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NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #1
NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
Nothing surprising to anyone who has looked at what media "bracketologists" have been predicting.

They presented the teams seeded 1-16 as of today (in parenthesis below) and a projection of where they would go in the bracket if it were issued this morning.

EAST REGION

1. Villanova (1)
2. Louisville (7)
3. Kentucky (12)
4. UCLA (15)

MIDWEST REGION

1. Kansas (2)
2. Florida State (6)
3. Arizona (9)
4. Duke (16)

SOUTH REGION

1. Baylor (3)
2. North Carolina (5)
3. Florida (11)
4. Butler (13)

WEST REGION

1. Gonzaga (4)
2. Oregon (8)
3. Virginia (10)
4. West Virginia (14)

https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/...1991992323
02-11-2017 01:40 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #2
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-11-2017 01:40 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Nothing surprising to anyone who has looked at what media "bracketologists" have been predicting.

They presented the teams seeded 1-16 as of today (in parenthesis below) and a projection of where they would go in the bracket if it were issued this morning.

EAST REGION

1. Villanova (1)
2. Louisville (7)
3. Kentucky (12)
4. UCLA (15)

MIDWEST REGION

1. Kansas (2)
2. Florida State (6)
3. Arizona (9)
4. Duke (16)

SOUTH REGION

1. Baylor (3)
2. North Carolina (5)
3. Florida (11)
4. Butler (13)

WEST REGION

1. Gonzaga (4)
2. Oregon (8)
3. Virginia (10)
4. West Virginia (14)

https://twitter.com/marchmadness/status/...1991992323

As usual they are setting up those first round Sweet 16 games (UK / UL) (UNC / UF) a big game for Oregon, (KU / Duke). Now I ask you, does this sound like a committee seeding, or a network preference listing?
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2017 01:54 PM by JRsec.)
02-11-2017 01:52 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
The key point here is that Gonzaga is barely a 1 seed. They have to win out and hope the other three all stumble (Villanova maybe more than once) to get the overall number 1 seed.
02-11-2017 02:02 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-11-2017 02:02 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The key point here is that Gonzaga is barely a 1 seed. They have to win out and hope the other three all stumble (Villanova maybe more than once) to get the overall number 1 seed.

True, which is another "network" type decision. They need another West coast brand to anchor attendance in that bracket. Since Oregon isn't playing Gonzaga (potentially) in that first round game in the West Sweet Sixteen bracket it increases the odds that one of them will be in the finals.
02-11-2017 02:06 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #5
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-11-2017 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  As usual they are setting up those first round Sweet 16 games (UK / UL) (UNC / UF) a big game for Oregon, (KU / Duke). Now I ask you, does this sound like a committee seeding, or a network preference listing?

CBS and Turner are paying a billion dollars each year (eventually more, as the contract escalates) for this tournament, all the way through 2032. If your company had a business partner that paid you a billion dollars each year, you'd do your best to keep them happy, right?
02-11-2017 02:11 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #6
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-11-2017 02:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-11-2017 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  As usual they are setting up those first round Sweet 16 games (UK / UL) (UNC / UF) a big game for Oregon, (KU / Duke). Now I ask you, does this sound like a committee seeding, or a network preference listing?

CBS and Turner are paying a billion dollars each year (eventually more, as the contract escalates) for this tournament, all the way through 2032. If your company had a business partner that paid you a billion dollars each year, you'd do your best to keep them happy, right?

Absolutely, I just wanted folks to get it straight right from the get go this year that the NCAA may make the announcements, but seeding is not about relative strength, but rather positioning for ratings.
02-11-2017 02:24 PM
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
I actually do disagree about seeding being for rating. While the networks have preferences, the most important thing for the value of the tournament and other sports properties is to maintain an image of fair competition (or at least relatively close to that). If any committee members came out in public and said they were encouraged (directly or indirectly) to help set-up certain match-ups, the tournament would risk loosing a bit of legitimacy and that worry is far, far worse than not having a specific match-up a network wants in a particular year.

I think the committees value things differently than the polls and randomness dictates we are going to get some good match-ups. I am not saying the members completely lose sight of the idea there might be a good match-up sometimes or that they don't come with their own biases, but I would be stunned if they ever made a decision because they thought it would make CBS/ESPN/etc happy.
02-11-2017 05:13 PM
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Carolina_Low_Country Offline
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Post: #8
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
How does Cincinnati get left out?
02-11-2017 05:39 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #9
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
I thought it was supposed to be a. "snake" (The weakest 4-seed in with the strongest 2-seed, etc.)
02-11-2017 06:05 PM
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #10
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-11-2017 06:05 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  I thought it was supposed to be a. "snake" (The weakest 4-seed in with the strongest 2-seed, etc.)

