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CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #1
CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
Winning on the road is a necessity in the CAA. This has to be true, because the CAA Tournament never gets played at Trask Coliseum, Matthews Arena, Kaplan Arena, or any of the other CAA venues around the league.

True, when the tournament was hosted in Richmond, there was a case to be made they VCU held "home court advantage". The same may be true for Charleston this year.

But logically, it makes sense that road record should matter as a predictor for CAA Tournament success, right?

Below are the top road teams in CAA play over the last 3 seasons and how the CAA Tournament played out. I chose just the last 3 years for 2 reasons: 1) The CAA was very different prior to 2013, and 2) The tournament was held in a neutral location (Baltimore) all 3 years.


2013-14

Delaware 7-1
Towson 6-2
W&M 4-4

Championship game: Delaware over W&M


2014-15

JMU 6-3
Northeastern 5-4
W&M 5-4
UNCW 5-4

Championship game: Northeastern over W&M


2015-16

UNCW 7-2
Hofstra 7-2
JMU 6-3

Championship game: UNCW over Hofstra


So as you can see, in each of the last 3 years, the CAA championship game paired 2 teams that had top-3 road records in league play.

But that seems obvious, right? The teams at the top tend to have good road records because they're good teams, and are title game contenders.

But this year might be a little different. Home teams have won at an extremely high rate (52-28, .650 winning %) in league play this year, meaning some very good teams have struggled to win on the road.

Just look at the gulf amongst the teams that are in the Top 6 in the standings:


2016-17

UNCW 7-2
Charleston 7-2

Towson 3-4 (2 road games left to play)
Elon 3-6
Northeastern 2-5 (2 road games left to play)
W&M 2-7


Towson can only attain a winning CAA road record if they win their final 2 road games. Elon, NU and W&M all have secured losing records on the road.

In order of concern for those 4 teams, I'd say Northeastern should have the least concern. They won a series of big road games in non-conference play (most notably Michigan State, UCONN and Vermont) and have been plagued by injuries in some of their league road losses. They're healthy now and ready to make a deep run.

Towson should be moderately concerned. They began their CAA slate with 4 straight losses, 3 of which occurred on the road, back when they very clearly weren't the same team as they are now. Still, they did lose @ Northeastern on January 28th, and their performance in their final 2 road games will be telling.

Elon and W&M should be VERY concerned, meanwhile. While some of the Tribe's recent road losses have been close games, they had no business dropping an 18-point loss to Drexel or falling to JMU. Elon managed to lose to Delaware and also got blown out by Towson on the road.

Given that UNCW and Charleston are certain to have the largest fanbases in attendance at the CAA Tournament, a hostile environment will be expected in games involving those 2 schools. The fact that both have had a lot of road success should also have some predictive value.

A tournament championship that does not pit UNCW vs. Charleston, given all of this information, would be surprising. But of course, games aren't played on paper, and this year could just as easily buck the trend. The league is deep and strong, and every game should be a dogfight.
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2017 10:32 AM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
02-23-2017 10:24 AM
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bricksnivy Offline
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Post: #2
RE: CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
(02-23-2017 10:24 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Winning on the road is a necessity in the CAA. This has to be true, because the CAA Tournament never gets played at Trask Coliseum, Matthews Arena, Kaplan Arena, or any of the other CAA venues around the league.

True, when the tournament was hosted in Richmond, there was a case to be made they VCU held "home court advantage". The same may be true for Charleston this year.

But logically, it makes sense that road record should matter as a predictor for CAA Tournament success, right?

Below are the top road teams in CAA play over the last 3 seasons and how the CAA Tournament played out. I chose just the last 3 years for 2 reasons: 1) The CAA was very different prior to 2013, and 2) The tournament was held in a neutral location (Baltimore) all 3 years.


