Arizona winning big today again 5-1- looks like 2/3 for the series for the D'Backs.

For Colorado- Sezatela lit up again- 5 er in 3 innings so far. After 1st 7 starts with a 2.86 ERA, last 7 starts before today 5.49 ERA with 24 er in 39.1 IP. Add today and it's now 29 er in 42.1 ip- or a 6.17 ERA. And even worse now in last 4 plus today- a whopping 21 er in 24.1 ip- or a 7.77 ERA.

I'm not sad.

(06-22-2017 03:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Arizona winning big today again 5-1- looks like 2/3 for the series for the D'Backs.

For Colorado- Sezatela lit up again- 5 er in 3 innings so far. After 1st 7 starts with a 2.86 ERA, last 7 starts before today 5.49 ERA with 24 er in 39.1 IP. Add today and it's now 29 er in 42.1 ip- or a 6.17 ERA. And even worse now in last 4 plus today- a whopping 21 er in 24.1 ip- or a 7.77 ERA.

this division has become insane, and pollack is still hurt

An update to HR watch 2017: Dodgers hit 15 HRs in their series with the Mets - franchise record for 4 game series. Launch angles and juiced balls notwithstanding, you've got to give credit where credit is due: Mets pitchers. Dreadful. Dodgers sent a relief pitcher to bat in in the 7th with bases loaded and 2 outs. He walked. On 4 pitches.

HR watch 2017-
so far 2781 homers hit. Currently on pace for 6211. The record set in 2000 was "only" 5693. Already this year is 45th in MLB history in most homers hit for the entire year.

Home runs are very spread out amongst hitters, though.

Judge is the only player on pace to hit 50 HRs for the season; he has 25 and is on pace to hit 57. Bellinger has 22 and is on pace to hit 48, and everyone else is behind that pace.

well Joe Ross pitched today and the Nats have 13 runs. He's now in 10 starts gotten a whopping 104 runs scored for him. 10.4 runs per game.

I wonder what the record is for best run support for a pitcher in a season.

Rockies not had a good week at all this week. Gone 1-4 after losing to the Dodgers again yesterday. The Rockies problem is that while they've struggled, as opposed to when they were winning and not gaining any ground, they've actually lost ground this week. They are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers now and 1 game back of Arizona. 6-7 in last 13 games- a span where they've lost a whopping 6 games to the Dodgers(12-1) and 4 games to Arizona(9-2). Pitching starting to crumble some- in these 2 weeks, only teams to give up more per game- Cincy and San Francisco. And Cincy wasn't like that before yesterday. Team ERA for these 2 weeks 6.51 and FIP is 5.82. Starters 6.25 ERA with only 67 innings in 13 games- so only 5.21 innings per game. Bullpen a whopping 6.90 ERA in 40 innings. Reds and Giants only 2 worse bullpens at 7.08(Reds) and 8.21(Giants).

Oh and you can see why Arizona is doing so well in these last 2 weeks...
Starters 2.79 ERA #1. 67.2 innings in 11 games so 6.15 per game
bullpen 1.44 ERA #1- by .71 over the Padres. One of only 4 teams with a sub 3 ERA in the last 2 weeks out of the pen. Of course it helps when you are throwing the fewest innings of anyone in that period I guess.

think it's interesting what the Diamondbacks did this weekend. They were playing Philly. Gave a guy a spot start and pushed back Greinke a day. The impact of that will be that now Greinke won't start vs the Dodgers next week. Also now have all 3 top guys set for the Rockies this weekend.

Arizona now 15-3 last 18 games. Helps when you have Philly 7 games in there but they also went 4-2 vs Milwaukee and Colorado combined. Huge 9 games now with St Louis, Colorado, and Los Angeles followed by 3 with Cincy. If they can just go like 7-5 they'd be happy I think in these 12 games. That would put them 56-33. Going 37-36 rest of the way from there would put them at 93 wins and that is a lock for making the playoffs.

(06-27-2017 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  think it's interesting what the Diamondbacks did this weekend. They were playing Philly. Gave a guy a spot start and pushed back Greinke a day. The impact of that will be that now Greinke won't start vs the Dodgers next week. Also now have all 3 top guys set for the Rockies this weekend.

Arizona now 15-3 last 18 games. Helps when you have Philly 7 games in there but they also went 4-2 vs Milwaukee and Colorado combined. Huge 9 games now with St Louis, Colorado, and Los Angeles followed by 3 with Cincy. If they can just go like 7-5 they'd be happy I think in these 12 games. That would put them 56-33. Going 37-36 rest of the way from there would put them at 93 wins and that is a lock for making the playoffs.

I think you're right about being happy with a winning record for that stretch -
it'll be hard to do. I know the Dodgers will feel like they HAVE to win that series, being at home. The NL West is crazy. 3 of the 4 best records in the NL. I don't know which team to worry about more. I thought it was the Rockies but now I'm not so sure. Most of AZ's numbers look better. I'm not sure they're sustainable but the sample size is getting pretty big at this point.

