(02-03-2017 07:08 PM)Gravy Owl Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 05:29 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  Whether good or bad, we have recruited players by seeking to identify those with potential who could project to be good players in their 4th/5th years.

Well, that’s what they say.

But the players who best exemplify this are some of the walk-on entrants (Kutzler, Nordstrom). Other than them, the list of high-level players is mostly guys who contributed or even starred early — not necessarily 1st year, but usually by sophomore season.

(I should mention that Travis Bradshaw was all of the above: a walk-on entrant who became a productive starter for a 10-win team as a redshirt freshman. He had a fantastic career despite being injured his entire senior season.)

Aren't walk-ons mostly recruited too?

(02-06-2017 11:32 AM)owl40 Wrote:  My $.02 is three points on this topic.

1) Rice vs. the National Stage
If you want a depressing read, take a look through this list of the top 100 recruits nationally from 2007 and where they are 10-years later. A few dead, a few in jail, a few stars, a few made it to the NFL for a cup of coffee, but common thread is vast majority did not live up-to-the-hype. Saw zero doctors, lawyers, execs, engineers, etc. on this list despite getting a 'free' education. Would be great to compare that to the Rice 2007 class and where they are now as men vs. 18-year old kids.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/sports/...the-signs/

2) Recruiting Rankings
I don't put any stock in the recruiting services given the commercial interests to the school memberships (hence Rice at bottom) and following what the top programs do. Seen countless times that a 3-star kid becomes 2-star after committing to Rice or a kid commits to Rice in the camp process and does not put himself out there and thus does not get the star recognition. Conversely, a 2-star kid gets a visit by Nick Saban and now is a 4-star kid. Saw great example of this hype '5-star' factor from Levi Jones (Austin Westlake) who committed to USC after a high profile live, ESPN commit process. He was actually a two-star kid who did not make all-district as a Jr. going to a top-100 national kid after the season by clever marketing of himself and his bloodlines getting attention. All of this tells me that star rankings are in reality 'lag' indicators following what is going in press vs. being 'lead' indicators of future success which is what most people think they are (incorrectly).

3) Data after-the-fact for Rice recruits
Can't remember who did the analysis (Gravy?) on two vs. three stars at Rice and then showing that probability of NFL and All-CUSA is/was actually higher for two-stars vs. three. Great data on Parliament recruiting thread if you go over there to read it.

Bottom line: "Star" rankings not a great predictor of future success.

Obviously it is a crap shoot. I believe one of the real indicators is keeping the kids we get an initial committ from. They have cleared the vetting process, but ir we lose the best of those ( as apparently happened this year) we will not be competitive. Why would someone choose rice over Duke, or Northwestern, much less Stanford. Heck, even TCU can tout a bigger alumni network in terms of looking for a job.
It would be great to have the marketing people research people form ~ 10 years ago, and get the word out to help battle this

(02-03-2017 07:08 PM)Gravy Owl Wrote:  

(02-03-2017 05:29 PM)Pan95 Wrote:  Whether good or bad, we have recruited players by seeking to identify those with potential who could project to be good players in their 4th/5th years.

Well, that’s what they say.

But the players who best exemplify this are some of the walk-on entrants (Kutzler, Nordstrom). Other than them, the list of high-level players is mostly guys who contributed or even starred early — not necessarily 1st year, but usually by sophomore season.

(I should mention that Travis Bradshaw was all of the above: a walk-on entrant who became a productive starter for a 10-win team as a redshirt freshman. He had a fantastic career despite being injured his entire senior season.)

That's a good point Gravy Owl. I think of guys like Charles Ross as an example of someone coming in and having immediately playing time as a freshman, but playing with a larger impact as a 4th/5th year player. But then I also think of Ian Gray, Mario Hull, and Cody Bauer as guys who really shone in their 5th year in comparison to their earlier years.

(02-06-2017 11:32 AM)owl40 Wrote:  Bottom line: "Star" rankings not a great predictor of future success.

Agree with all your points but I am quite sure there still is a pretty strong correlation between star ranking and success at next level. Yes there are many overrated 4 star busts and underrated 2 star surprises. The Sagarin rankings of teams and the average star rankings of their rosters are likely pretty similar. Exceptions do exist...I am sure WMU likely far outplayed their recruiting star level last year.

(02-06-2017 11:32 AM)owl40 Wrote:  If you want a depressing read, take a look through this list of the top 100 recruits nationally from 2007 and where they are 10-years later. A few dead, a few in jail, a few stars, a few made it to the NFL for a cup of coffee, but common thread is vast majority did not live up-to-the-hype. Saw zero doctors, lawyers, execs, engineers, etc. on this list despite getting a 'free' education. Would be great to compare that to the Rice 2007 class and where they are now as men vs. 18-year old kids.

