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Predict the next conference reallignment...
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Post: #21
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
Next realignment will be a re-shuffling of the G5. Probably involves the AAC and then the MWC going to 14, followed by the MAC.
02-12-2017 08:14 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
(02-12-2017 01:11 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I believe the CFP expands to 8 and there will be no major changes in the current conference memberships.

If the CFP expands to 8 teams with P5 autobids, then yes.

But an 8-team playoff is not so certain that I could say I believe it will happen right after the end of the current 12-year deal.
02-12-2017 08:57 PM
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p23570 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
The current setup is certainly not the final shuffling. Really there isn't a single p-5 conference who has the number of members they actually want. 14 was never the end goal for the B1G or the SEC. 14.625 in the ACC is also not a logical end point. Big 12 is not happy at 10. And we know the PAC has looked at expanding in the past and is now the proud owner of a underperforming network that had failed to meet even lower financial expectations with no reason to think it will improve with the current membership.


So from the conferences perspective it's obvious that there will be more.
02-12-2017 09:18 PM
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va-eagle Offline
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RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
(02-12-2017 11:17 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Big 12 expands when it gets a network no one thought it would get (similar to the ACC) and grabs Cincy, BYU, UConn, and Houston to go to 14.
Pac-12 sits as it doesn't want to do anything stupid. MW invites SMU and Tulsa and they accept when they look at the weakened AAC. Navy then goes back to being an independent. The AAC is left with 6 teams. Army won't come, but the conference has options so they grab UMass, Southern Miss, Old Dominion, and App St. That leaves the AAC with 10, C-USA with 12, and the Sun Belt brings back NMSU as a full member to go to 10.

Southern Miss would likely want to stay in CUSA.
02-12-2017 09:51 PM
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Post: #25
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
Houston and Cincy got shafted. I don't see the Big12 doing anything until those GOR run out. Then I see the Big12 turning into a P5 version of C-USA.

Oklahoma leaves first, for the SEC. Texas then announces it's getting the same Notre Dame deal from the ACC. They're set to leave the same year.

BYU and Houston are chosen as immediate replacements.

Kansas gets a call from the B1G and is set to leave the following year.

That's when it gets tricky. Does the B1G want Mizzou? WVU would fit in the SEC..

Does the Big 12(8) then further expand toward WVU or BYU? These dominos would fall for several years before anything stabilized.
02-12-2017 09:52 PM
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Bill Marsh Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
(02-12-2017 09:18 PM)p23570 Wrote:  The current setup is certainly not the final shuffling. Really there isn't a single p-5 conference who has the number of members they actually want. 14 was never the end goal for the B1G or the SEC. 14.625 in the ACC is also not a logical end point. Big 12 is not happy at 10. And we know the PAC has looked at expanding in the past and is now the proud owner of a underperforming network that had failed to meet even lower financial expectations with no reason to think it will improve with the current membership.


So from the conferences perspective it's obvious that there will be more.

Actually 14 is a very good number of football teams for a conference, which is where 3 of the P5 are. The Big Ten has been studying the possibility of a 10 game schedule, which is ideal for a 14 team conference - 6 games within a division + 1 permanent rival from the other division + 3 teams from the 6 remaining from the other division, alternating inter division opponents each year. In basketball, 2 games against each division opponent annually + 7 games by playing each team from the other division once annually = 19 games. It's when a league gets bigger than 14 that it becomes impossible to function as a true conference.

As for the ACC being at 14.625, that's obviously not the case. It's 14 for football and 15 for everything else. That's not ideal, but clearly the ACC felt the the Irish were worth making an exception for. As a result they're talking about a 20 game conference basketball schedule.
02-12-2017 09:57 PM
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jrj84105 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
(02-12-2017 04:57 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Jrj: you lost me after your 5th point. Those 1st 5 sound pretty reasonable.

Yeah, it goes off the rails at that point, but I do think that Mizzou is the one school whose movement is plausible and would create the conditions needed to split KU and OU from KSU/ISU (those conditions being a single opening in a P4/P5 conference with the threat of UT leaving the BigXII).
02-12-2017 10:43 PM
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p23570 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
(02-12-2017 09:57 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  
(02-12-2017 09:18 PM)p23570 Wrote:  The current setup is certainly not the final shuffling. Really there isn't a single p-5 conference who has the number of members they actually want. 14 was never the end goal for the B1G or the SEC. 14.625 in the ACC is also not a logical end point. Big 12 is not happy at 10. And we know the PAC has looked at expanding in the past and is now the proud owner of a underperforming network that had failed to meet even lower financial expectations with no reason to think it will improve with the current membership.


So from the conferences perspective it's obvious that there will be more.

Actually 14 is a very good number of football teams for a conference, which is where 3 of the P5 are. The Big Ten has been studying the possibility of a 10 game schedule, which is ideal for a 14 team conference - 6 games within a division + 1 permanent rival from the other division + 3 teams from the 6 remaining from the other division, alternating inter division opponents each year. In basketball, 2 games against each division opponent annually + 7 games by playing each team from the other division once annually = 19 games. It's when a league gets bigger than 14 that it becomes impossible to function as a true conference.

As for the ACC being at 14.625, that's obviously not the case. It's 14 for football and 15 for everything else. That's not ideal, but clearly the ACC felt the the Irish were worth making an exception for. As a result they're talking about a 20 game conference basketball schedule.

Why do some of you pretend that Notre Dame doesn't play ACC football games? I never have understood it but Notre Dame certainly plays ACC football games, just not a full slate. 14.625 is the # of FB members in the ACC, 15 in everything else. The only way 15 makes sense is with 3 divisions of 5. No way this was the plan.

As far as 14 you can believe that 14 was the goal if you want even though it's clearly not. No way the SEC planned to have Missouri in an Eastern Division. No way the B1G wanted all the strength of the conference in one division either.

There is a reason the B1G and ACC have tried alternate divisions after the original divisions were scrapped. Remember Leaders and Legends? Realize Miami and FSU aren't in the same division now?

The 14 team leagues are trying to make divisions work but to anyone looking at the setups it's clear this was never the goal, but more of a compromise. Compromise a 9 game unbalanced schedule or a 8 game schedule where you play opposing division teams only once every 4 years (6/2). 10 is stupid, just more guaranteed losses and hurt SOS.

I really don't think there is one conference who is completely happy with it's setup right now.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2017 11:09 PM by p23570.)
02-12-2017 11:06 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
More D2 call ups when some schools either merge or shut down.
02-12-2017 11:51 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Predict the next conference reallignment...
I think the lines are getting too fuzzy with bowl eligibility and how FCS programs and Hawaii factor into them. Maybe thirteen games become the norm.

Would that be enough to get some expansion going by itself?

I mention it because I'm pretty sure the Big Ten models for sixteen or more members assume ten conference games -and- thirteen regular season games. This was said to be the only way everyone got their seven home games cleanly, if not giving some the luck of getting eight or more.

Or is it that expansion will necessitate that move to thirteen and not the other way around?
02-12-2017 11:59 PM
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