Higher seeds get geographic advantage. Oregon was the 8th ranked team but they will get placed in the west. Same with UNC in the south over FSU and Louisville. Those other two schools would rather play in the mid-west or east than the west where oregon went.
02-11-2017 06:18 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #11
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
I forgot that aspect guy. But: all else being equal, it's USUALLY a "snake", correct?
02-11-2017 06:31 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #12
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
Duke a 4 seed over Cincy? SCDY.
02-11-2017 07:19 PM
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #13
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-11-2017 06:31 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  I forgot that aspect guy. But: all else being equal, it's USUALLY a "snake", correct?

It's all about geography for the top 4 seeds.
02-11-2017 08:37 PM
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ChrisLords Offline
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Post: #14
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
No Big Ten teams in the top 16. I hadn't been paying attention. Is the Big Ten having a bad year?
02-11-2017 09:33 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-11-2017 02:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-11-2017 02:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-11-2017 01:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  As usual they are setting up those first round Sweet 16 games (UK / UL) (UNC / UF) a big game for Oregon, (KU / Duke). Now I ask you, does this sound like a committee seeding, or a network preference listing?

CBS and Turner are paying a billion dollars each year (eventually more, as the contract escalates) for this tournament, all the way through 2032. If your company had a business partner that paid you a billion dollars each year, you'd do your best to keep them happy, right?

Absolutely, I just wanted folks to get it straight right from the get go this year that the NCAA may make the announcements, but seeding is not about relative strength, but rather positioning for ratings.

Correct. The networks are consulted during the process. It's debatable how involved they are, because the process is supposed to consist of two parts: selecting the teams, then seeding.

The integrity of that process is very suspect, though. The seeding, especially, has been pretty questionable over the years. What it's supposed to do (protect the higher seeds at all costs) and what it winds up doing (like UNC and Duke getting games in Greensboro like every year regardless of seed)...who can really tell? It's not like the committee ever produces its work on why and how it makes its decisions.

Who gets in doesn't bother me so much anymore. The seeding thing, though...the end product looks like it was put together in a production truck rather than at a hotel conference room. When you see UK/UL lining up for MSG, you know CBS and NYC want that game more than anything. Does a PAC team, notably its best one, HAVE to be in the west, too, when there's already a top western team out there...on the one-line?

Quote: Is the Big Ten having a bad year?

Other than Wisconsin and Purdue, yeah. Or, perhaps more specific: Michigan State and Indiana aren't having great years, and that's usually the tent-poles for your conference and its metric dominance. Michigan and Illinois are meh. Maryland...nothing to write home about. But, the field is weird enough that they would probably still send six or seven, even if 2-3 of those don't line up metrically.
02-11-2017 11:24 PM
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Lenvillecards Offline
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Post: #16
NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
Why is WV in the west & UCLA in the east? UCLA couldn't play Oregon until the Elite, if then.
02-12-2017 12:21 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-12-2017 12:21 PM)Lenvillecards Wrote:  Why is WV in the west & UCLA in the east? UCLA couldn't play Oregon until the Elite, if then.

The committee wants to avoid putting two top-4 seeds from the same conference in the same region. The ACC had five top-4 seeds in this "bracket preview", so two of them had to be placed in the same region.
02-13-2017 01:47 PM
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Post: #18
RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
(02-11-2017 05:13 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  I actually do disagree about seeding being for rating. While the networks have preferences, the most important thing for the value of the tournament and other sports properties is to maintain an image of fair competition (or at least relatively close to that). If any committee members came out in public and said they were encouraged (directly or indirectly) to help set-up certain match-ups, the tournament would risk loosing a bit of legitimacy and that worry is far, far worse than not having a specific match-up a network wants in a particular year.

I think the committees value things differently than the polls and randomness dictates we are going to get some good match-ups. I am not saying the members completely lose sight of the idea there might be a good match-up sometimes or that they don't come with their own biases, but I would be stunned if they ever made a decision because they thought it would make CBS/ESPN/etc happy.

Tightening it up will take care of it, IMO.
02-13-2017 04:21 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
1. Villanova (1)
2. Louisville (7)
3. Kentucky (12)
4. UCLA (15)


UCLA 97 @ UK 92
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2017 04:35 PM by dbackjon.)
02-13-2017 04:25 PM
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RE: NCAA bracket preview - committee's projected top 16 "revealed"
1 thing pretty big with the reveal is how much this committee seems to view RPI. 11 of the 16 teams revealed were within 3 spots of their actual RPI. Could be bad news for a team like a Syracuse who sits right now at #76 in RPI. Sunday @ Georgia Tech may be close to a must win for them, especially given their poor record away from home(only 2-8).
02-14-2017 03:08 PM
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