2013-14

Delaware 7-1
Towson 6-2
W&M 4-4

Championship game: Delaware over W&M


2014-15

JMU 6-3
Northeastern 5-4
W&M 5-4
UNCW 5-4

Championship game: Northeastern over W&M


2015-16

UNCW 7-2
Hofstra 7-2
JMU 6-3

Championship game: UNCW over Hofstra


So as you can see, in each of the last 3 years, the CAA championship game paired 2 teams that had top-3 road records in league play.

But that seems obvious, right? The teams at the top tend to have good road records because they're good teams, and are title game contenders.

But this year might be a little different. Home teams have won at an extremely high rate (52-28, .650 winning %) in league play this year, meaning some very good teams have struggled to win on the road.

Just look at the gulf amongst the teams that are in the Top 6 in the standings:


2016-17

UNCW 7-2
Charleston 7-2

Towson 3-4 (2 road games left to play)
Elon 3-6
Northeastern 2-5 (2 road games left to play)
W&M 2-7


Towson can only attain a winning CAA road record if they win their final 2 road games. Elon, NU and W&M all have secured losing records on the road.

In order of concern for those 4 teams, I'd say Northeastern should have the least concern. They won a series of big road games in non-conference play (most notably Michigan State, UCONN and Vermont) and have been plagued by injuries in some of their league road losses. They're healthy now and ready to make a deep run.

Towson should be moderately concerned. They began their CAA slate with 4 straight losses, 3 of which occurred on the road, back when they very clearly weren't the same team as they are now. Still, they did lose @ Northeastern on January 28th, and their performance in their final 2 road games will be telling.

Elon and W&M should be VERY concerned, meanwhile. While some of the Tribe's recent road losses have been close games, they had no business dropping an 18-point loss to Drexel or falling to JMU. Elon managed to lose to Delaware and also got blown out by Towson on the road.

Given that UNCW and Charleston are certain to have the largest fanbases in attendance at the CAA Tournament, a hostile environment will be expected in games involving those 2 schools. The fact that both have had a lot of road success should also have some predictive value.

A tournament championship that does not pit UNCW vs. Charleston, given all of this information, would be surprising. But of course, games aren't played on paper, and this year could just as easily buck the trend. The league is deep and strong, and every game should be a dogfight.

Good stuff. The type of "analytics" that I enjoy. Nice to quantify "obvious" observations.
02-23-2017 11:32 AM
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Fletch 8 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
Seahawk Nation back at it again with the monster analysis.

You should seriously consider either a) being a part time sports writer or b) working for UNCW Athletics in some capacity
02-23-2017 11:53 AM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
(02-23-2017 11:53 AM)Fletch 8 Wrote:  Seahawk Nation back at it again with the monster analysis.

You should seriously consider either a) being a part time sports writer or b) working for UNCW Athletics in some capacity


B I've already got covered, and it's why I can't do A. I work part-time as a PA Announcer/Music coordinator for multiple UNCW sports.

Becoming a writer not only would be impossible for my schedule, but would be a conflict of interest. Which is fine by me! Journalism is rough these days.

Thanks for the kind words though! Much appreciated.
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2017 11:56 AM by Seahawk Nation 08.)
02-23-2017 11:55 AM
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CoastGuardHawk06 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
Yeah man. I echo what they said. You're pretty freaking good at this stuff!

...use a ghost name.
02-23-2017 01:30 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #6
RE: CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
Wear a mask! It works for pro wrestlers!!
02-23-2017 01:44 PM
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Seahawkhoops Offline
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Post: #7
RE: CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
(02-23-2017 01:44 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Wear a mask! It works for pro wrestlers!!

I honestly don't think there would be a conflict of interest unless you were a full time employee of the college.
02-23-2017 02:05 PM
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bricksnivy Offline
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Post: #8
RE: CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
(02-23-2017 01:44 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Wear a mask! It works for pro wrestlers!!

I like it. Rey Mysterio Jr. can be his pseudonym.
02-23-2017 04:09 PM
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geewizNU Offline
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Post: #9
RE: CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
(02-23-2017 10:24 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Winning on the road is a necessity in the CAA. This has to be true, because the CAA Tournament never gets played at Trask Coliseum, Matthews Arena, Kaplan Arena, or any of the other CAA venues around the league.

