(03-03-2017 11:46 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 11:43 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  100% yes.

Pull the rug out from the AAC plans: get UConn and Dayton.


Only thing with this is at 12 you can no longer get a double round-robin at 20 conf games.

If UConn wanted to be in the NBE they'd already be there.

Not necessarily. They're still cashing residual checks from the breakup of the OBE, so right now the American is financially he best option for them. My sense is they're biding their time while the money lasts to get a sense of what the next 5-10 years of realignment will look like and figure out what the AAC's next TV deal is likely to look like before they decide what they want to do. If the money on the next deal is at least more or less equivalent to what they're getting now including the residual money then the AAC probably works well enough, but if it's flat then all the sudden NBE/Football Indy may become a necessity simply to tread water financially.

(03-03-2017 07:18 PM)Bogg Wrote:  If the money on the next deal is at least more or less equivalent to what they're getting now including the residual money then the AAC probably works well enough, but if it's flat then all the sudden NBE/Football Indy may become a necessity simply to tread water financially.

As brands, the following 10 match up quite favorably to the C7+3 in terms of basketball credibility/tradition.

Wichita State
VCU
UConn
Memphis
Cincinnati
Temple
Dayton
Houston
SMU
Tulsa

I simply can't envision an environment in which that kind of move makes financial sense (without even addressing indy in FB without a Nationwide fanbase like BYU/ND/Navy). Fox is hemorrhaging money on their deal with the NBE.

(03-03-2017 07:38 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 07:18 PM)Bogg Wrote:  If the money on the next deal is at least more or less equivalent to what they're getting now including the residual money then the AAC probably works well enough, but if it's flat then all the sudden NBE/Football Indy may become a necessity simply to tread water financially.

As brands, the following 10 match up quite favorably to the C7+3 in terms of basketball credibility/tradition.

Wichita State
VCU
UConn
Memphis
Cincinnati
Temple
Dayton
Houston
SMU
Tulsa

I simply can't envision an environment in which that kind of move makes financial sense (without even addressing indy in FB without a Nationwide fanbase like BYU/ND/Navy). Fox is hemorrhaging money on their deal with the NBE.

Like I said, it all depends on the American's next TV deal. If they get a nice bump and the money's the same either way then UConn probably stays put, but if the American keeps paying out for all sports half of what the Big East does in basketball-only, the financials of it aren't too hard to understand. Anything football brings in (and Fox would likely grease the wheels simply to get the UConn men and women in-house instead of another program for the same price) is gravy.

(03-03-2017 06:16 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 06:04 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  Schools go in cycles folks. Wichita isn't going to dominate the Valley forever. A-10 isn't going to crumple because VCU is gone. Both leagues have strong basketball programs that some are down right now. Won't be that way forever.

That's what I was trying to get at.

At least for the A10, you have GW, UMass, St Louis, St Joes

Other than Davidson which until a couple years ago dominated the weak SoCon, VCU and Dayton have the most appearances and have the most NCAA tournament wins since 2000 among the A10 members. They also have the two largest basketball budgets in the conference. VCU spends close to 2x what Bonnies, La Salle and GMU spend. Having members such as Xavier, Temple, Dayton and VCU that run their programs like high majors is what has allowed the conference to generate as many at-larges as it has. SLU and UMass would pretty much be the lone remaining schools that even attempt to do that.

The A10 has been a 3.25 bid conference over the past 25 years. Take out VCU and Dayton and the A10 is probably about a 1.75 or slightly less bid conference. Too much dead weight at the bottom and too many teams such as UMass that go on long tournament appearance droughts. The A10 would be seriously weakened because the replacement teams (Siena, Iona) don't have the resources to compete the way Dayton and VCU do.

(03-03-2017 06:04 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  Schools go in cycles folks. Wichita isn't going to dominate the Valley forever. A-10 isn't going to crumple because VCU is gone. Both leagues have strong basketball programs that some are down right now. Won't be that way forever.

The A10 has more hope than the MVC, as it is much deeper. The MVC only has I'll St, UNI, and Mo St that are sometimes challengers. It's no wonder why the Bradley President was fretting about a DI basketball split. If Wichita St leaves, a DI split has effectively already happened to the MVC. Creighton and WSU were what the MVC powers were. There is no sign that any other MVC school will step up.

(03-03-2017 12:54 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 12:51 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 11:46 AM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 11:43 AM)MplsBison Wrote:  100% yes.

Pull the rug out from the AAC plans: get UConn and Dayton.


Only thing with this is at 12 you can no longer get a double round-robin at 20 conf games.

If UConn wanted to be in the NBE they'd already be there.

And if ESPN wanted the AAC to be a power conference they'd already be there.

