Joined: Mar 2012
I Root For: SEC
RE: What will be the next conference to die?
(02-11-2017 02:36 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:
(02-11-2017 02:29 PM)JRsec Wrote:
(02-11-2017 02:20 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:
(02-11-2017 01:09 PM)JRsec Wrote: 1. The Big 12 will be absorbed in about 6 - 7 years unless Baylor's situation blows it up sooner.
This seems to be the prevailing opinion among many, but I don't see it happening. Texas wants to be king of a conference, and none of the other four power conferences will allow them to do this. Also, if Texas stays in any conference (in this case, Big 12), that conference will automatically be a P5 conference. If Texas is staying, I doubt Texas Tech is going anywhere as the Pac-12 won't take them without Texas, the B1G and ACC have no reason to take them, and the SEC won't think they will add $50 million to the pot. TCU, WVU, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State really don't have a prospective home other than the Big 12. OU and Kansas are the only schools with options but they likely can't move to the B1G or SEC because OU has an OSU problem. So in review, I don't think any of these schools are going anywhere. Honestly, I think the Big 12 will still push for a network and expand by 2-4 schools (Cincy, UConn, BYU, Houston). The Pac-12 will realize the Texas dream is dead and probably expand by 2 (Nevada and Hawaii).
2. Not all Big 12 schools will make it into a P conference and there is zero legal reason they should once the current GOR expires. All will find conference homes, but whether those homes are P4 or not remains to be seen.
3. I think the next separation to occur will be a refined and better paid G grouping leaving the lower tier current G5 members. Perhaps we get two enhanced conferences out of this.
4. Once we have a P4 and the enhanced G conferences have bowl tie ins and a playoff of their own we will see the P conference schools form more scheduling alliances and increase the total number of P games to 9 or 10.
5. None of the smallest G conferences will die. But they will be reformed once the top G conferences are enhanced.
All of this of course is just my opinion.
If this happens, the MW is down to 10, and the American would likely be down to 9.
This is where things get interesting. The American looks at the MW and begins to raid: Colorado St., Air Force, and then looks to Army (who may accept given it is with the other military schools. They probably add Rice to please Navy for recruting in Texas and give Boise State one last shot to join, which in desperation, they probably accept. That leaves the American at 14 and the MW at 7: Wyoming, UNLV, SDSU, Fresno St., San Jose St., Utah St., and New Mexico. The conference looks around and decides 10 is a good number for CFP purposes. They add UTEP, NMSU (NM is against but realizes it is for the better), and UTSA to get control of Texas from C-USA.
This leaves C-USA with 11 schools, and they reply by offering UMass a take it or leave it situation, which in desperation, they accept. The C-USA schools are: UMass, UAB, FIU, FAU, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, MTSU, Charlotte, North Texas, ODU, Southern Miss, and WKU.
The MAC and Sun Belt don't get touched and sit at 12 and 10 schools, respectively.
They will be negotiating ways out of the Big 12 in 2022 for its expiration in 2024. When the GOR is gone there is no OSU problem.
But I understand the prevailing view of Connecticut and Memphis fans too. You guys want to believe in a scenario that will include more schools. Economics indicate to me that there will be a strengthening of 1 maybe 2 top G5 conferences and that the P4 will settle in somewhere around 60 schools.
And this stuff about our records isn't going to come into play that much. We'll still have one or two slots a year for G5 opposition and those will still be sought pay day games for the opponent. And, with conferences growing there are enough Kansas, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, Duke, and Wake type programs out there to keep some equilibrium.
I'm failing to see what this has to do with the Oklahoma state legislature. When the GOR is gone, OU and KU could only go the B1G or SEC if OSU is still in a P5 (the Big 12). In that scenario, I see 4 schools added with the best brand possible (BYU, UConn, Cincy, Houston). I honestly don't see Texas going anywhere. The bridge with the Pac-12 is burnt. If TX and OU go to the SEC, OSU won't be in a power conference anymore, although the bright spot for me is that the B1G probably takes Kansas and UConn.
It has nothing to do with the Oklahoma Legislature. The boards are different and a state legislature isn't going to relegate two universities to a pay decrease when they can get by with only one being relegated. The whole situation is overblown, and the real issue is probably Boren who will be retired by then anyway. Boren has a building named after him at OSU and his wife has strong OSU ties. The closer we get to the end of their GOR the less pressure there will be on another conference to bargain with OU over OSU, and the less pressure there will be on a new chancellor/president at OU to have to take them along with the Sooners to anywhere they go.
Your reasoning falls apart at that point. If the Big 10 were ever to choose Connecticut it will be for a stronger presence in parts of New England, and not because they whiffed on OU.
There are some here who are sold on the idea that the SEC and Big 10 will only expand by 1 each and divide into three divisions of 5. The argument has merit economically and the divisions could be made very regional which spares expenses for minor sports.
Right now there is an equally good chance that the ACC, Big 10 and SEC could each eventually move to 16 and the PAC stay at 12. Outside of the same schools that the SEC and Big 10 would be interested in, and would have a lot more to offer to those schools than the PAC, there is nobody else that would meet their standards.
Why are so many adamant about a P4? Because it guarantees the remaining P4 conferences annual CFP revenue in slightly greater amounts and makes each of their CCG essentially play ins to the CFP which increases the value of those games as well. That's a lot of motivation for the top conferences to consolidate further.
The timing is also right for Texas. Next year when the FOX contract kicks in for the Big 10 there will be two conferences that Texas could join and get an actual increase in pay over what the LHN had provided them. A SEC or Big 10 with Texas would likely exceed 45 million in payouts thereby finally making the move at least more profitable for the Horns. Until this year that possibility did not exist with regard to the LHN.
So the total number of factors that favor such a move are increasing and those that would indicate further stasis are eroding.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2017 03:09 PM by JRsec.)