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How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
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TexanMark Offline
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Post: #11
RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
2 or 3...depends on the tourney and how teams like UM and UH finish. The bubble is fairly weak this year.
02-10-2017 01:07 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #12
RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 10:49 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Barring an upset in the conference tournament, the AAC is a 2-bid league.

Houston is currently 39 in Pomeroy. The next 5 games will strengthen their SOS:

@ Tulsa
SMU
UConn
@ Memphis
@ Cincy

If Houston holds serve at home (giving them a marquee win over SMU), and beats one of Tulsa or Memphis on the road (while losing at Cincy), their projected RPI heading into the conference tournament is 42.

In other words, Houston has a chance. But they have to win at least 3 of those 5 games.
02-10-2017 03:54 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
Should be 2, but wouldn't assume that. The P6 will get 28-30 at large, 32 others are conference champions. So a 2nd bid is competing for one of 6-8 slots. St.Mary's (assuming Gonzaga gets the WCC) has one of those. A10, MVC, MWC, Ivy will also have solid 2nd candidates. Probably 1 or 2 lower conferences get a bail out for a conference tourney upset.

Yeah, that kind of looks like 2.
02-10-2017 05:55 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 05:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Should be 2, but wouldn't assume that. The P6 will get 28-30 at large, 32 others are conference champions. So a 2nd bid is competing for one of 6-8 slots. St.Mary's (assuming Gonzaga gets the WCC) has one of those. A10, MVC, MWC, Ivy will also have solid 2nd candidates. Probably 1 or 2 lower conferences get a bail out for a conference tourney upset.

Yeah, that kind of looks like 2.

There is no chance in hell that either Cincy or SMU get left out. NONE. Both are locks right now.
02-10-2017 05:58 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 05:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-10-2017 05:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Should be 2, but wouldn't assume that. The P6 will get 28-30 at large, 32 others are conference champions. So a 2nd bid is competing for one of 6-8 slots. St.Mary's (assuming Gonzaga gets the WCC) has one of those. A10, MVC, MWC, Ivy will also have solid 2nd candidates. Probably 1 or 2 lower conferences get a bail out for a conference tourney upset.

Yeah, that kind of looks like 2.

There is no chance in hell that either Cincy or SMU get left out. NONE. Both are locks right now.

I think he was noodling the possibility of a 3rd AAC bid. I think "2nd bid" meant "2nd at-large." Read it that way and see if it makes more sense.
02-11-2017 04:28 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
Two teams in, SMU and Cincy. A 3rd is possible if somebody other than those two win the AAC tournament. Same situation in the WCC where St. Mary's and Gonzaga are locks.

But I count those as the Mid-Major bailout slot or two they reserve in the at-large. 36 at-large total and I count 27 as locked for P6, more likely they get 29 at-large. Barring a upsets the AAC and WCC get 2 of the remaining 7 (one each), I see 2 more likely going to the MVC and A10 (one each). I think one other conference looked probable for a 2nd (MWC is iffy, but likely). As I said that leaves 2 for conference championship upsets.

Right now 2 bids. Conference Tourney upset could get a 3rd.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2017 04:47 PM by Stugray2.)
02-11-2017 04:46 PM
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HuskyU Offline
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RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
4: Cincinnati (at-large), SMU (at-large), Houston (at-large, First Four), UCONN (auto-bid)

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02-11-2017 04:47 PM
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ESE84 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-10-2017 01:07 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  2 or 3...depends on the tourney and how teams like UM and UH finish. The bubble is fairly weak this year.

We had the same debate on the C-USA board about Middle Tennessee as an at large, and also noted the weak bubble. Maybe Middle Tennessee gets in because of their first round upset of 2 seed Michigan State in 2016, if they lose in the C-USA tournament?
02-11-2017 05:42 PM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
(02-11-2017 04:46 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Two teams in, SMU and Cincy. A 3rd is possible if somebody other than those two win the AAC tournament. Same situation in the WCC where St. Mary's and Gonzaga are locks.

But I count those as the Mid-Major bailout slot or two they reserve in the at-large. 36 at-large total and I count 27 as locked for P6, more likely they get 29 at-large. Barring a upsets the AAC and WCC get 2 of the remaining 7 (one each), I see 2 more likely going to the MVC and A10 (one each). I think one other conference looked probable for a 2nd (MWC is iffy, but likely). As I said that leaves 2 for conference championship upsets.

Right now 2 bids. Conference Tourney upset could get a 3rd.

Good breakdown, but my guess is P5 gets more than 27-29, considering ACC alone could have up to 10 of those.
02-11-2017 05:58 PM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #20
RE: How many teams does AAC get in NCAA tourn
I'm going with 3. Houston seems to be on the verge of making bubble noise. Especially if they can beat SMU at home.
02-11-2017 10:26 PM
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