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If it ended today
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swampcougar1 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: If it ended today
I do not rule out losing to anyone. Our starters are getting worn out because our bench gives us nothing. Hulsey being hurt since 4th game of the season is showing up big time now.
02-13-2017 08:07 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #12
RE: If it ended today
(02-13-2017 01:23 PM)gacoug Wrote:  
(02-13-2017 12:43 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  I wonder how many teams other than Northeastern in any conference could finish first or last.


I'd bet there's one in almost every conference, especially the P5 since they have 3 weeks of regular season left.
If any remaining conference game could be won by both, one, or neither team; and any team could win any tiebreaker; 124 teams (35.3 percent of Division I) could finish first or last. Basketball has a P6 (the football P5 plus the Big East who doesn't play football), and 30 out of those 75 teams (exactly 40 percent) could finish first or last, which is higher than the overall rate but not by a lot. However, there are times where a team can pass every team ahead of them but not all of them at the same time. The Mid-American Conference has 12 teams. The 11 teams other than Akron are separated by 4 games and can all finish first or last if remaining opponents and tiebreakers are ignored. 26 out of 32 conferences have at least 1 teams who could finish first or last. I ignored divisions and only cared about if a team could have the best and worst record in its conference.
02-13-2017 08:29 PM
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gacoug Offline
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Post: #13
RE: If it ended today
Three games to go [ games remaining]:

UNCW 12-3 [@Hofstra, vs.Towson, vs.NU]
CofC 11-4 [@NU, vs.Delaware, vs.Drexel]
Towson 10-5 [vs.JMU, @UNCW, @W&M]
W&M 8-7 (beat CofC) [@Delaware, vs.Hofstra, vs.Towson]
Elon 8-7 [@Drexel, vs.NU, vs.Delaware]
NU 7-8 [vs.CofC, @Elon, @UNCW]
JMU 6-9 [@Towson, @Drexel, vsHofstra]
Hofstra 5-10 [vs. UNCW, @W&M, @JMU]
Delaware 5-10 [vs. W&M, @CofC, @Elon]
Drexel 3-12 [vs.Elon, vs.JMU, @CofC]


Possible finishes not considering multiple team tiebreakers:

UNCW 1-3
CofC 1-4 (swept Elon)
Towson 1-6
W&M 2-9
Elon 3-9
NU 3-9
Delaware 4-10
Hofstra 5-10
JMU 6-10
Drexel 7-10

Drexel is the first team to lock up a first round game.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2017 04:08 AM by gacoug.)
02-16-2017 10:49 PM
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gacoug Offline
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Post: #14
RE: If it ended today
Some other notes:
  • UNCW finishes no worse than 2nd with 2 wins or 1 win and a Towson loss
  • CofC finishes no worse than 2nd with 3 wins, 2 wins and a loss by Towson and W&M, or some other scenarios that involve a tie where Elon finishes higher than NU and Towson loses to UNCW specifically
  • W&M finishes no worse than 6th with a win or a JMU loss
  • Elon finishes no worse than 6th with a win or a JMU loss
  • NU finishes no worse than 6th with a combination of 2 wins
  • Delaware finshes no worse than 6th with 3 wins and either W&M, Elon, or NU losing all of the last 3 games
  • Hofstra finishes no worse than 6th with 2 wins and 3 NU losses or 3 wins and 2 NU losses
    JMU needs 2 wins and 3 NU losses or 3 wins and 2 NU losses and cannot tie with Delaware or Hofstra to avoid finishing lower than 6th
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2017 04:07 AM by gacoug.)
02-17-2017 01:32 PM
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Towson2012 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: If it ended today
(02-16-2017 10:49 PM)gacoug Wrote:  Three games to go [ games remaining]:

UNCW 12-3 [@Hofstra, vs.Towson, vs.NU]
CofC 11-4 [@NU, vs.Delaware, vs.Drexel]
Towson 10-5 [vs.JMU, @UNCW, @W&M]
W&M 8-7 (beat CofC) [@Delaware, vs.Hofstra, vs.Towson]
Elon 8-7 [@Drexel, vs.NU, vs.Delaware]
NU 7-8 [vs.CofC, @Elon, @UNCW]
JMU 6-9 (won @ Hofstra) [@Towson, @Drexel, vsHofstra]
Hofstra 5-10 [vs. UNCW, @W&M, @JMU]
Delaware 5-10 [vs. W&M, @CofC, @Elon]
Drexel 3-12 [vs.Elon, vs.JMU, @CofC]


