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Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick
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TigerSeth Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick
Are his eyes open or is he taking another nap?
03-25-2017 11:15 AM
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Tiger87 Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick
(03-23-2017 09:33 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(03-23-2017 04:33 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The mean is fine to use. Not enough data to get deeper. The problem is that the 3-star pool is a big population, and there is a large standard deviation within, when you start looking at how the pan out in college. That's where you hope our evaluation is better than the other guys, and we're getting the right 3's.

Just like as I nailed 1st year numbers for Damien Wilson, Shaq, Clergeot, Chad, Dom Woodson, and a couple others we can sit back and time will tell.

Hey, I'm agreeing that the mean is - a good indicator in year 1 at least. There is a high margin of error, due to the standard deviation. But it's really the best we can do sitting here with limited data.

But let's be truthful. I'm certainly not wasting time to look it up. You pat yourself on the back for getting close with 5 players. Are those the only ones you've ever made predictions on, or are you cherry picking?
03-27-2017 12:40 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick
(03-27-2017 12:40 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  
(03-23-2017 09:33 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  
(03-23-2017 04:33 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  The mean is fine to use. Not enough data to get deeper. The problem is that the 3-star pool is a big population, and there is a large standard deviation within, when you start looking at how the pan out in college. That's where you hope our evaluation is better than the other guys, and we're getting the right 3's.

Just like as I nailed 1st year numbers for Damien Wilson, Shaq, Clergeot, Chad, Dom Woodson, and a couple others we can sit back and time will tell.

Hey, I'm agreeing that the mean is - a good indicator in year 1 at least. There is a high margin of error, due to the standard deviation. But it's really the best we can do sitting here with limited data.

But let's be truthful. I'm certainly not wasting time to look it up. You pat yourself on the back for getting close with 5 players. Are those the only ones you've ever made predictions on, or are you cherry picking?

For the 1000th time, I'm not cherry picking.

I'm simply stating that one can BLINDLY pick any c/o 2017 kid, find his recruiting ranking, look back at the previous rankings at that spot for the past four or five years in that range (applicable to that position) and have a damn good indicator of how that player will perform pts/reb/asst wise as a frosh.

For example, Jamal Johnson is ranked 158 this year.

Lets go back the past 4 years and look at guys ranked 153-163 who are swingmen.

Vincent Edwards (Purdue) 8.8 ppg 4.8 rpg
Xavier Sneed (KSU) 8.7 ppg 3.1 rpg
Yoeli Childs (BYU) 8.4 ppg 8.1 rpg
Payton Banks (PSU) 7.2 ppg 2.8 rpg

Trey Lowe (Temple) 4.8 ppg 1.5 rpg
Nick Blair (Idaho) 3.6 ppg 2.4 rpg
Jeff Garrett (signed w/ Bama, went JUCO then to NKU) 3.4 ppg 4.4 rpg
Christian Matthews (Ga. Tech) 3.4 ppg 0.3 rpg
Kevin Marfo (GW) 2.9 ppg 2.1 rpg
Chance Murray (ASU) 2.4 ppg 0.6 apg
Tevario Miller (A&M) 2.4 ppg 3.1 rpg

Marcanvis Hymon (Ole Miss) 1.2 ppg 1.2 rpg
Brodricks Jones (UTEP) 1.2 ppg 1.4 rpg
Roger Moute a Bidias (Cal) 0.2 ppg 0.9 rpg
Reginald Todd (not playing basketball)
Ronnie Harrell (Creighton) Redshirted


You have your high folks and low folks. The mid range is somewhere between 2.4 and 4.8 ppg. Basically Blair, Garrett, or Matthews.

We can hope that you get a Vincent Edwards, or you can fret that it will be Bidias, or you can likely expect Garrett.
03-27-2017 04:38 PM
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EricSigEpTNBeta183 Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick
You just can't do that . . . for example you actually have one of my guys who i work with strength and conditioning wise on your list (small world) . . . Trey Lowe (Who CJP called about as well, would have been a great fit at Memphis), do you know why that's his average? bc he was in a car accident and missed the remainder of his year. What you are saying just isn't factually true. I went thru several years trying to find a correlation and the numbers are all over the place.
03-27-2017 08:02 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick
(03-27-2017 08:02 PM)EricSigEpTNBeta183 Wrote:  You just can't do that . . . for example you actually have one of my guys who i work with strength and conditioning wise on your list (small world) . . . Trey Lowe (Who CJP called about as well, would have been a great fit at Memphis), do you know why that's his average? bc he was in a car accident and missed the remainder of his year. What you are saying just isn't factually true. I went thru several years trying to find a correlation and the numbers are all over the place.

There is no "correlation." There is a consistent "range of expectations" that players slotted in any particular range can be expected to achieve.

I don't know why this is so hard to grasp for some people.
03-27-2017 10:22 PM
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EricSigEpTNBeta183 Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick
Because what you are saying isn't true. The number 50 ranked G this past year isn't putting up the same numbers a the 50th rank guard the year before and the year before that. There will be some that are similar but that is just statistical randomness. You CANNOT predict how a player is going to perform strictly due to his ranking. There are so many factors involved, perfect example was Trey. I'll give you another example . . . say the 200th ranked player (I get most rankings don't go that far but stick with me) goes to Savannah State, that may be their top recruit and their leading scorer however if he goes to a school like say Memphis, he may not even seen the court for more than a few minutes a game, follow me? There are too many factors involved . . .
03-28-2017 05:54 PM
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salukiblue Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick
(03-28-2017 05:54 PM)EricSigEpTNBeta183 Wrote:  Because what you are saying isn't true. The number 50 ranked G this past year isn't putting up the same numbers a the 50th rank guard the year before and the year before that. There will be some that are similar but that is just statistical randomness. You CANNOT predict how a player is going to perform strictly due to his ranking. There are so many factors involved, perfect example was Trey. I'll give you another example . . . say the 200th ranked player (I get most rankings don't go that far but stick with me) goes to Savannah State, that may be their top recruit and their leading scorer however if he goes to a school like say Memphis, he may not even seen the court for more than a few minutes a game, follow me? There are too many factors involved . . .

I have never said #50 = #50.

Even in this post, I note that you take the five above and below the number, then look at about five years of players at a similar position. That will yield about 10-15 players.

Then you look at the median performances. That will give you a pretty good gauge on what to EXPECT. Not what the performance WILL BE, but where your expectations should be.

And like I have noted before, it's very similar to the NBA draft. You pick any draft spot and you look back at the performances around that spot the previous few years to get an idea of what sort of output that new pick will have.

I also liken it to weather forecasts for any certain day of the year.

You wanna have a good idea of what the weather should be like on April 10th?

Go to the weather history for April 8th-12th for the past five years. The average hi/lo is 72 and 51.

If you go back at look at about the 20 data points (4 days x 5 years) you'll find extremes (88 degree high and 55 degree high) but most temperatures fall between 70 and 75.

So, sure you can guess 88 will be high this April 10th, but you have a much better chance of not being disappointed if you plan on it being 74 degrees.
(This post was last modified: 03-29-2017 09:00 AM by salukiblue.)
03-29-2017 08:56 AM
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Unionman76 Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Tubby out tonight looking at 6'8 Jordan Hardwick


03-29-2017 01:09 PM
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