Just finished reading 'Escape from Camp 14,' the story of a North Korean born into their most notorious prison camp who managed to escape, smuggle his way through China, and end up in the South to tell his story. One of the points the author makes towards the end was that the people of the South just don't care that much about reunification anymore, mostly because they're a nation that's not a laughingstock and has other issues to deal with. And given the costs of doing so (the author cites some studies that a merger would cost 2.5 times that of Germany's, roughly $2 trillion over 30 years, require higher taxes on the South for 60 years, and require 10% of the South's GDP to be spend on rebuilding the North indefinitely), it seems to be something that the people want and figure will happen eventually, but no one wants to pay for. Given the North's nukes and Seoul's proximity to the DMZ, reunification will almost certainly come from a collapse of the DPRK from within instead of at the hands of foreigners.

One has to wonder what Korean unification would look like if it ever happens one day. You'd have a wealthy, modern society that essentially has to subsidize their impoverished, brainwashed neighbors with the basic necessities of life. The only way I could see it going down without completely draining the South is if they were to have a provisional period of sorts where they'd subsidize the North with food and education while implementing capitalist reforms and investing in their infrastructure for a while before becoming a 'full' member once they've developed a bit. I'd guess that with the Kims gone and the human rights violations cut off that foreign aid would pick up at a remarkable rate given how unlike most many human rights victims, the North Koreans would have a competent government overseeing their rebuild.

The south also has double the population of the North.

Meanwhile west Germany had a population 6x that of east Germany, a much smaller economic gap, and yet they had problems.

It will be difficult but I think there is an overwhelming will for reunification plus the German model can act as a blueprint for how to perceive problems in advance

South Korea is better off IMO being a de facto island

In before Tom tells us why he's an expert on Korea

First step is a complete collapse of the North Korean government and not just the downfall of the Kim's. It has to be to the point that rational people with no direct benefit from propping up the established system. After that, then both sides need to be willing to reunite, and the South Koreans will need to impose some serious benchmarks on the North before wholesale absorbing them. This can't be a replication of the German Reunification. The East Germans had some rationality in their systems and education, which don't exist in North Korea. The gradual process of reunification has to be slowed down by decades.

(02-25-2017 12:57 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  First step is a complete collapse of the North Korean government and not just the downfall of the Kim's. It has to be to the point that rational people with no direct benefit from propping up the established system. After that, then both sides need to be willing to reunite, and the South Koreans will need to impose some serious benchmarks on the North before wholesale absorbing them. This can't be a replication of the German Reunification. The East Germans had some rationality in their systems and education, which don't exist in North Korea. The gradual process of reunification has to be slowed down by decades.

At some point there will be a collapse in North Korea or a civil war and at that point South Korea will re-absorb North Korea.

Given the different economic trajectories, it seems likely that the population difference (2 to 1 South) will continue to grow.

China as well as the US may well assist in the transition. It could be very profitable for China to have a prosperous Korea in its south.

It's pretty hard to fathom NK having another war.. they have no chance of winning a war against the west but the west has no chance of taking NK without a massive civilian loss of life in South Korea.

We could support China's annexation of NK. China has a history of taking over other territory, most recently Hong Kong. And they seem to want Taiwan also.

The Nomenklatura in the north know that they will have no place in a reunified Korea. They are too backwards and too rigid to even continue to govern the north after reunification. So it is hard to imagine them being willing to essentially strip themselves of a bleak future in exchange for no future. Hard to see them going peacefully.

(02-25-2017 01:12 PM)LeFlâneur Wrote:  We could support China's annexation of NK. China has a history of taking over other territory, most recently Hong Kong. And they seem to want Taiwan also.

The problem is that While people of Hong Kong and Tawian see themselves as largely Chinese the people of Korea do not see themselves that way.

Eventually the veil will be lifted and the people of NK will realize what statism has done, that will end the Kim's rule and I expect reunificatin to move forward (albeit slowly) after that.

(02-25-2017 12:11 PM)Bull_Is_Back Wrote:  In before Tom tells us why he's an expert on Korea

He drove through both North and South Korea, while living in each. Therefore he is an expert on the government and culture in both countries.

Nah, the South Koreans are extremely prejudiced against North Koreans, even the ones who escape, become educated, and work a respectable job are seen as a lower class.

(02-25-2017 11:57 AM)john01992 Wrote:  South Korea is better off IMO being a de facto island

Immediately perhaps, but what about in the long run? South Korea has a rapidly aging population and little in the way of natural resources, while the North has a much younger population (with twice as high birth rates) and an estimated $10 trillion of rare earth mineral reserves. And not having the psycho Kims in charge would allow them to probably redirect some military spending towards helping the North.

(02-25-2017 01:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  China as well as the US may well assist in the transition. It could be very profitable for China to have a prosperous Korea in its south.

It could also be very dangerous to their regime. China has never had to deal with a wealthy, capitalist nation right on their borders (unless you count Hong Kong, but it's more of a city-state than anything else). While I doubt the border region of the former North Korea will be the epitome of prosperity, having such an ideologically polarizing neighbor would likely exasperate tensions between the two. Right now Taiwan (23 million people), Japan (126), and South Korea (50) are literally or figuratively on islands, but a unified Korea (a combined 75 million people today) being right across a river is a different situation that could pose a threat.

(02-25-2017 02:17 PM)DexterDevil Wrote:  Nah, the South Koreans are extremely prejudiced against North Koreans, even the ones who escape, become educated, and work a respectable job are seen as a lower class.

That was another thing referred to in the book, and that's unfortunate. But I think a sense of moral obligation, especially among the older generations, would bring about unification should the opportunity arise out of inertia. They may not wage war to unify, but I can't see the South idly standing by if the DPRK collapses and millions of people, including long-separated family members, are thrust into chaos.

Well, we might have an answer within the next few months if things keep escalating.

(02-25-2017 11:49 AM)Love and Honor Wrote:  One has to wonder what Korean unification would look like if it ever happens one day. You'd have a wealthy, modern society that essentially has to subsidize their impoverished, brainwashed neighbors with the basic necessities of life.

True.

Also the Chinese rulers would have to give their blessing to the project. Which probably means some sort of Chinese military presence and no military presence allowed for anyone else.