True, when the tournament was hosted in Richmond, there was a case to be made they VCU held "home court advantage". The same may be true for Charleston this year.

But logically, it makes sense that road record should matter as a predictor for CAA Tournament success, right?

Below are the top road teams in CAA play over the last 3 seasons and how the CAA Tournament played out. I chose just the last 3 years for 2 reasons: 1) The CAA was very different prior to 2013, and 2) The tournament was held in a neutral location (Baltimore) all 3 years.


2013-14

Delaware 7-1
Towson 6-2
W&M 4-4

Championship game: Delaware over W&M


2014-15

JMU 6-3
Northeastern 5-4
W&M 5-4
UNCW 5-4

Championship game: Northeastern over W&M


2015-16

UNCW 7-2
Hofstra 7-2
JMU 6-3

Championship game: UNCW over Hofstra


So as you can see, in each of the last 3 years, the CAA championship game paired 2 teams that had top-3 road records in league play.

But that seems obvious, right? The teams at the top tend to have good road records because they're good teams, and are title game contenders.

But this year might be a little different. Home teams have won at an extremely high rate (52-28, .650 winning %) in league play this year, meaning some very good teams have struggled to win on the road.

Just look at the gulf amongst the teams that are in the Top 6 in the standings:


2016-17

UNCW 7-2
Charleston 7-2

Towson 3-4 (2 road games left to play)
Elon 3-6
Northeastern 2-5 (2 road games left to play)
W&M 2-7


They're healthy now and ready to make a deep run.

Oh no we're not.

It looks like Jeremy Miller and Devon Begley may be out for the rest of the year.

So we're far from being good...

Going to be a quick stay in North Charleston.
02-23-2017 06:28 PM
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Seahawk Nation 08 Offline
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Post: #10
CAA Road Record and CAA Tournament success: Does it matter?
(02-23-2017 06:28 PM)geewizNU Wrote:  
(02-23-2017 10:24 AM)Seahawk Nation 08 Wrote:  Winning on the road is a necessity in the CAA. This has to be true, because the CAA Tournament never gets played at Trask Coliseum, Matthews Arena, Kaplan Arena, or any of the other CAA venues around the league.

True, when the tournament was hosted in Richmond, there was a case to be made they VCU held "home court advantage". The same may be true for Charleston this year.

But logically, it makes sense that road record should matter as a predictor for CAA Tournament success, right?

Below are the top road teams in CAA play over the last 3 seasons and how the CAA Tournament played out. I chose just the last 3 years for 2 reasons: 1) The CAA was very different prior to 2013, and 2) The tournament was held in a neutral location (Baltimore) all 3 years.


2013-14

Delaware 7-1
Towson 6-2
W&M 4-4

Championship game: Delaware over W&M


2014-15

JMU 6-3
Northeastern 5-4
W&M 5-4
UNCW 5-4

Championship game: Northeastern over W&M


2015-16

UNCW 7-2
Hofstra 7-2
JMU 6-3

Championship game: UNCW over Hofstra


So as you can see, in each of the last 3 years, the CAA championship game paired 2 teams that had top-3 road records in league play.

But that seems obvious, right? The teams at the top tend to have good road records because they're good teams, and are title game contenders.

But this year might be a little different. Home teams have won at an extremely high rate (52-28, .650 winning %) in league play this year, meaning some very good teams have struggled to win on the road.

Just look at the gulf amongst the teams that are in the Top 6 in the standings:


2016-17

UNCW 7-2
Charleston 7-2

Towson 3-4 (2 road games left to play)
Elon 3-6
Northeastern 2-5 (2 road games left to play)
W&M 2-7


They're healthy now and ready to make a deep run.

Oh no we're not.

It looks like Jeremy Miller and Devon Begley may be out for the rest of the year.

So we're far from being good...

Going to be a quick stay in North Charleston.

Ouch. Sorry to hear that.
02-23-2017 06:36 PM
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