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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #31
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-06-2017 04:48 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I'd guess Urias starts the season in extended Spring Training (he's not ready for 200 innings; only threw 120 last year, so a 6th starter is definitely needed, but I'd be ok with Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, McCarthy, Wood to begin the year. Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling both pitched in the majors last year and should be improved so are also in the mix. Not gonna count on Ryu but he is pitching without discomfort again. Has to get his velocity up to be considered viable; if he does the logjam is even worse. (Admittedly, it's a great problem to have.)

Talking to myself in the MLB thread. Again. Anywho... My prediction above looking more solid. Kazmir still recovering from hip injury, Ryu pitching comfortably but innings haven't ramped up enough yet, and same for Urias and Stripling. McCarthy's been getting shelled but (of course), team says it's not about results, he's comfortable, just working on stuff, blah, blah, blah. We're very near the point in Spring where this kind of thing becomes worrisome.
03-15-2017 10:35 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #32
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-15-2017 10:35 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-06-2017 04:48 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I'd guess Urias starts the season in extended Spring Training (he's not ready for 200 innings; only threw 120 last year, so a 6th starter is definitely needed, but I'd be ok with Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, McCarthy, Wood to begin the year. Brock Stewart and Ross Stripling both pitched in the majors last year and should be improved so are also in the mix. Not gonna count on Ryu but he is pitching without discomfort again. Has to get his velocity up to be considered viable; if he does the logjam is even worse. (Admittedly, it's a great problem to have.)

Talking to myself in the MLB thread. Again. Anywho... My prediction above looking more solid. Kazmir still recovering from hip injury, Ryu pitching comfortably but innings haven't ramped up enough yet, and same for Urias and Stripling. McCarthy's been getting shelled but (of course), team says it's not about results, he's comfortable, just working on stuff, blah, blah, blah. We're very near the point in Spring where this kind of thing becomes worrisome.

The good thing for the Dodgers is, their top guy is just so dominant to the point where his starts are nearly automatic wins. And when Hill is on he's pretty dominant.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2017 01:20 PM by flyingswoosh.)
03-16-2017 01:17 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #33
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Kazmir's fastball sat at 82 in a simulated game yesterday. I know we've been through this before and he's always ended up ok, but this has to be at least a minor concern, right? But as you said the other day, he was probably not going to open the season in the starting 5 anyway. Dodgers have done a good job building their SP depth, so they're uniquely positioned to weather something like this.

Meanwhile, the Nats waived Derek Norris. Stever, what does their bench look like now? Not being sardonic, actually asking.

Giants right now are healthy and I don't have many complaints. I don't have much faith in the lineup, but a healthy Nunez at 3rd, as well as a platoon of Williamson and Parker (over Pagan), should at least help a bit. Assuming they can sort out the 5th starter spot, I'd say they'll be in decent shape to compete for a playoff spot and maybe even the division. A full season of Moore, along with Melancon added to the pen should make the staff one of the best in the league. A pen of Melancon, Smith, Strickland, Law and Okert is much better than what we had for most of last season when the pen featured platoon guys like Romo, Lopez and even Casilla (at times).

One thing Bochy needs to commit to is keeping Pence healthy. He's a huge key to the lineup (despite his declining play in the OF) and Bochy needs to make sure he gets plenty of rest. With Williamson/Parker and Hernandez as the backup OF, I'm confident that Pence and Span can get a lot of rest without sacrificing a ton of WAR. I also like the idea of Aaron Hill as a utility IF. Overall I'd predict 87-90 wins, which probably means a wild card spot. I think that's a pretty reasonable projection.

If I had to rank the NL teams I'd probably go:
Cubs
Nats
Dodgers
Giants
Cardinals
Mets
Pirates
Rockies
Marlins

I would not be the least bit surprised if the Rockies jumped over the Mets and Pirates. I like their rotation and lineup, as well as their solid defense
03-17-2017 11:38 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #34
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-17-2017 11:38 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Kazmir's fastball sat at 82 in a simulated game yesterday. I know we've been through this before and he's always ended up ok, but this has to be at least a minor concern, right? But as you said the other day, he was probably not going to open the season in the starting 5 anyway. Dodgers have done a good job building their SP depth, so they're uniquely positioned to weather something like this.

I was serious earlier when I said Kazmir is not a concern for me. He was serviceable last year, but just barely - he had issues. And I had/have no faith that he'll be even that useful this year but I've been afraid Dodgers would send him out there just because his salary is big enough they wouldn't want to sit him. I think McCarthy will be no worse than Kazmir and it looks like Wood has had a nice spring. I think we've got at least 6 solid starters w/o Kazmir.

But to your point about Kershaw and Hill, I think you're right but with Kershaw's back and Hill's injury history it's easy to be nervous about durability this year. Having Kazmir ready to go helps that *maybe* but my feeling is that if we need somebody to fill in for Kershaw and/or Hill, the season may be shot anyway.