Rice should do this, every year, and get the word out as part of its recruiting message.

I figured I would take a look at the 2007 class... Most of this is from LinkedIn.

Keshawn Carrington-Piping Preservation Engineer
Taylor Dupree-Operations Assistant with Dallas Cowboys
Kody Emmert-Business Development in Oil Field Services
Michael Fuda-Mortgage loan officer
Jake Hicks-Home Health Recruiter (unclear if he graduated based on LinkedIn)
Justin Hill-Running Backs coach @Tulsa
Brent Hotard-Oil Field Services Manager
Chris Jones-Was a GA at TxSt until 2014.. Unclear what he's up to now.
Randy Kitchens-Real Estate Agent
Joseph Leary-Fitness trainer
Kramer Lucio-Manager for an Energy IT company
Will Norris-Can't find anything about him
Cheta Ozougwu-A few years in the NFL, now a real estate investor.
Tyler Parish-Reservoir Engineer... Got a second Bachelor's at OU after graduating from Rice
Davon Primus (Allen)-Bounced around playing arena football. Unclear of current position.
Tanner Shuck-Lives in Dubai. Unclear what he does for work.
Tyler Smith-Lives in Austin-Unclear what he does for work.
Scott Solomon-Spent a few years in the NFL
Brian Stacey-Energy/Marine insurance agent
Cameron Thompson-Current GA at Rice
Brandon Tolbert-Physical therapy technician
Aaron Williams-"Mental Skills" Trainer

(02-06-2017 09:40 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I figured I would take a look at the 2007 class... Most of this is from LinkedIn.

Keshawn Carrington-Piping Preservation Engineer
Taylor Dupree-Operations Assistant with Dallas Cowboys
Kody Emmert-Business Development in Oil Field Services
Michael Fuda-Mortgage loan officer
Jake Hicks-Home Health Recruiter (unclear if he graduated based on LinkedIn)
Justin Hill-Running Backs coach @Tulsa
Brent Hotard-Oil Field Services Manager
Chris Jones-Was a GA at TxSt until 2014.. Unclear what he's up to now.
Randy Kitchens-Real Estate Agent
Joseph Leary-Fitness trainer
Kramer Lucio-Manager for an Energy IT company
Will Norris-Can't find anything about him
Cheta Ozougwu-A few years in the NFL, now a real estate investor.
Tyler Parish-Reservoir Engineer... Got a second Bachelor's at OU after graduating from Rice
Davon Primus (Allen)-Bounced around playing arena football. Unclear of current position.
Tanner Shuck-Lives in Dubai. Unclear what he does for work.
Tyler Smith-Lives in Austin-Unclear what he does for work.
Scott Solomon-Spent a few years in the NFL
Brian Stacey-Energy/Marine insurance agent
Cameron Thompson-Current GA at Rice
Brandon Tolbert-Physical therapy technician
Aaron Williams-"Mental Skills" Trainer

Tanner Shuck was a crossfit trainer after working oilfield services for a few years last I heard.

(02-06-2017 09:40 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  I figured I would take a look at the 2007 class... Most of this is from LinkedIn.
Keshawn Carrington-Piping Preservation Engineer
Taylor Dupree-Operations Assistant with Dallas Cowboys
Kody Emmert-Business Development in Oil Field Services
Michael Fuda-Mortgage loan officer
Jake Hicks-Home Health Recruiter (unclear if he graduated based on LinkedIn)
Justin Hill-Running Backs coach @Tulsa
Brent Hotard-Oil Field Services Manager
Chris Jones-Was a GA at TxSt until 2014.. Unclear what he's up to now.
Randy Kitchens-Real Estate Agent
Joseph Leary-Fitness trainer
Kramer Lucio-Manager for an Energy IT company
Will Norris-Can't find anything about him
Cheta Ozougwu-A few years in the NFL, now a real estate investor.
Tyler Parish-Reservoir Engineer... Got a second Bachelor's at OU after grauating from Rice
Davon Primus (Allen)-Bounced around playing arena football. Unclear of current position.
Tanner Shuck-Lives in Dubai. Unclear what he does for work.
Tyler Smith-Lives in Austin-Unclear what he does for work.
Scott Solomon-Spent a few years in the NFL
Brian Stacey-Energy/Marine insurance agent
Cameron Thompson-Current GA at Rice
Brandon Tolbert-Physical therapy technician
Aaron Williams-"Mental Skills" Trainer

I would hazard a guess that is a much more impressive list than where the Top 100 from 2007 are today.

Will Norris - President & Founder at R10 Ministries Inc.

(02-03-2017 09:48 AM)Pan95 Wrote:  Not that it matters but NolaOwl's post is of the 2016 class not the 2017 class. The reason it doesn't matter much is that the 2017 class is ranked 122nd.

Ah...you got me!