Possible finishes not considering multiple team tiebreakers:

UNCW 1-3
CofC 1-4 (swept Elon)
Towson 1-7
W&M 2-9
Elon 3-9
NU 3-9
Delaware 4-10
Hofstra 5-10
JMU 6-10
Drexel 7-10

Drexel is the first team to lock up a first round game.
I may be missing something here, but Towson can finish no worse than 6? Jmu in 7th is 4 games down with 3 to play.
02-17-2017 09:46 PM
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gacoug Offline
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Post: #16
RE: If it ended today
Yes, I miscounted.
02-18-2017 04:09 AM
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gacoug Offline
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Post: #17
RE: If it ended today
Two games to go [ games remaining]:

UNCW 13-3 [ vs.Towson, vs.NU]
CofC 12-4 [vs.Delaware, vs.Drexel]
Towson 11-5 [@UNCW, @W&M]
W&M 9-7 (beat CofC while Elon swept) [vs.Hofstra, vs.Towson]
Elon 9-7 [vs.NU, vs.Delaware]
NU 7-9 [@Elon, @UNCW]
JMU 6-10 [@Drexel, vs.Hofstra]
Hofstra 5-11 [@W&M, @JMU]
Delaware 5-11 [@CofC, @Elon]
Drexel 3-13 [vs.JMU, @CofC]


Possible finishes not considering multiple team tiebreakers:

UNCW 1-3
CofC 1-3
Towson 1-5
W&M 3-6
Elon 3-6
NU 4-8
JMU 6-9
Hofstra 6-10
Delaware 6-10
Drexel 8-10

Five of the byes have been claimed.
(This post was last modified: 02-19-2017 06:32 PM by gacoug.)
02-19-2017 12:39 AM
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SomebodyToLove Offline
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Post: #18
RE: If it ended today
(02-19-2017 12:39 AM)gacoug Wrote:  Two games to go [ games remaining]:

UNCW 13-3 [ vs.Towson, vs.NU]
CofC 12-4 [vs.Delaware, vs.Drexel]
Towson 11-5 [@UNCW, @W&M]
W&M 9-7 (beat CofC while Elon swept) [vs.Hofstra, vs.Towson]
Elon 9-7 [vs.NU, vs.Delaware]
NU 7-9 [@Elon, @UNCW]
JMU 6-10 [@Drexel, vs.Hofstra]
Hofstra 5-11 [@W&M, @JMU]
Delaware 5-11 [@CofC, @Elon]
Drexel 3-13 [vs.JMU, @CofC]


Possible finishes not considering multiple team tiebreakers:

UNCW 1-3
CofC 1-3
Towson 1-5
W&M 3-5
Elon 3-6
NU 5-8 (W&M has tiebreaker)
JMU 6-9
Hofstra 6-10
Delaware 6-10
Drexel 8-10

Five of the byes have been claimed.

I think NU has the tiebreaker over W&M. Not that it'll happen, but if NU finished 2-0 and W&M 0-2 then its:
H2H: tie
UNCW: tie
CoC: tie
Towson: NU adv
(This post was last modified: 02-19-2017 03:12 AM by SomebodyToLove.)
02-19-2017 03:12 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #19
RE: If it ended today
If UNCW beats Towson but loses to Northeastern
And
CoC wins out
And
Elon wins out
And Towson loses at William and Mary
Then
The #1 seed will be decided by highest RPI

Correction made based on info from EvanJ
(This post was last modified: 02-19-2017 09:25 AM by solohawks.)
02-19-2017 07:38 AM
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CoastGuardHawk06 Offline
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Post: #20
If it ended today
(02-19-2017 07:38 AM)solohawks Wrote:  If UNCW beats Towson but loses to Northeastern
And
CoC wins out
And
Elon wins out
And Towson loses at William and Mary
Then
The #1 seed will be decided by coin toss

Who would have the NIT ticket?
02-19-2017 08:16 AM
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