Honest question here...

Is there a scenario which finds UC "on the bubble"?

And I do mean this as a truly honest question... If we were to drop the next three games (vs. Houston,@UConn, and the 1st round AAC tourney)...meaning we finish on a 4-game skid...would UC find itself on the bubble for the NCAA?

Umm. No.

No, probably drop us to the 9-10 range. None of those losses would really be that bad. Now say we lost to Tulane, uSF, and ECU, then maybe.

(02-26-2017 10:03 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  Honest question here...

Is there a scenario which finds UC "on the bubble"?

And I do mean this as a truly honest question... If we were to drop the next three games (vs. Houston,@UConn, and the 1st round AAC tourney)...meaning we finish on a 4-game skid...would UC find itself on the bubble for the NCAA?

We'd fall a bunch of seed lines, but wouldn't really be on the bubble.

So I asked the question and I think it's been answered.

Thanks!

Ran this scenario through the RPIWizard--- losses to UH and UConn and 1st round loss to UCF in tourney. UC's rpi would still be 23 with a sos of 66.

(02-26-2017 10:03 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  Honest question here...

Is there a scenario which finds UC "on the bubble"?

And I do mean this as a truly honest question... If we were to drop the next three games (vs. Houston,@UConn, and the 1st round AAC tourney)...meaning we finish on a 4-game skid...would UC find itself on the bubble for the NCAA?

There's not a scenario that puts us "on the bubble", but there is a VERY likely scenario that forces a first round exit....go up against a team that plays an effective zone and go cold from beyond the arc.

A team like Syracuse or Temple would present that scenario.

The bubble is so god awful I think we would still be safe, but we would be a very low seed if the scenario took place. The tournament committee has looked upon the AAC like it is the MEAC or SWAC conference the past couple of seasons.

Maybe, beat Houston and UC is probably going to be no worse than 6 or 7 seed even if the they drop the final two after that. Xavier is on the bubble right now, despite what the so called expects think. Can't ignore non-power conference teams too with huge win totals that don't win their conference tournament.

(02-27-2017 09:38 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Maybe, beat Houston and UC is probably going to be no worse than 6 or 7 seed even if the they drop the final two after that. Xavier is on the bubble right now, despite what the so called expects think. Can't ignore non-power conference teams too with huge win totals that don't win their conference tournament.

Such as who? Weird year for the small leagues this year. Almost nobody has done anything. AAC can steal a bid. MAYBE the mvc. Then who? BYU winning the WCC somehow? Mid Tenn getting an at large? Someone weird winning the A10? That's the only ones I could come up with at all. The options for bid stealing are lower than I've ever seen it unless we start getting like random teams win P5 tourneys.

(02-27-2017 10:09 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(02-27-2017 09:38 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Maybe, beat Houston and UC is probably going to be no worse than 6 or 7 seed even if the they drop the final two after that. Xavier is on the bubble right now, despite what the so called expects think. Can't ignore non-power conference teams too with huge win totals that don't win their conference tournament.

Such as who? Weird year for the small leagues this year. Almost nobody has done anything. AAC can steal a bid. MAYBE the mwc. Then who? BYU winning the WCC somehow? Mid Tenn getting an at large? Someone weird winning the A10? That's the only ones I could come up with at all. The options for bid stealing are lower than I've ever seen it unless we start getting like random teams win P5 tourneys.

Agree not this year. The AAC and WCC (Though I find it hard to believe Gonzaga or St Marys wouldn't win) are the only ones that might have a chance. Wichita State maybe, but if they lose another game, they would likely be out as they are out as an at large for some. If you are concerned, go look at the bubble teams and see how many losses they have and a few are under .500 in conference and don't have many good wins and lots of bad losses. Honestly from the 8 seed down, it starts getting ugly.

If UC lost out (Which seems unlikely IMO), they still have good numbers and think then maybe they are a 7 (Maybe they fall to an 8, but that seems drastic).

No reason to panic over a bad game on the road against the top ranked defense in the country when they have a guy that was crazy hot and we missed shots and didn't match their intensity. I'd expect a ton of focus on Senior Night and I think they will want pay back against UConn for the previous losses in that building.

(02-27-2017 10:09 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(02-27-2017 09:38 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Maybe, beat Houston and UC is probably going to be no worse than 6 or 7 seed even if the they drop the final two after that. Xavier is on the bubble right now, despite what the so called expects think. Can't ignore non-power conference teams too with huge win totals that don't win their conference tournament.

Such as who? Weird year for the small leagues this year. Almost nobody has done anything. AAC can steal a bid. MAYBE the mwc. Then who? BYU winning the WCC somehow? Mid Tenn getting an at large? Someone weird winning the A10? That's the only ones I could come up with at all. The options for bid stealing are lower than I've ever seen it unless we start getting like random teams win P5 tourneys.

Nevada-Mountain West 23-6 RPI 43, likely to win MWC and finish with 25+ wins.

MTSU-Conference USA, C-USA champ has a 4-1 record against top 100 and non conference SOS of 14. Owns wins over Vandy, Ole Miss, and UNCW, RPI is 29.

UNCW-CAA, RPI of 37 and 5-3 record against the top 100. CAA is ranked higher than Missouri Valley but right under the Mountain West.

Wichita State-MVC-Awesome Kenpom numbers, nothing in the non-conference.

Illionos State-MVC, Co-champ of the Missouri Valley Conference, better RPI than Wichita State

UTA-Sun Belt, Top 40 RPI, likely champ of the Sun Belt, won at St. Mary's, played a good non-conference schedule mostly on the road.

Monmouth-Top 50 RPI, champ of the MAAC, already has 26 wins with half of them coming away from home.

Vermont-Top 50 RPI, champ of the America East, 25-5.

Valpo-Horizon co-champ has wins over Alabama, BYU, and Rhode Island.

Will every school on this list earn an at-large bid if the don't win their league? Of course not but a couple of will receive at-large bids if they slip in the conference tournament.

You also have add in Rhode Island, BYU, and Houston as teams that are a big win away from an at-large bid too.

Boise State is also lurking as potential at-large candidate if they make it too the final of the MWC tournament.

UC is no where close to the bubble and is as close a lock at this as you can get but there are enough candidates lurking out there in the high majors and mid-majors to give the middle of the pack power conference a run for their money.

In my view Wichita State is a lock based on their Kenpom numbers. MTSU is very close my book too based on the top 50 Kenpom and strong RPI numbers as well. Nevada needs to finish the deal in the regular season and make to the finals of the conference tournament to be locked in. The rest of the group is going to need to make the finals of their tournament and hope they committee smiles their way.

At the moment my mid-major at-large candidates rankings:

1. Wichita State
2. MTSU
3. Nevada
4. Illinois State
5. UNCW
6. Valpo
7. UTA
8. Monmouth
9. Vermont

No-shot but still could be seeded above the 14 line if they win their tournament

10. Akron
11. ETSU
12. Princeton
13. Bucknell

Just remember that the CAA and the MWC have a rep on the committee. BYU's AD is sitting their too so the Cougars are locked in if they make it the final of the WCC tournament.