And injury stuff starting to get a little concerning in LA. Seager *should* be back soon, but it's a hamstring. McCarthy's yips returning + knee is worrying. No idea when Gonzalez will be back but it's probably at least a month. And Urias is now out until next summer.

Colorado's pitching concerns me between the 2. The fact that early in the season their 2 best pitchers were rookies- eventually most all of those run up against a wall. Seen it already with Senzatela who has been demoted to the pen. Freeland has given up 3 or more earned runs in 6 of the last 9 starts. 3rd rookie Marquez has a 5.48 ERA in 5 starts in June and isn't even averaging 5 innings per start. Gray comes back this weekend- but lets remember he had a 4.61 ERA last year and so he's no difference maker.

You're right. Freeland blew through the Dodgers the first two times he saw them, but got hit pretty hard in the last series. I was never convinced by the Senzatela hype because his peripherals were not great. Rockies' bullpen was/is the real asset but look at the freaking Diamondbacks - right there with them. In fact, Rockies bullpen ERA is significantly higher: 4.50 vs 3.23 (admittedly, FIP is closer at 3.95 vs 3.58). Of course, bullpen quality is a lot less useful if the starters are allowing a ton of runs.

looking at the 2- for the season-
Arizona starters have gone 457 innings in 77 starts. 5.94 per start. 3.45 ERA 3.67 FIP
Colorado starters have gone 442 innings in 79 starts. 5.59 per start. 4.56 ERA 4.67 FIP

but look at June....
Arizona- 129 innings in 22 starts. 5.86 per start. 3.21 ERA 3.67 FIP
Colorado- 128 innings in 24 starts. 5.33 per start. 5.13 ERA 5.14 FIP

and look at the impact on the bullpens...
Arizona in June- 1.99 ERA 2.84 FIP
Colorado in June- 5.51 ERA 4.87 FIP

to show you how bad the bullpen has been for Colorado- in June it's been worse than the Nats.

(06-27-2017 02:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  to show you how bad the bullpen has been for Colorado- in June it's been worse than the Nats.

so last night just a crazy swing for the Rockies/D'backs. Rockies were up early vs Giants while D'backs losing 5-2 to the Cards. But what winds up happening? D'Backs come back and Rockies lose. Rockies now lost 7 in a row. Now 5.5 behind the Dodgers and 4 on the D'Backs. 4 games doesn't sound like much now, but even there, using my .500 thing- D'backs play .500 ball rest of the way, they finish at 92-70. Rockies would need to go 46-36 to beat them. That's a 91 win pace. That's a pretty high standard for the Rockies.

Definitely a very necessary day off after todays game for the Rockies.

ASTROS!!!!!

so looking at the first half stats with only what 10 days to go now before the break.....
starters-
2017- 4.49 ERA 5.57 ip per start .255/.324/.425 .750 OPS(worst 1st half ERA since 2007 when the starters had a 4.50 ERA). 72.3% LOB
2016- 4.36 ERA 5.73 ip per start .261/.324/.429 .752 OPS 71.9% LOB
2015- 3.97 ERA 5.90 ip per start .258/.315/.407 .722 OPS 72.5% LOB
relievers-
2017- 4.12 ERA .244/.320/.400 .719 OPS
2016- 3.99 ERA .248/.321/.403 .724 OPS
2015- 3.52 ERA .242/.312/.375 .687 OPS

so in 2 years, seen starters ERA's go up by half a run while going 1/3 inning per start less. And just getting to the hotter point of the summer where balls start to really fly out now...

Tonight with 9 homers we move to 3000 homers for the season. On pace for 6139(record is 5693).

oh, remember how close we came last month to set the most hr in a month record. I think it's safe to say that will get broken actually tonight. Right now had 1068 this month. The record? 1069.

When you get swept by the Giants you should just pack it in and go home.

Stever, what do you think the Nats need to do, if anything at all? The pen absolutely cannot be trusted in the playoffs and now Turner is out for an unknown amount of time. Also, Zimmerman has totally died. SO much for all the talk about him finally getting a healthy offseason. His wRC+ has declined a lot each month, with an equal drop in BABIP and ISO. A huge factor for the Nats has been Taylor. He has the exact same BB/K rates, but with a huge increase in ISO and BABIP. Naturally I'm skeptical, but sustained power with a drop in BABIP would still leave him as a very useful player.

Just noticed Wieters died and now has a wRC+ well below what he did last year. Not entirely surprising, but doesn't seem like the Nats need him

I wouldn't say that Zimmerman has totally died. I mean, even in June he's had 4 homers and 18 RBI in 22 games. even his wRC+ is over 100 still. Is he white hot like he started? No, but as long as he can do what he's done even in June, the Nats will be fine. Definitely no black hole.

Taylor has been huge. Both May and June he's been over .280 avg. 7 homers this month. If he can continue close to how he's done, the Nats are in excellent shape.

The pen is the absolute key right now. Nats have 6 losses after leading after 8th innings. To put this number in context, the Giants last year lost 9 games after leading after 8 innings.