Well, Rutgers lucked its way into a power conference

Who a. I wouldn't feed that useless troll if I were you

(03-03-2017 02:43 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  The one thing I do find funny, the AAC claimed it was great basketball conference when it was created. Why are the needing to to upgrade? Maybe they should just try the strategy of telling everyone their a Power Basketball Conference, not a struggling mid major. I mean their fans think there a G4 group even though they are part of the G5 conferences.

I've heard that preparation H is very effective for butthurt.

(03-03-2017 03:50 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  This is a show me the money expansion. I don't see where the extra money comes from to pay these schools.

What we are seeing is something similar to Football. The 2nd tier conferences, which are not prominently promoted and don;t have a digital network with a major partner, are all falling down to 2-3 decent teams, where recruits head, and the others stink. The A10 and AAC were both much stronger a few years ago, but this trend hit them. Several schools in both fall in the category of "strong mid-major powers" or in the case of Temple, UConn and Cincy "major" (replaced by Butler, Xavier, and Creighton). These conferences now fall into the WCC category, where there is room for one at-large in a good year, possibly two every now and again. Going to 14 like the A10 now wont change the dynamic for the American. It will give them a couple year boost, and then back to the same two bid conference, just 14 mouths instead of 11.

The AAC almost certainly has a 75% football, 25% Basketball distribution. While the Big East can split $30m 10 ways for Basketball, the AAC is looking at what, a $20m contract, so $5m for Basketball. Divide that 14 ways to get the share for WSU, DU, VCU respectively. That comes to $357K. The A10 is almost $300K.

Sure if I'm the AAC I make the move, and hope I get a better media deal (hey isn't that why they added Tulane, ECU, SMU, Tulsa, and Memphis? and how did that work out?). But If I'm Dayton or Virginia Commonwealth, unless the AAC actually has a big media deal and is willing to pay my exit fee and discount my entrance fee, that is a lot of money up front for less than $100K revenue per year. And if they take into account the nature of the direction of the NCAA bids and 2nd tier conferences, that incentive to move is not great., especially for Dayton with Big East ambitions (steep AAC exit fees in the future).

It's amazing how utterly ill informed your opinions about the AAC are. Maybe you should should ease up on your disdain for the AAC and think a little bit and add something worthwhile to one of these threads.

(03-03-2017 07:38 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 07:18 PM)Bogg Wrote:  If the money on the next deal is at least more or less equivalent to what they're getting now including the residual money then the AAC probably works well enough, but if it's flat then all the sudden NBE/Football Indy may become a necessity simply to tread water financially.

As brands, the following 10 match up quite favorably to the C7+3 in terms of basketball credibility/tradition.

Wichita State
VCU
UConn
Memphis
Cincinnati
Temple
Dayton
Houston
SMU
Tulsa

I simply can't envision an environment in which that kind of move makes financial sense (without even addressing indy in FB without a Nationwide fanbase like BYU/ND/Navy). Fox is hemorrhaging money on their deal with the NBE.

NCAA Tournament Appearances/Sweet 16's/Elite Eight's/Final Four's/National Championships

Big East
Butler - 14, 5, 2, 2, 0
Creighton - 19, 3, 1, 0, 0
DePaul - 18, 8, 3, 4, 0
Georgetown - 30, 11, 9, 5, 1
Marquette - 31, 16, 7, 3, 1
Providence - 18, 5, 4, 2, 0
St. Johns - 28, 9, 6, 2, 0
Seton Hall - 10, 4, 2, 1, 0
Villanova - 35, 16, 12, 4, 2
Xavier - 26, 7, 2, 0, 0

Total: 219, 94, 44, 23, 4
Averages: 21.9, 9.4, 4.4, 2.3, .4

American:
Wichita State: 13, 6, 4, 2, 0
VCU: 15, 1, 1, 1, 0
UConn: 33, 18, 11, 5, 4
Memphis: 20, 6, 4, 1, 0
Cincinnati: 30, 13, 8, 6, 2
Temple: 32, 7, 7, 2, 0
Dayton: 17, 7, 3, 1, 0
Houston: 19, 10, 5, 5, 0
SMU: 11, 6, 2, 1, 0
Tulsa: 16, 4, 1, 0, 0

Total: 206, 78, 46, 23, 6
Averages: 20.6, 7.8, 4.6, 2.3, .6

If you add up all of the tournament appearances and tournament success, you actually do find that the American really does close the gap with the Big East with the three additions of Dayton, Wichita State and VCU. They are very similar in terms of totals and averages (although averages most certainly are lowered when you factor in Tulane, East Carolina, UCF and USF - but these additions are meant to strengthen the middle of the conference, and negate the negative impact of the bottom dragging down the top).

So if the MVC loses Wichita State, where would they go from there?