Quote:Giants right now are healthy and I don't have many complaints. I don't have much faith in the lineup, but a healthy Nunez at 3rd, as well as a platoon of Williamson and Parker (over Pagan), should at least help a bit. Assuming they can sort out the 5th starter spot, I'd say they'll be in decent shape to compete for a playoff spot and maybe even the division. A full season of Moore, along with Melancon added to the pen should make the staff one of the best in the league. A pen of Melancon, Smith, Strickland, Law and Okert is much better than what we had for most of last season when the pen featured platoon guys like Romo, Lopez and even Casilla (at times).

One thing Bochy needs to commit to is keeping Pence healthy. He's a huge key to the lineup (despite his declining play in the OF) and Bochy needs to make sure he gets plenty of rest. With Williamson/Parker and Hernandez as the backup OF, I'm confident that Pence and Span can get a lot of rest without sacrificing a ton of WAR. I also like the idea of Aaron Hill as a utility IF. Overall I'd predict 87-90 wins, which probably means a wild card spot. I think that's a pretty reasonable projection.

Deadspin said this about them, which made me snicker:
Lindsey Adler Wrote:Fangraphs projects the Giants to go 87-75 this year, which is the exact record they finished with last year. No matter, this season will end familiarly: with them half-dozen games behind the Dodgers, who still won’t win ****. I can sleep easy with that outcome.

And also this, which cracked me up:
Quote:Everyone is sick of the Giants, except Giants fans, who seem to still be wound up about every plate appearance, as if a single loss can undo the three recent championships and plunge the team back into the darkness of 1985.

Quote:If I had to rank the NL teams I'd probably go:
Cubs
Nats
Dodgers
Giants
Cardinals
Mets
Pirates
Rockies
Marlins

I know I'm biased but I'd switch Nats and Dodgers. The Dodgers offense is going to be significantly better than last year. They'll be healthy from the start (knock wood) and the replacement of Utley with Forsythe is significant. And Nats still don't have a real closer. I expect they'll do everything they can to rectify that mid-season but until they do I think lack of a shut down closer is a real handicap.

I don't think the Cards will be that good. You may be right about the Rockies but most "experts" I've read think the NL West is crap. Hard to argue - Padres alone make it pretty bad.
03-17-2017 01:37 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #35
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Nats have DREADFULLY underachieved IMO. Their 2 alleged superstars have what, 3 above seasons between them?
03-17-2017 03:46 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #36
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
I really don't understand why people are down on the Rockies. This is the best staff they've probably ever assembled, with a lineup that performs in or out of Coors. Needless to say, I'm bullish.

That line about Giants fans was spot on btw
03-18-2017 11:23 PM
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Post: #37
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Interested in how the AL East shakes up. Honestly have no idea what to expect from my Jays, especially with no Edwin. I'm just hoping for Wild Card contention.
03-19-2017 09:34 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #38
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-18-2017 11:23 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  I really don't understand why people are down on the Rockies. This is the best staff they've probably ever assembled, with a lineup that performs in or out of Coors. Needless to say, I'm bullish.

PECOTA projections don't think much of them. When you consider player value projections and likely playing time the numbers don't look that great. But I think key guys have a ton of potential for over-achieving compared to their historical performances which is why I think your bullish-ness is warranted. Full season of Trevor Story? Ought to help. On the other hand, Desmond, which was kind of a weird signing considering they want him at 1B, is now out for a while with a broken hand. Best laid plans get hammered in Spring Training - what a surprise.
03-19-2017 10:24 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #39
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
(03-19-2017 10:24 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(03-18-2017 11:23 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  I really don't understand why people are down on the Rockies. This is the best staff they've probably ever assembled, with a lineup that performs in or out of Coors. Needless to say, I'm bullish.

PECOTA projections don't think much of them. When you consider player value projections and likely playing time the numbers don't look that great. But I think key guys have a ton of potential for over-achieving compared to their historical performances which is why I think your bullish-ness is warranted. Full season of Trevor Story? Ought to help. On the other hand, Desmond, which was kind of a weird signing considering they want him at 1B, is now out for a while with a broken hand. Best laid plans get hammered in Spring Training - what a surprise.

Yeah the Desmond injury doesn't help. But aside from a sunk cost for one season, i don't think it's a huge back breaker. The one thing that will hurt is Chad Bettis's cancer returning. He's going to be out for a long time, which won't help considering his solid 102 ERA+ last season.
03-20-2017 10:39 AM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #40
RE: 2017 MLB Season Thread
Adrian Gonzalez lookin like Wally Pipp? A-Gone with more elbow soreness, getting shut down again. Getting closer and closer to seeing Cody Bellinger as a semi-regular starter at 1B this year. Andre Ethier also doing his best to thin the outfield logjam with his back injury.

...aaand Puig with calf tightness!
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2017 10:01 PM by Brookes Owl.)
03-20-2017 05:00 PM
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