, but also haven't played against a real good defense. We will need to bring our A game, but we can certainly beat them.

UCLA fans seem to be looking ahead to UNC as they figured we will be a cake walk with no offense and figure we probably will lose in the 1st round anyway. they already beat UK at Rupp, so they figure neutral court they will destroy the wildcats. Honestly I think UK is the better team right now and UCLA hasn't exactly been blowing away the competition.

blah blah blah
yup...all that and they are just a 3 seed

In my bracket at work I have Arizona, SMU, Kansas and UCLA with Arizona beating UCLA for the title. I think we can beat UCLA Sunday but I usually pick against cincy because a lot of people around here are homers and have them going far. It's a win-win for me because I either get my alma mater in at least the sweet 16 or my bracket will remain relevant into the second weekend and CBB will hold my interest for the rest of the tournament.

Beware of unbalanced teams for deep run. It's not offense or defense that wins in March, it is balance. We've had a couple champions a little further down in offensive numbers, but every champion for the last couple decades has been a top 25 kenpom defense. Almost every champion is top 20 in kenpom adj offense and adj defense. It's no surprise that the teams that go furthest are the teams that can survive a down game on one side of the basketball (whether it's because they run up against a hot shooting team, or maybe they are cold one game). To this end I don't like UCLA. I'm not huge on Iowa State (though I have them in the sweet 16 because of their draw), not huge on Kansas for title purposes though they have a good draw and could make the final four, Duke even worries me a bit, but they are the most talented team and playing well.

(03-14-2017 06:41 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Beware of unbalanced teams for deep run. It's not offense or defense that wins in March, it is balance. We've had a couple champions a little further down in offensive numbers, but every champion for the last couple decades has been a top 25 kenpom defense. Almost every champion is top 20 in kenpom adj offense and adj defense.

Do you happen to have a list of the teams in the field that meet this criteria?

Edit: and for the topic I've got Kansas, UNC, Arizona, SMU. Going way out in a limb on SMU, but I think they if can get past Duke, their defense will carry them past Villanova. One bad night of officiating will kill their chances though...

(03-14-2017 07:02 AM)horsefeathers Wrote:  

(03-14-2017 06:41 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Beware of unbalanced teams for deep run. It's not offense or defense that wins in March, it is balance. We've had a couple champions a little further down in offensive numbers, but every champion for the last couple decades has been a top 25 kenpom defense. Almost every champion is top 20 in kenpom adj offense and adj defense.

Do you happen to have a list of the teams in the field that meet this criteria?

Edit: and for the topic I've got Kansas, UNC, Arizona, SMU. Going way out in a limb on SMU, but I think they if can get past Duke, their defense will carry them past Villanova. One bad night of officiating will kill their chances though...

Top 20 Adj Off and Adj Defense: Gonzaga, Villanova, Kentucky, Wichita State.

If you expand it to top 25 in both you add: UNC, Louisville, Baylor, Purdue, Oregon and Florida State

(03-14-2017 07:11 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-14-2017 07:02 AM)horsefeathers Wrote:  

(03-14-2017 06:41 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Beware of unbalanced teams for deep run. It's not offense or defense that wins in March, it is balance. We've had a couple champions a little further down in offensive numbers, but every champion for the last couple decades has been a top 25 kenpom defense. Almost every champion is top 20 in kenpom adj offense and adj defense.

Do you happen to have a list of the teams in the field that meet this criteria?

Edit: and for the topic I've got Kansas, UNC, Arizona, SMU. Going way out in a limb on SMU, but I think they if can get past Duke, their defense will carry them past Villanova. One bad night of officiating will kill their chances though...

Top 20 Adj Off and Adj Defense: Gonzaga, Villanova, Kentucky, Wichita State.

If you expand it to top 25 in both you add: UNC, Louisville, Baylor, Purdue, Oregon and Florida State

If you expand it to 35, you add Cincinnati to the list.

The 2 teams that I believe will wreck the bracket 1 way or another are Virginia and ND. Princeton is a good team and ND drew that dreaded Thursday noon game. Virginia drew a dangerous UNC Wilmington team and sometimes forgets to score. However, I believe these are 2 teams that the sky is the limit if they survive the first weekend.

(03-14-2017 08:17 AM)uccheese Wrote:  The 2 teams that I believe will wreck the bracket 1 way or another are Virginia and ND. Princeton is a good team and ND drew that dreaded Thursday noon game. Virginia drew a dangerous UNC Wilmington team and sometimes forgets to score. However, I believe these are 2 teams that the sky is the limit if they survive the first weekend.

I really like that UNCW team but hate their chances against UVA. UVA has flaws offensively, but they can really frustrate teams that depend on tempo and forcing turnovers. Look at the way they have owned Pitino in Louisville in recent years (including a sweep this year). I think that's a bad matchup for UNCW (hope I'm wrong).

I think Princeton has a decent shot against ND but would need ND to have a somewhat off shooting night.

(03-14-2017 07:11 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(03-14-2017 07:02 AM)horsefeathers Wrote:  

(03-14-2017 06:41 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Beware of unbalanced teams for deep run. It's not offense or defense that wins in March, it is balance. We've had a couple champions a little further down in offensive numbers, but every champion for the last couple decades has been a top 25 kenpom defense. Almost every champion is top 20 in kenpom adj offense and adj defense.

Do you happen to have a list of the teams in the field that meet this criteria?

Edit: and for the topic I've got Kansas, UNC, Arizona, SMU. Going way out in a limb on SMU, but I think they if can get past Duke, their defense will carry them past Villanova. One bad night of officiating will kill their chances though...

Top 20 Adj Off and Adj Defense: Gonzaga, Villanova, Kentucky, Wichita State.

If you expand it to top 25 in both you add: UNC, Louisville, Baylor, Purdue, Oregon and Florida State

Thanks for the info!

UK is an odd one for me. There are times they look downright unstoppable, but maybe it has been the weak SEC they have been playing. Monk is the kind of player that just doesn't miss clutch shots, and that is handy to have in March.

I am not sold on Duke yet. I still think their frontcourt is weak, and defense is mediocre. They will go as far as Tatum can take them.

Gonzaga and Nova look like the most consistent and we'll balanced teams to me.