(03-03-2017 10:27 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  So if the MVC loses Wichita State, where would they go from there?

Mo St might look for a new home too if WSU leaves. The MVC probably gives Milwaukee and Murray St some looks. A grand slam pick would be St Louis, but don't think the Billikens would be at all interested.

The A10 might look too. Think JMU, UNC-Wilmington, Siena and Stony Brook could get some looks. JMU hasn't had a great basketball history, nor has Stony, but they are worth an inquiry just based on potential.

This is my opinion: I'm in favor of all three joining, especially if all of them join the conference in football, too. That would mean Wichita State would have to reinstate football, which they've shown interest in doing. That would also mean that Dayton and VCU would have to upgrade their football facilities. All of this can be done in a few years, I think.

But hey, I'm in favor of every member of the league being full members anyway. So of course, I want Navy to join as a full member, too. (They won't, but I'd like for them to.)

(03-03-2017 10:12 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 07:38 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 07:18 PM)Bogg Wrote:  If the money on the next deal is at least more or less equivalent to what they're getting now including the residual money then the AAC probably works well enough, but if it's flat then all the sudden NBE/Football Indy may become a necessity simply to tread water financially.

As brands, the following 10 match up quite favorably to the C7+3 in terms of basketball credibility/tradition.

Wichita State
VCU
UConn
Memphis
Cincinnati
Temple
Dayton
Houston
SMU
Tulsa

I simply can't envision an environment in which that kind of move makes financial sense (without even addressing indy in FB without a Nationwide fanbase like BYU/ND/Navy). Fox is hemorrhaging money on their deal with the NBE.

NCAA Tournament Appearances/Sweet 16's/Elite Eight's/Final Four's/National Championships

Big East
Butler - 14, 5, 2, 2, 0
Creighton - 19, 3, 1, 0, 0
DePaul - 18, 8, 3, 4, 0
Georgetown - 30, 11, 9, 5, 1
Marquette - 31, 16, 7, 3, 1
Providence - 18, 5, 4, 2, 0
St. Johns - 28, 9, 6, 2, 0
Seton Hall - 10, 4, 2, 1, 0
Villanova - 35, 16, 12, 4, 2
Xavier - 26, 7, 2, 0, 0

Total: 219, 94, 44, 23, 4
Averages: 21.9, 9.4, 4.4, 2.3, .4

American:
Wichita State: 13, 6, 4, 2, 0
VCU: 15, 1, 1, 1, 0
UConn: 33, 18, 11, 5, 4
Memphis: 20, 6, 4, 1, 0
Cincinnati: 30, 13, 8, 6, 2
Temple: 32, 7, 7, 2, 0
Dayton: 17, 7, 3, 1, 0
Houston: 19, 10, 5, 5, 0
SMU: 11, 6, 2, 1, 0
Tulsa: 16, 4, 1, 0, 0

Total: 206, 78, 46, 23, 6
Averages: 20.6, 7.8, 4.6, 2.3, .6

If you add up all of the tournament appearances and tournament success, you actually do find that the American really does close the gap with the Big East with the three additions of Dayton, Wichita State and VCU. They are very similar in terms of totals and averages (although averages most certainly are lowered when you factor in Tulane, East Carolina, UCF and USF - but these additions are meant to strengthen the middle of the conference, and negate the negative impact of the bottom dragging down the top).

Thank you for the data. Interesting to look at and compare. I am assuming you remove the 'vacated' wins from the list as I know Memphis had been to the NCAA more then 20 times, have more sweet sixteen, elite eight and three final fours.

The MVC will look at the same schools the went through the vetting process (campus visits even) the last time when they added LUC. They are:

UMKC
UIC
Valparaiso
Oral Roberts

One school that could be added to the mix is UW-Milwaukee, since LUC gives then Chicago presence already. Politics of the league would lead me to think replacing a public school would require a public school, unless a Dayton or Saint Louis insisted on joining -- which seems somewhere out beyond implausible (well UMKC joined the WAC, so temporary insanity infecting entire school leadership has happened). That said I think it would be a public school

1. Illinois-Chicago
2. Missouri-Kansas City
3. Wisconsin-Milwaukee

I'm sure ORU and Valpo will have conversations, as will a few others, but they wont get anywhere. The key is adding markets (or increasing Chicago presence), and recruiting, while balancing the private-public. Of the three, I think UIC is the most likely, although I can see UWM moving in front easily. The questions about KC from 2013 are still there today.

There is one more possibility, which is adding nobody, and splitting league revenues 9 ways instead of 10. The lack of big media presence is precisely why Wichita State would be moving. So why add a mouth?

No ... not necessarily.

Wichita leaves, and is replaced by Valpo. That gives five privates (Bradley, Drake, Loyola, Valpo, Evansville) and five publics (MO St, N Iowa, S Ill, Ill St, Ind St).

