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What will be the next conference to die?
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33laszlo99 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: What will be the next conference to die?
(02-11-2017 01:20 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(02-11-2017 08:18 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  Dying isn't the right word...more like taken over or merged.

I see a fallout within 10 years (TV Money is driving this)...The P5 could turn into the P4 but more likely I see about 80 schools competing in the largest FB classification (4-6 leagues) and another 70-120 schools hanging in there in a lower FB (or no FB in the Big East's case) division but will compete for Division 1 titles in all other sports (besides FB) to include basketball. I could see the CAA/MVC, etc...raise their profile in FB to compete with the MAC/SunBelt/CUSA type programs in that subdivision. March Madness is a cash cow and will continued to get milked. The smart folks deciding things realize they can maintain the underdog matchups to keep up to 200 schools eligible. The leftovers downgrade with a twist talked above below.

This won't be the final shift...it never is...a few schools will continue to upgrade/downgrade...however the money required to enter or stay at the highest level will be enormous. Eventually this will cause 3 options: The largest 20-40 schools just form a mega league and declare independence, the top 80 schools put in rules to control wasteful spending and create more parity, or finally the country becomes appalled at the continued large amount of injuries and demands a radical shift in rules to make the game safer for all. The second and third options actually could create opportunity for those previously left out.

The wild card is the right for players at private schools to have protections as employees. It is unclear how this will proceed. The largest/richest private schools should be okay...but I wonder about the smaller ones.

My own feeling are I like diversity of sports teams and would stop watching college football if it became a mini NFL with only 20-40 schools. On the basketball side...I think cutting D-1 from 350 or so schools to around 150-200 would be okay. However, I like the idea of the option of 4 lower out of division wild cards the opportunity to get an invitation into the first weekend to play a 10-12 seed. That would still introduce us to teams like SF Austin, FGCU, etc...that are doing something special at a sub-division.

Pretty much what I think, too. Agree with all of it, especially the part in bold.

For the P5/4 conferences to have 80 members, means that 15 programs will have been promoted from G5 to P5/4. ESPN/Fox stared-down The Big 12 for making plans to promote only two schools to P status. They will never allow 15. They simply won't pay P-class money for media rights they are currently getting for peanuts.
02-12-2017 10:52 AM
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ESE84 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: What will be the next conference to die?
(02-12-2017 10:06 AM)AppManDG Wrote:  Not predicting it will die, but CUSA is in turmoil. Nobody likes the alignment of schools. Everyone is reeling from the financial hit from the new TV contract thanks in part to Britton Banowsky's strategy of taking schools based on market size rather than quality of program. Everybody is looking for a way out.

If the new football coaching hires at FIU and FAU are quickly successful, I think much of that eastern dissent will subside. Western programs are generally ok, recognizing neither the MWC or AAC have vacancies. Many are willing to let Old Dominion, UT San Antonio, and Charlotte develop. ODU and UTSA still look like rock star additions.
02-12-2017 10:54 AM
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Lenvillecards Online
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Post: #33
What will be the next conference to die?
(02-11-2017 08:02 PM)p23570 Wrote:  Any conference on the brink just needs to add Trump U to the lineup.

That's the best point in this entire thread. Lol
02-12-2017 12:04 PM
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