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What will be the next conference to die?
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shizzle787 Offline
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What will be the next conference to die?
I mean completely die. Not the WAC (well, it could be them) but a conference that lost not just football (if it had it) but all of its members.
02-10-2017 10:24 PM
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TexanMark Offline
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RE: What will be the next conference to die?
Dying isn't the right word...more like taken over or merged.

I see a fallout within 10 years (TV Money is driving this)...The P5 could turn into the P4 but more likely I see about 80 schools competing in the largest FB classification (4-6 leagues) and another 70-120 schools hanging in there in a lower FB (or no FB in the Big East's case) division but will compete for Division 1 titles in all other sports (besides FB) to include basketball. I could see the CAA/MVC, etc...raise their profile in FB to compete with the MAC/SunBelt/CUSA type programs in that subdivision. March Madness is a cash cow and will continued to get milked. The smart folks deciding things realize they can maintain the underdog matchups to keep up to 200 schools eligible. The leftovers downgrade with a twist talked above below.

This won't be the final shift...it never is...a few schools will continue to upgrade/downgrade...however the money required to enter or stay at the highest level will be enormous. Eventually this will cause 3 options: The largest 20-40 schools just form a mega league and declare independence, the top 80 schools put in rules to control wasteful spending and create more parity, or finally the country becomes appalled at the continued large amount of injuries and demands a radical shift in rules to make the game safer for all. The second and third options actually could create opportunity for those previously left out.

The wild card is the right for players at private schools to have protections as employees. It is unclear how this will proceed. The largest/richest private schools should be okay...but I wonder about the smaller ones.

My own feeling are I like diversity of sports teams and would stop watching college football if it became a mini NFL with only 20-40 schools. On the basketball side...I think cutting D-1 from 350 or so schools to around 150-200 would be okay. However, I like the idea of the option of 4 lower out of division wild cards the opportunity to get an invitation into the first weekend to play a 10-12 seed. That would still introduce us to teams like SF Austin, FGCU, etc...that are doing something special at a sub-division.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2017 08:21 AM by TexanMark.)
02-11-2017 08:18 AM
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chargeradio Offline
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Post: #3
What will be the next conference to die?
I actually don't think you'll see a Division I Conference die in the next 20-25 years unless if everyone (and I do mean everyone) in the Big 12 is given a soft landing somewhere else in a P4 conference. I doubt TV networks will be able to give everyone a sufficient raise so we will probably continue with the present lineup for a while. The only exceptions are the SWAC and MEAC, but politics will keep the schools alive, and both conferences can take some losses before automatic bids get jeopardized. Most likely we end up with one conference of HBCU schools, and the other gets repurposed as a move-up for schools from the Peach Belt/Gulf South, as there are plenty of Division II schools who will gladly sign up for Division I basketball tournament credits.

Any P4/P5 driven separation will ultimately prove futile. The teams going 6-6 or 7-5 are not going to take to well to going 3-9 or 4-8 when they replace South Alabama, Western Carolina, and Bowling Green with Alabama, North Carolina, and Ohio State.

The real chance to slow the growth of Division I is to make most of the NCAA Tournament distributions performance related. All 32 conferences could sign on to a "College Basketball Playoff" and leave Divisions II and III on their own to fund their operations. Those that make it to Division I would have an easier time once they're there, but it would make it harder for Division II schools to raise the funds to change divisions.
02-11-2017 10:52 AM
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hawghiggs Online
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RE: What will be the next conference to die?
I could see a new P5 conferences emerging in the near future. With the Big 12 and PAC 12 lagging behind in revenue, Baylor's on going issues and California's gender equality laws. The rise of the Southwest conference could very well be at hand.


( The New SWC )

1, Arizona
2, Arizona state
3, Colorado
4, Kansas
5, Kansas state
6, New Mexico
7, Oklahoma
8, Oklahoma state
9, TCU
10,Texas
11,Texas Tech
12,Utah
02-11-2017 11:22 AM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: What will be the next conference to die?
(02-11-2017 11:22 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  I could see a new P5 conferences emerging in the near future. With the Big 12 and PAC 12 lagging behind in revenue, Baylor's on going issues and California's gender equality laws. The rise of the Southwest conference could very well be at hand.


( The New SWC )

1, Arizona
2, Arizona state
3, Colorado
4, Kansas
5, Kansas state
6, New Mexico
7, Oklahoma
8, Oklahoma state
9, TCU
10,Texas
11,Texas Tech
12,Utah

I love it! Throw in Boise St and BYU for 14 :)
02-11-2017 11:42 AM
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DoubleRSU Offline
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RE: What will be the next conference to die?
Yeah those 11 other teams are dying to be in a league with New Mexico. Get access to that green chile!
02-11-2017 11:44 AM
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hawghiggs Online
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RE: What will be the next conference to die?
(02-11-2017 11:42 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(02-11-2017 11:22 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  I could see a new P5 conferences emerging in the near future. With the Big 12 and PAC 12 lagging behind in revenue, Baylor's on going issues and California's gender equality laws. The rise of the Southwest conference could very well be at hand.


( The New SWC )

1, Arizona
2, Arizona state
3, Colorado
4, Kansas
5, Kansas state
6, New Mexico
7, Oklahoma
8, Oklahoma state
9, TCU
10,Texas
11,Texas Tech
12,Utah

I love it! Throw in Boise St and BYU for 14 :)

Can't add Boise state. Someone has to back fill the PAC.
02-11-2017 11:59 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: What will be the next conference to die?
PAC 12

California
USC
UCLA
Stanford
San Diego State
Fresno State
San Jose State
Cal.-Davis
Cal. Poly
Sacramento State
Hawaii
UNR
UNLV
Oregon
Oregon State
Portland State
Washington
Washington State
Eastern Washington
Colorado
Colorado State
Northern Colorado

All Blue states.
02-11-2017 12:05 PM
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hawghiggs Online
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RE: What will be the next conference to die?
(02-11-2017 11:44 AM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Yeah those 11 other teams are dying to be in a league with New Mexico. Get access to that green chile!

New Mexico would be a doormat for sure. But they benefit from being smack dab in the western have of that conference.
02-11-2017 12:05 PM
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nzmorange Offline
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RE: What will be the next conference to die?
All conference's eventually die, but not all conference's truly live.
02-11-2017 12:31 PM
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