Tightens up geography a bit, as well.


If MO St leaves, then you could possibly see them make a hard push for St Louis, should Dayton and VCU bow out. But failing that, then UMKC would make sense.


If you really want to take Oral Roberts from the Summit, please do!

(03-04-2017 01:35 AM)virgosports Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 10:12 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 07:38 PM)BigEastHomer Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 07:18 PM)Bogg Wrote:  If the money on the next deal is at least more or less equivalent to what they're getting now including the residual money then the AAC probably works well enough, but if it's flat then all the sudden NBE/Football Indy may become a necessity simply to tread water financially.

As brands, the following 10 match up quite favorably to the C7+3 in terms of basketball credibility/tradition.

Wichita State
VCU
UConn
Memphis
Cincinnati
Temple
Dayton
Houston
SMU
Tulsa

I simply can't envision an environment in which that kind of move makes financial sense (without even addressing indy in FB without a Nationwide fanbase like BYU/ND/Navy). Fox is hemorrhaging money on their deal with the NBE.

NCAA Tournament Appearances/Sweet 16's/Elite Eight's/Final Four's/National Championships

Big East
Butler - 14, 5, 2, 2, 0
Creighton - 19, 3, 1, 0, 0
DePaul - 18, 8, 3, 4, 0
Georgetown - 30, 11, 9, 5, 1
Marquette - 31, 16, 7, 3, 1
Providence - 18, 5, 4, 2, 0
St. Johns - 28, 9, 6, 2, 0
Seton Hall - 10, 4, 2, 1, 0
Villanova - 35, 16, 12, 4, 2
Xavier - 26, 7, 2, 0, 0

Total: 219, 94, 44, 23, 4
Averages: 21.9, 9.4, 4.4, 2.3, .4

American:
Wichita State: 13, 6, 4, 2, 0
VCU: 15, 1, 1, 1, 0
UConn: 33, 18, 11, 5, 4
Memphis: 20, 6, 4, 1, 0
Cincinnati: 30, 13, 8, 6, 2
Temple: 32, 7, 7, 2, 0
Dayton: 17, 7, 3, 1, 0
Houston: 19, 10, 5, 5, 0
SMU: 11, 6, 2, 1, 0
Tulsa: 16, 4, 1, 0, 0

Total: 206, 78, 46, 23, 6
Averages: 20.6, 7.8, 4.6, 2.3, .6

If you add up all of the tournament appearances and tournament success, you actually do find that the American really does close the gap with the Big East with the three additions of Dayton, Wichita State and VCU. They are very similar in terms of totals and averages (although averages most certainly are lowered when you factor in Tulane, East Carolina, UCF and USF - but these additions are meant to strengthen the middle of the conference, and negate the negative impact of the bottom dragging down the top).

Thank you for the data. Interesting to look at and compare. I am assuming you remove the 'vacated' wins from the list as I know Memphis had been to the NCAA more then 20 times, have more sweet sixteen, elite eight and three final fours.

Correct. Memphis had some vacated appearances, as did Villanova.

If Wichita leaves, I'm not sure the public/private balance will mean much. We know that UNI, Illinois State and MSU have previously looked into and studied FBS football. Not saying any offers would be available for them to move up, but I'd expect increased pressure and exploration of trying to find a new home. The CFP cap of 10 probably limits that. UNI and ISU would both be interested by the MAC, but it's pretty full. MSU could be approached by the Belt, but do they need another? Either way, those three will be looking for a way out as well. The MVC will eventually end up as a mostly private, midwest bus league.

Valpo and UIC will probably be at the top of the list to replace Wichita. UMKC will get some consideration to because it's in KC. And with the MVC losing both Creighton and Wichita it's KC relevance would greatly decline. I could see them considering Milwaukee. If they were smart, they'd just give in and go after the XDSU's and then add Valpo and be at 12. That'd be the best thing they could do to try and make the conference as strong as possible. Won't happen.

And SLU has had an open offer to join for 20 years. They're not coming.

does having someone else interested in Dayton make them more attractive to the BE? Does the BE hold out and pull a TCU-B12 move at the last minute if they need to?

I'm glad that won't happen, Sub.

XDSU's have a great thing going in the Summit. The Dakota 4 are finally getting back together (should've moved as one), we have the tournaments mostly in the Dakotas, our fans are the best, and we have some great ancillary partners in Denver and Omaha.

(03-03-2017 10:27 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  So if the MVC loses Wichita State, where would they go from there?

Honestly under this scenario the MVC may split along Private/Public lines with the other MVFC teams joining the Publics and to start Valpo and Detroit on the Private side. They will look at Dayton and SLU (but will not get them) as well Belmont and Oral Roberts.