(02-21-2017 09:29 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  

(02-21-2017 09:18 AM)cr11owl Wrote:  Who said Jeremy Jones would've been a major contributor here? ... 75% of the teams in the P5 could live off the players that don't contribute at Duke (or Kentucky or Kansas)....

I think your two sentences above contradict each other. Gonzaga is #1 in the country and certainly a peer or Duke, Kentucky and Kansas.

If 75% of P5 schools could live off their guys who don't contribute (e.g, Jeremy Jones) then it stands to reason he would contribute here, since we are ranked higher than only 6 P5 schools (in Sagarin).

If the target for year 3 is top 150, how many years could Rhoades be here without getting to NCAA tournament before you would say you were disappointed that we haven't been yet?

Here is some data to inform your answer

consider a peer group of 13 CUSA schools, 12 Southland schools and 12 Sun Belt schools--total of 37 peers. 25 of them, fully 2/3, have been at least once in this century, whereas the Owls, IIRC, have not even made a conference tournament final during that period.

Or another way of asking the question might be this--was 16 years too long, too short, or just about the right amount of time to give Willis a shot to get to the dance?

Gonzaga isn't in the peer group of Duke. They don't have anywhere near the talent level of Duke, UK, Kansas... etc. Obi was better than Jones. Not even close if you ever watched them play. As mentioned above Jones plays in blowouts because Gonzaga has a terrible schedule. We are aiming to be Gonzaga. OOC with maybe 2 good teams. Bad conference. Rack up wins.

If we ever had the talent level of Duke we would be undefeated in CUSA and definitely any OOC schedule we've had recently.

(02-21-2017 10:07 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  Just to clarify a bit where I stand:

3. The UTEP loss has me quite blue--probably overly so--as I update my Bayesian probabilities of our getting to the dance this year and find them very low (ie, less than 1 in 100)

4. The consensus that Egor is not coming back sinks me even lower, as it seems all but certain we will take a large step back next season. I could be made wrong by a surprise in recruiting and/or by substantial development among players getting light minutes this year.

I'm with you on 3 & 4. Of course, the UTEP loss looks worse on paper (given their dreadful start to the season) then if you consider their recent play (including beating MTSU). And while I'm not sure Egor's departure will result in a large step back next season ... it is hard to predict the team taking another big step forward without him. Without him, the easy guess is that next season will resemble this season. Lots of guys taking a small step forward, but hard to replace one of the stars on the team.

(02-21-2017 11:10 AM)mrbig Wrote:  

(02-21-2017 10:07 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  Just to clarify a bit where I stand:

3. The UTEP loss has me quite blue--probably overly so--as I update my Bayesian probabilities of our getting to the dance this year and find them very low (ie, less than 1 in 100)

4. The consensus that Egor is not coming back sinks me even lower, as it seems all but certain we will take a large step back next season. I could be made wrong by a surprise in recruiting and/or by substantial development among players getting light minutes this year.

I'm with you on 3 & 4. Of course, the UTEP loss looks worse on paper (given their dreadful start to the season) then if you consider their recent play (including beating MTSU). And while I'm not sure Egor's departure will result in a large step back next season ... it is hard to predict the team taking another big step forward without him. Without him, the easy guess is that next season will resemble this season. Lots of guys taking a small step forward, but hard to replace one of the stars on the team.

Here's to hoping we see another freshman phenom step in, a la Evans, or we have someone come off the bench who steps up in a big way.

(02-21-2017 11:20 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  

(02-21-2017 11:10 AM)mrbig Wrote:  

(02-21-2017 10:07 AM)MemOwl Wrote:  4. The consensus that Egor is not coming back sinks me even lower, as it seems all but certain we will take a large step back next season. I could be made wrong by a surprise in recruiting and/or by substantial development among players getting light minutes this year.

... while I'm not sure Egor's departure will result in a large step back next season ... it is hard to predict the team taking another big step forward without him. Without him, the easy guess is that next season will resemble this season. Lots of guys taking a small step forward, but hard to replace one of the stars on the team.

Here's to hoping we see another freshman phenom step in, a la Evans, or we have someone come off the bench who steps up in a big way.

Does anyone have this year's +/- stats on Egor (and the rest of our team)?

After tonights games (KenPom ratings are from last week):
MTSU (14-1): @UAB (144); v FIU (282); v FAU (257)
LaTech (13-3): @Rice (121); v USM (330)
ODU (10-5): WKU (239); @UTEP (238); @UTSA (274)
UTEP (10-5): @FIU (282); v ODU (120); v Char (226)
Rice (9-6): v LaTech (91); @ Marsh (154); @WKU (239)
Marshall (8-7): @Char (226); v Rice (121); v UNT (308)
UAB (8-7): v MTSU (52); v FAU (257); v FIU (282)

Analysis/Prediction:
(1) MTSU easy
(2) LaTech has clinched 2nd due to tie-breakers over UTEP & ODU.
(3) UTEP, because they get ODU at home
(4) Even with a loss to UTEP, and even if Rice wins the remaining 3 games, ODU still owns the tie-breaker over Rice.
(5) Marshall can pass Rice by beating us next week, thereby winning the tie-breaker. With the exception of a 13-point home loss to UTEP, Marshall has played well at home.
(6) I have no idea what to expect from Rice over the next 3 games. The team has continued to show a lot of inconsistency within games. Hard to imagine them winning all 3 remaining games, the way they have been playing. None of them are gimmees. Likely loss to LaTech.
(7) UAB likely loses to MTSU this Saturday, preventing any chance of moving up.

If my (updated and less optimistic) predictions come true, Rice would face the #11 seed, looking like SoMiss, FAU, or Charlotte. Charlotte has been a great matchup for Rice so far. SoMiss and FAU less so. A potential 2nd round matchup would be against #3 seed UTEP.

I think a second round against UTEP would favor us. That loss the other night was solely due to our bad shooting. If we get that far, likely we will have recovered from our shooting malaise and I would like that matchup. UTEP on the road is very beatable.

Rice is assured of finishing in the top 7 of the conference. One more win will get us top 6. If Rice beats Marshall, we'll finish 5th or better.

As stated on the La Tech game thread, to finish top 4, we'll need to sweep the road games next week and then have the ODU-UTEP loser also lose its other game. That seems rather unlikely for UTEP. Perhaps ODU could lose 2 in Texas but it seems more likely we'll finish 5-7 and be the designated home team vs. Charlotte, FAU or USM (who all could finish 6-12 and tied for the 10th through 12th place spots).

(02-26-2017 12:34 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Rice is assured of finishing in the top 7 of the conference. One more win will get us top 6. If Rice beats Marshall, we'll finish 5th or better.

As stated on the La Tech game thread, to finish top 4, we'll need to sweep the road games next week and then have the ODU-UTEP loser also lose its other game. That seems rather unlikely for UTEP. Perhaps ODU could lose 2 in Texas but it seems more likely we'll finish 5-7 and be the designated home team vs. Charlotte, FAU or USM (who all could finish 6-12 and tied for the 10th through 12th place spots).

I think we're destined to open against Charlotte. 0-3 against them last year, and 3-0 this, will be the summary of our improvement.