Joined: Mar 2007
I Root For: Syracuse
Location: New England
RE: PAC expanding revenue deficit vs Big Ten and SEC
(02-08-2017 03:10 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:
(02-08-2017 12:58 PM)green Wrote:
(02-08-2017 12:01 PM)YNot Wrote: Could the PAC get Oklahoma, without Texas, if there are sufficient other Central time zone schools?
At the height of the conference realignment drama, all signs pointed to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State leaving — or, at the very least, wanting to leave — for the Pac-12, but in the 11th hour, the Pac-12 decided not to expand any further.
NO THANKS, I'LL PASS
the basic problem was Oklahoma without Texas was not worth it. Still isn't. The Texas market is required. But there were other problems.Namely Oklahoma State was never vetted with P12 Presidents and Chancellors. It does not come close to the Academic standards and even further from the research standards of the Pac-12. When Boren tried to sell OSU and OU to Scott, he was told a quick no. The only way OSU is invited to another conference is in a package of 4 or more schools, and even then I doubt it. If it were KU and OU fine, or ISU and OU perhaps. As R1 schools go, TTU, UVW and K State are really marginal, only ahead of R2 schools like OSU, and Baylor as far as expansion choices go.
B12 value: 1) Texas ... gap ... 2) Oklahoma ... gap ... 3) Kansas
Iowa State and Texas Tech, even Texas Christian (not actually a faith school) for being in Dallas and being selective (despite R2 research level) are possible complimentary additions. The rest are stuck no matter what, as are at least two of the three in the "possible complimentary" category.
This is why I don't see the B12 going away after 2025, even if Texas and Oklahoma, and Kansas leave. Houston, Cincinnati, Brigham Young and Colorado State are available to back fill and bring it back to ten. Throw a Central Florida in there and you are at twelve. For the contract cycle that would take it into the middle of the 2030s, you probably have a Big East of 2004-2012 level deal, half the other power conferences, but light years ahead of the G5. Without a LHN they would be able to finally get a real digital network going, but again they'd be the fifth of five.
Why would any P12 school give up their equity holding for that future? At some point the P12 will have a sale of 50% to a media partner (as likely to be Google or Apple as ESPN, CBS or FOX) who will both improve the revenue flow and give schools a nice injection of at least $50m each, perhaps as much as $100m (and still hold 50% equity). Teir-1 and Teir-2 will also get a bump up before the B12 ever goes to the table. There is zero logic in the idea of moving to the B12.
As described in the article, P12 is falling behind in revenue. A major problem that it faces is that it is a distant 4th behind the SEC, B1G and ACC in population within its conference footprint (although it is way ahead of the B12 in this metric). Adding Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas would move it ahead of both the B1G and SEC in this metric, as well as the ACC if you ignore ND. In addition, adding Central Time Zone schools would allow it to offer games with a noon ET kickoff.
The P10 attempted to add Texas back at the breakup of the SWC. It attempted to add Texas and Oklahoma five years ago. The dynamic remains the same. It will do so again. Its current TV contract is up after the 2023-24 season and the B12 GOR is up after the 2024-25 season. The LHN will still have a few years left, until 2031, but at that point it may be affordable to buyout the contract. Sometime around 2022 or 2023, the P12 is going to make another run at Texas.
I agree, though, that even if the P12 gets its target, the B12 is not going away. It has status as an Autonomy Conference under NCAA rules and as having a Contract Bowl in the CFP. Even with 6 remaining members, it will be able to attract its choice of schools from the AAC, MWC and BYU. With the CFP deal up after the 2025-26 season, as well as the B12's contract with the Sugar Bowl, the B12 could probably still pick up a Contract Bowl in the next iteration of the CFP/NY6, although certainly at a reduced payout as compared to the other P5 conferences.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2017 05:34 PM by orangefan.)